ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

Relaxing shear is not good. A strengthening TS at landfall is far different than a disorganized lopsided blob.

Exactly. To this very day no way I'm convinced Gabrielle was not a Cat 1. I know the NHC still disagrees but man the damage near me was unreal, including plywood blown in that was covering my windows due to flying debris.

[tropicwatch]

Looks to be organizing if you ask me, storms now blowing up on southern side.

Noticed that a little while ago.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-84&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10

[stormhunter7]

pretty confident that the coc is reforming to the east and under the deep convection.any one else think so?

[psyclone]

Andrea made landfall @ 992mb and there was no need for a hurricane watch. this is a large system so the pressure gradient is likely to remain slack. IMO. as for the east coast if the system amps up offshore the coast will be on the weak side of the system. OTOH, a track more to the left would weaken it with land interaction. So it's tough for me to envision things being too rough (from a sustained wind standpoint) for folks up there. Were I in a boat...I'd be headed for safe harbor...now.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cuda]

Relaxing shear is not good. A strengthening TS at landfall is far different than a disorganized lopsided blob.

Would this change the track at all, or are we still looking at landfall north of tampa?

[WPBWeather]

Recon finds windshift much further east and south than earlier estimated by the NHC on its latest advisory.
Just as I thought

That was a good call. Now I wonder as the LLC and MLC migrate together as it appears to be at an angle, if we end up with a big change in trajectory later.

Not to wish northern neighbors ill winds, but I hope for no trajectory changes.

[NDG]

Look at the cold cloud tops forecasted by the GFS for tomorrow night across northern and central FL!

[MetroMike]

Also, with the models suddenly indicating a stronger Colin making landfall on the peninsula by tomorrow evening, I would have to believe the Storm Prediction Center out in Oklahoma City will probably increase the threat level for tornadoes from slight to marginal for the next 36 hours. I am really growing concerned about the tornado threat all across the peninsula the next 36 hours or so.

SPC already has most of Florida in a Slight risk for severe weather. upgraded from marginal earlier in the day.

[psyclone]

I expect the track to tilt a bit more to the right with time...closer to Levy County (Cedar Key area). Sheared, lopsided storms tend to tick right with time. Will be fascinating to watch as always.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[sponger]

Relaxing shear is not good. A strengthening TS at landfall is far different than a disorganized lopsided blob.

Would this change the track at all, or are we still looking at landfall north of tampa?

All bets are off until we get a defined center. However, the model agreement gives a high confidence of track.

[northjaxpro]

Andrea made landfall @ 992mb and there was no need for a hurricane watch. this is a large system so the pressure gradient is likely to remain slack. IMO. as for the east coast if the system amps up offshore the coast will be on the weak side of the system. OTOH, a track more to the left would weaken it with land interaction. So it's tough for me to envision things being too rough (from a sustained wind standpoint) for folks up there. Were I in a boat...I'd be headed for safe harbor...now.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Good assessment psyclone with Andrea. The synoptics all make the difference. But, remember, if it is one thing I have learned with this science is that these tropical cyclones can and have defied the odds at times. I still would not totally discount Colin making a run at minimum hurricane status , especially if upper conditions with shear turn out to be not as crippling as thought. I think it may be a brief window there for Colin to make it to Cat 1 off the SE ATL coast just before transitioning extratropical during the day Tuesday. If Colin can make it offshore into the Gulf Stream on Tuesday, he may achieve it. Just my hunch.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052233
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 43 20160605
222400 2239N 08755W 9670 00348 0056 +238 +236 274006 008 016 001 01
222430 2239N 08757W 9659 00351 0054 +240 +238 292007 008 012 000 00
222500 2239N 08759W 9666 00348 //// +237 //// 302005 007 012 000 05
222530 2240N 08800W 9675 00339 //// +239 //// 328004 006 008 000 05
222600 2241N 08801W 9659 00354 0055 +238 +233 323003 004 010 000 01
222630 2242N 08803W 9655 00361 0059 +240 +226 355005 005 009 000 00
222700 2243N 08804W 9667 00351 0060 +241 +231 348003 004 009 000 03
222730 2245N 08805W 9664 00353 0059 +240 +236 332003 003 009 000 00
222800 2246N 08806W 9664 00354 0060 +240 +236 339003 003 010 000 00
222830 2247N 08808W 9663 00355 0060 +241 +236 336003 004 010 000 00
222900 2249N 08809W 9664 00353 0058 +244 +233 330004 004 008 000 00
222930 2250N 08810W 9664 00351 0058 +244 +233 330003 004 008 000 03
223000 2251N 08812W 9664 00354 0059 +241 +236 005002 002 011 000 00
223030 2253N 08813W 9664 00351 0059 +242 +235 039001 002 011 001 00
223100 2254N 08814W 9664 00351 0059 +240 +235 071003 004 010 000 00
223130 2255N 08816W 9664 00353 0059 +240 +235 054005 005 009 000 03
223200 2257N 08817W 9666 00350 0058 +240 +237 045005 006 010 000 03
223230 2258N 08818W 9664 00353 0058 +240 +235 052007 008 011 000 00
223300 2259N 08820W 9664 00351 0058 +240 +237 046007 008 010 000 01
223330 2301N 08821W 9666 00350 0058 +238 +236 056008 009 010 000 01
$$

[northjaxpro]

Look at the cold cloud tops forecasted by the GFS for tomorrow night across northern and central FL!

Ouch, that looks nasty over my region tomorrow night. The worst is right over Northeast Florida. That is the period tomorrow night when the worst effects move through here.

[cycloneye]

[northjaxpro]

Also, with the models suddenly indicating a stronger Colin making landfall on the peninsula by tomorrow evening, I would have to believe the Storm Prediction Center out in Oklahoma City will probably increase the threat level for tornadoes from slight to marginal for the next 36 hours. I am really growing concerned about the tornado threat all across the peninsula the next 36 hours or so.

SPC already has most of Florida in a Slight risk for severe weather. upgraded from marginal earlier in the day.

OK. I missed the earlier upgrade SPC did earlier today. Thanks for informing the forum of that.

[sponger]

Relaxing shear is not good. A strengthening TS at landfall is far different than a disorganized lopsided blob.

Exactly. To this very day no way I'm convinced Gabrielle was not a Cat 1. I know the NHC still disagrees but man the damage near me was unreal, including plywood blown in that was covering my windows due to flying debris.

It took nearly a decade to admit Andrew was a five. Whether is was or not, you likely experienced cat 1 gusts. Wilma was labeled as a 1 but first hand observation of damage tells me they were absolutely close to Cat 2.

[johngaltfla]

For those of you who wonder how we get rid of the snowbirds in June, it's forecasts like this from Accuweather that we have never seen this early in June that get them off our beaches in Sarasota County:

[ronjon]

Wow GFS has trended stronger indeed, now strong TS in the NE Gulf.

Looks to me on SAT that the upper level trough over SE Texas is weakening and retrograding slowly SW. This might be the reason GFS now showing strengthening.

[northjaxpro]

Wow GFS has trended stronger indeed, now strong TS in the NE Gulf.

Looks to me on SAT that the upper level trough over SE Texas is weakening and retrograding slowly SW. This might be the reason GFS now showing strengthening.

I mentioned this myself in a post a short time ago. The upper trough across the Ohio Valley currently was supposed to dig southward , but has yet to so so, moving more east throughout the day. That was supposed to induced very strong shear over Colin, but because that has not happened, and the upper trough down into Northern Mexico has retrograded southwest, shear currently is not as bad for now. This is allowing Colin to ventilate much better than anyone anticipated at this point, and the models are now picking up on this.

[stormhunter7]

looks like pressue may be around 1001mb now? will see soon