ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051723
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 12 20160605
171400 2408N 08954W 3926 07714 0398 -153 -225 211019 023 030 000 00
171430 2406N 08954W 3927 07712 0399 -157 -201 214021 022 030 000 00
171500 2403N 08955W 3926 07716 0399 -156 -238 213026 028 030 000 00
171530 2401N 08955W 3926 07714 0398 -151 -269 218028 028 030 000 00
171600 2359N 08955W 3925 07717 0399 -154 -248 219028 028 029 000 00
171630 2357N 08956W 3927 07713 0400 -153 -238 216027 029 029 000 00
171700 2354N 08956W 3926 07715 0401 -152 -260 219026 027 028 000 00
171730 2352N 08956W 3926 07717 0401 -150 -234 220027 028 028 000 00
171800 2350N 08957W 3926 07714 0400 -151 -257 219027 027 028 000 00
171830 2347N 08957W 3926 07715 0400 -153 -240 219026 027 027 000 00
171900 2345N 08958W 3926 07715 0400 -155 -212 220023 024 025 000 00
171930 2343N 08958W 3927 07714 0401 -154 -197 217024 025 025 000 00
172000 2340N 08958W 3926 07717 0402 -153 -257 218025 026 025 000 00
172030 2338N 08959W 3926 07718 0402 -157 -221 219025 026 025 000 00
172100 2336N 08959W 3926 07717 0402 -158 -228 221024 025 024 000 00
172130 2333N 08959W 3926 07718 0402 -157 -228 222021 023 024 000 00
172200 2331N 09000W 3927 07717 0403 -156 -228 211021 021 025 000 00
172230 2329N 09000W 3925 07721 0404 -159 -233 212022 023 024 001 00
172300 2326N 09000W 3927 07718 0405 -153 -221 213024 024 025 000 00
172330 2324N 09000W 3994 07605 0408 -144 -213 212023 025 022 001 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051733
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 13 20160605
172400 2322N 09000W 4155 07303 0389 -128 -182 204020 022 021 000 00
172430 2319N 09000W 4333 06984 0370 -113 -132 201016 017 020 000 00
172500 2317N 09000W 4509 06681 0351 -092 -134 193020 021 021 000 00
172530 2315N 09000W 4696 06366 0332 -079 -090 182015 021 021 001 01
172600 2312N 09000W 4895 06040 0311 -059 -059 173012 013 022 004 01
172630 2310N 09000W 5091 05731 0291 -041 -051 175016 017 022 002 00
172700 2308N 09000W 5293 05428 0275 -024 -037 175018 018 017 000 03
172730 2306N 09000W 5577 05012 0061 +001 -013 174014 017 /// /// 03
172800 2304N 09000W 5878 04588 0067 +026 +008 196010 012 /// /// 03
172830 2301N 09000W 6183 04181 0072 +052 +022 218013 013 /// /// 03
172900 2259N 09000W 6508 03760 0072 +079 +042 234009 012 /// /// 03
172930 2256N 09000W 6849 03337 0072 +104 +066 255007 007 /// /// 03
173000 2254N 09000W 7196 02924 0089 +115 +090 286008 009 /// /// 03
173030 2252N 09000W 7530 02538 0091 +133 +109 292006 007 /// /// 03
173100 2249N 09000W 7848 02193 0103 +146 +129 301006 006 /// /// 03
173130 2247N 09000W 8221 01797 0106 +161 +152 331007 008 /// /// 05
173200 2245N 09000W 8602 01407 //// +157 //// 346012 013 /// /// 05
173230 2243N 09000W 8897 01101 //// +189 //// 336010 012 /// /// 05
173300 2241N 09000W 9188 00823 //// +206 //// 348010 011 /// /// 05
173330 2238N 09000W 9454 00573 //// +222 //// 349010 010 022 001 01
$$
;

Plane descending.

[cycloneye]

[TheAustinMan]

Cancun now reporting WSW winds 7, gusting to 10.

Current surface observations support NHC's center placement for Tropical Depression Three. Hopefully recon will help to definitively locate the center of circulation. There may also be a center reformation, as is typical for storms of this variety.

you see forming in other area?

It could happen (a center could form under the convection), but right now the overall circulation is very broad and disorganized. Given the persistent strong upper-level winds from the southwest it would take some time for the storm to consolidate about an organizing center.

[cycloneye]

Plane has decended to operational altitude.Let's see what it finds.

[wxman57]

Here are some projected tide levels for Florida. Not really a "storm surge". More of an increase in tides due to moderate onshore flow tomorrow/Tuesday morning. Widespread area of 25-35 mph winds blowing into the coast by tomorrow afternoon.

[wxman57]

Plane has decended to operational altitude.Let's see what it finds.

I'll bet they have a hard time pinpointing a center. I'm sure they'll find some SW-W winds, but it's very poorly organized for now. Should become a TS tomorrow morning, though.

[alienstorm]

Looking at the high resolution loop I placed the center at Latitude= 21.75° N Longitude= 86.32° W which is east of the center fix by NHC. Recon should be able to validate.

[alienstorm]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMMZuxX915.jpg

[RL3AO]

Heres a good way to see the shear as the recon plane descended



Winds go from SW at 25 to S at 10 to W at 5 as the plane goes from 300 mb to 500 mb to 850 mb.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looking at the high resolution loop I placed the center at Latitude= 21.75° N Longitude= 86.32° W which is east of the center fix by NHC. Recon should be able to validate.

I see what you're seeing, but I'm not sure that feature is surface level. That said, it's where the vorticity is concentrated, so theoretically that feature should slowly take over from the low the NHC is focused on.

[ronjon]

As for the storm surge threat, the extratropical storm surge model is showing areas of 4 to 5 feet above MSL which would mean minor coastal flooding. The tropical/P-surge guidance will probably be kept internal with this system. So probably 1 to 3' of surge N of Tampa and 1 to 2' south of Tampa, which is what the advisory has.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My worry is tides are already astronomically high as today's early afternoon high tide at +3.8 ft above mean low water here in Hernando Beach. It's already close to topping sea walls. Imagine 30-40 mph winds on top of that tomorrow afternoon!

[CrazyC83]

00
URNT15 KNHC 051743
AF307 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 14 20160605
173400 2237N 09000W 9642 00388 //// +234 //// 338009 010 021 000 01
173430 2235N 09000W 9675 00351 //// +235 //// 338009 009 018 000 01
173500 2233N 09000W 9663 00362 //// +235 //// 343009 010 019 000 01
173530 2231N 09000W 9664 00361 //// +235 //// 340009 010 019 000 05
173600 2230N 08959W 9658 00365 //// +235 //// 348008 009 /// /// 05
173630 2230N 08958W 9667 00359 0069 +237 +228 352007 007 018 001 00
173700 2231N 08956W 9663 00360 0067 +237 +231 350007 007 018 000 00
173730 2231N 08954W 9664 00359 0067 +236 +232 348008 008 017 001 00
173800 2231N 08953W 9664 00360 0067 +236 +233 346008 008 017 000 01
173830 2232N 08951W 9663 00361 //// +235 //// 346008 008 017 000 01
173900 2232N 08949W 9665 00358 //// +235 //// 347009 009 017 000 01
173930 2232N 08948W 9666 00359 0067 +236 +233 346009 009 017 000 01
174000 2232N 08946W 9664 00359 0067 +236 +233 348009 009 016 000 01
174030 2233N 08945W 9664 00359 0067 +240 +232 344009 009 016 001 00
174100 2233N 08943W 9662 00360 0067 +240 +229 343008 009 015 000 00
174130 2233N 08941W 9663 00360 0067 +240 +234 341008 008 014 000 00
174200 2233N 08939W 9664 00358 0065 +240 +235 342007 008 015 002 00
174230 2233N 08938W 9665 00358 0065 +240 +236 341007 007 012 000 00
174300 2233N 08936W 9663 00360 0065 +240 +234 329007 007 012 000 00
174330 2232N 08934W 9664 00356 0064 +240 +236 330006 007 012 000 00
$$
;

Not going to get a fix before the 1 pm advisory.

[cycloneye]

[tropicwatch]

You can see the broad circulation but also a smaller circulation northeast of Yucatan. Whether it is at the surface or not I don't know.

Close to live visible loop.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21.5&lon=-88&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[SouthDadeFish]

There's a pretty interesting mid-level swirl on visible imagery just NE of Cancun. If convection can continue to persist in that area, I could see a surface circulation consolidating just to the W of the mid-level swirl, due to the environmental wind shear.

[RL3AO]

My worry is tides are already astronomically high as today's early afternoon high tide at +3.8 ft above mean low water here in Hernando Beach. It's already close to topping sea walls. Imagine 30-40 mph winds on top of that tomorrow afternoon!

Yeah, I was seeing how much higher the water is already running. If the system develops a little more than expected, we may see the surge products get issued.

[wxman57]

Looking at the high resolution loop I placed the center at Latitude= 21.75° N Longitude= 86.32° W which is east of the center fix by NHC. Recon should be able to validate.

I see what you're looking at - that may be a mid-level rotation. Look at the low clouds streaming eastward along the northern coast of the Yucatan. That points to a center farther west.

[cycloneye]

RL3AO,west wind found but only at 2kts.

280001 002