2016 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Euro is on the same boat as the GFS. 240 hours out.

[Kingarabian]

GFS all over the place, 18z has a Cat.4 far out, development starting in T180hrs:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a surface trough of
low pressure has formed a little more than 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions do not appear conducive for significant development
while this system meanders slowly during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to develop around mid-week about
900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance as it moves
westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

10/10 is nothing to see.

0/20 might be something, but the models are very confused with it, as the GFS and its ensembles are going back and forth between it and the system behind it. ECMWF develops a system behind the 0/20 I think and moves it close to Central America

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the 10/10 system may hinder development of that 0/20 system.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like the 10/10 system may hinder development of that 0/20 system.

Doubtful given that none of the global models show a Fujiwara, and the NHC's circle for the 10/10 is small since it doesn't have a long time frame to develop, not because it's not expected to move much

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the 10/10 system may hinder development of that 0/20 system.

Doubtful given that none of the global models show a Fujiwara, and the NHC's circle for the 10/10 is small since it doesn't have a long time frame to develop, not because it's not expected to move much

Well I was looking at the GFS. It was really bombing that 0/20 system. And then a few runs later it started to put more development weight on the 10/10 system and stopped developing the 0/20 system.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292326
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for significant
development while this system meanders slowly during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to develop around mid-week about
900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally
conducive for some gradual development of this disturbance as it
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro liking that 0/20 low a lot more.

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure area located about 950 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant
development while the low meanders slowly during the next few days.
This system could be absorbed around midweek by a developing
disturbance located several hundred miles to the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

2. An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed about 950 miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally
conducive for some gradual development of this disturbance as it
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak low pressure area located about 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are not conducive for development, and tropical cyclone
formation is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms is located about 950
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
slow development of this disturbance during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

Invest 91E is up

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS shows a TS/hurricane hitting the GOT.

[cycloneye]

So far the 2016 season has been lackluster if you compare it with what occurred in 2015 when powerful Hurricanes Andres and Blanca were out there in early June.What has occurred with Invest 91E that has taken a lot of time to develop and as I type this post it continues to do so is the best example that things may not be so favorable as last year.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like dry air or lack of instability. SSTs are favorable and shear is not that bad. Problem is that we've had two invests trying to form west very early in the season.

[Yellow Evan]

MJO has been in the dead circle but regardless the issue appears to be the well-below normal vertical instability and positioning of the ITCZ. With that said, many active years have had slow starts before even in Nina-ish conditions.

[Kingarabian]

I remember the 2010 Nina had 3 major hurricanes in June including a cat 5.

[Yellow Evan]

I remember the 2010 Nina had 3 major hurricanes in June including a cat 5.

2, but in the historical record, 2010 is an extreme anomaly. 2009 didn't see its first named storm till the last week of June and others years like 1988 and 1994 saw no activity until mid-June.

[cycloneye]

Hey,a new area to watch. Some models develop this.

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south-
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly
northeastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
likely later this weekend and early next week over portions of
southern Mexico and Guatemala.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[galaxy401]

I remember the 2010 Nina had 3 major hurricanes in June including a cat 5.

Yeah but nothing else really happened for the rest of that season.