ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Would a re-consolidation to the NE affect it's potential landfall location in Florida, and if so, how?

[northjaxpro]

Would a re-consolidation to the NE affect it's potential landfall location in Florida, and if so, how?

It could cause a shift a bit to the right (east )of the projected track of the center , but it would also keep the system from interacting much with land for the next 24-48 hours. Personally, I don't think the LLC is well defined at this juncture, and we won't know until Recon gets in there to be 100% certain. However, satellite presentation, ship and buoy reports could gives us indications later this evening if the LLC is reforming bit to the northeast

[RL3AO]

Not sure how much of a reformation this is vs the expected low finally developing there. Like Levi said in his video, that gyre off Honduras was never supposed to be the low that develops into a TC.

[SFLcane]

I agree let's wait for recon considering things are very disorganized. May bring higher rain totals closer to South Florida. Looks to be slowly organizing though

[gatorcane]

Wherever the center ends up establishing itself, you can see how large the system is with heavy rainfall and squalls extending well to the east which would put probably the entire FL peninsula under the convection when it moves northeast in the eastern Gulf

[gatorcane]

Hmmm looks like the greatest low-level vorticity is quite a bit NE...

Also look how much more vorticity there is now than just a few hours ago.

[northjaxpro]

Well gatorcane, there is no question that our system is organizing for sure. There has been a considerable increase in the low level vorticity from this time 24 hours ago most definitely. I think when Recon gets in there tomorrow, the likelihood of them finding an established closed off LLC is rather good. I mentioned this earlier and now it is really evident in how outflow is really decent on the northeast and east side of the developing storm. This also is likely foretelling the asymmetric structure of the system in a couple of days as shear will affect the cyclone after Monday morning.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking better, and 93L appears to becoming better defined, with some curved band features but still a bit elongated diagonally. Not classifiable yet though.

[StormHunter72]

Too much shear for anything to "develop" maybe a sheared tropical storm. ULL will keep it in check.

[Nimbus]

The naked eddy that is now heading inland over the Yucatan doesn't look like a dominant LLC.
There is a burst of convection ESE of the eddy which might form a LLC if the inflow environment cooperates.
The upper level low over Texas has elongated into a digging trough which may enter into the forecast later.

[floridasun78]

do it look were low forming more to east were nhc have it in channel between cuba and Cancun? will chance track more naple area or fort myers like earlier models show track of low?

[BobHarlem]

This image from flhurricane points out close to where I think things are slowly happening: (the rightmost arrow)

[Nimbus]

do it look were low forming more to east were nhc have it in channel between cuba and Cancun? will chance track more naple area or fort myers like earlier models show track of low?

Further east there might be less shear from the digging trough in the western gulf.
Currently looks like a broad shallow low which might not organize into a named storm if there is land interaction with the Yucatan.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing I must say is if it were not for the usual June shear I have a gut feeling 93L would have a very decent shot at obtaining hurricane strength(maybe even Cat.2).

[NDG]

I have been away for the past 5 hours or so, I see a weak weak eddy rotating around just south of Cozumel, as if rotating around a larger circulation.
93L is coming together nicely, IMO.

[Nimbus]

I have been away for the past 5 hours or so, I see a weak weak eddy rotating around just south of Cozumel, as if rotating around a larger circulation.
93L is coming together nicely, IMO.

If that latest convection that is blossoming stays persistent I could imagine a ridge building over the area that might fend off the shear.

Hopefully the shear will win..

[northjaxpro]

I made mention a bit earlier as to how the outflow looks rather good on the eastern and northeast side of the developing cyclone. It sure does look like an anticyclone is trying to get somewhat established near 93L at this time.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Saved Satellite Loops. Still has some work to do IMO.

[Hammy]

This will probably not start spinning up at the surface until it is over the Yucatan, as (for some reason) that seems to be when the low forms with these types of systems.

[psyclone]

It looks a mess. But it's our mess. Notice how far to the east the impressive convection extends. the eventual center won't be the true "center" at all, but rather, a demarcation representing the western/northern extent of the active weather. After the ridiculous heat of the last couple of days I'm looking forward to ducking under 93L's cloud canopy for a bit. BTW Gale warnings are now out for the open gulf waters...Should the system achieve TS status those will change to TS warnings...but the changes to the sensible wx will effectively be non existent.