ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 290057
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 26 20160529
004730 3012N 07932W 9248 00812 //// +179 //// 292023 024 028 000 01
004800 3012N 07930W 9246 00817 //// +180 //// 290023 024 028 000 01
004830 3012N 07928W 9244 00817 //// +180 //// 288023 024 027 000 01
004900 3012N 07926W 9244 00819 //// +180 //// 286023 024 028 000 01
004930 3012N 07924W 9246 00815 //// +182 //// 282022 023 024 000 01
005000 3012N 07922W 9246 00816 //// +181 //// 281022 022 025 000 01
005030 3012N 07920W 9245 00817 //// +181 //// 276021 022 024 001 01
005100 3012N 07918W 9246 00815 //// +180 //// 273021 022 023 000 01
005130 3012N 07916W 9248 00815 //// +182 //// 269020 021 023 001 01
005200 3012N 07914W 9245 00817 //// +184 //// 268021 022 019 000 01
005230 3012N 07912W 9244 00817 //// +185 //// 262021 021 020 000 01
005300 3012N 07910W 9249 00812 //// +182 //// 260021 022 020 000 01
005330 3012N 07908W 9244 00819 //// +179 //// 255021 022 017 000 01
005400 3012N 07906W 9247 00815 //// +182 //// 249019 020 021 000 01
005430 3012N 07904W 9248 00816 //// +184 //// 242019 020 017 000 01
005500 3012N 07902W 9245 00819 //// +183 //// 242020 021 018 000 01
005530 3012N 07900W 9246 00817 //// +181 //// 241020 021 018 000 01
005600 3012N 07858W 9247 00817 0159 +185 +181 239022 022 017 000 00
005630 3012N 07856W 9245 00819 0160 +185 +182 242023 024 015 000 00
005700 3012N 07854W 9248 00817 0160 +185 +181 237024 024 012 000 00
$$

URNT15 KNHC 290107
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 27 20160529
005730 3012N 07852W 9247 00819 0161 +185 +182 231023 024 013 000 01
005800 3012N 07850W 9245 00819 0162 +185 +182 230023 023 014 000 01
005830 3012N 07848W 9248 00819 0162 +186 +178 226023 023 013 000 00
005900 3012N 07846W 9244 00823 //// +181 //// 224023 024 013 000 01
005930 3012N 07844W 9249 00819 0164 +182 +171 221021 022 012 000 01
010000 3012N 07842W 9245 00820 0164 +185 +169 220022 022 011 000 03
010030 3012N 07840W 9247 00820 0164 +184 +174 215021 021 013 000 00
010100 3012N 07838W 9247 00820 0165 +182 +179 215021 021 012 000 05
010130 3012N 07836W 9244 00822 0163 +185 +174 210021 022 /// /// 03
010200 3014N 07836W 9246 00822 0166 +185 +175 209019 021 010 000 03
010230 3015N 07837W 9249 00819 0165 +185 +168 206018 019 012 000 00
010300 3016N 07839W 9247 00822 0165 +183 +166 209019 019 012 001 00
010330 3017N 07840W 9246 00820 0163 +184 +175 211018 019 013 000 00
010400 3018N 07841W 9248 00819 0162 +182 +180 209018 019 014 000 01
010430 3019N 07843W 9247 00820 //// +180 //// 214019 020 015 000 01
010500 3020N 07844W 9242 00822 //// +184 //// 218021 021 015 000 01
010530 3022N 07845W 9248 00817 //// +185 //// 216021 021 015 000 05
010600 3023N 07847W 9245 00819 0159 +187 +182 215021 022 013 000 00
010630 3024N 07848W 9247 00817 0158 +190 +179 205022 022 016 001 03
010700 3025N 07849W 9250 00814 0158 +186 +178 214020 022 018 000 05
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 290117
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 28 20160529
010730 3026N 07850W 9243 00819 //// +185 //// 214021 022 018 001 01
010800 3027N 07852W 9245 00815 //// +185 //// 213021 022 018 000 01
010830 3028N 07853W 9246 00812 //// +185 //// 211022 023 021 000 01
010900 3030N 07854W 9248 00812 //// +185 //// 212022 023 021 000 01
010930 3031N 07856W 9244 00816 //// +182 //// 220023 024 023 000 01
011000 3032N 07857W 9242 00814 //// +185 //// 217025 026 020 000 05
011030 3033N 07858W 9249 00806 //// +183 //// 214024 026 022 001 01
011100 3034N 07900W 9245 00810 //// +182 //// 216024 025 023 000 01
011130 3035N 07901W 9243 00809 //// +183 //// 216022 025 022 000 01
011200 3037N 07902W 9246 00805 //// +186 //// 217023 025 021 000 01
011230 3038N 07904W 9250 00800 //// +190 //// 218023 024 020 000 01
011300 3039N 07905W 9246 00804 //// +190 //// 221023 023 019 000 01
011330 3040N 07906W 9244 00802 0137 +193 +189 217022 023 020 001 01
011400 3041N 07908W 9251 00793 0134 +191 +189 217022 022 021 000 01
011430 3042N 07909W 9244 00798 0132 +196 +188 216023 024 020 000 00
011500 3043N 07910W 9247 00794 0129 +199 +188 216025 025 022 000 00
011530 3044N 07911W 9249 00789 0125 +203 +187 219026 027 023 000 00
011600 3046N 07913W 9245 00789 0118 +214 +178 217026 027 022 000 00
011630 3047N 07914W 9248 00784 0115 +215 +188 218025 026 022 000 00
011700 3048N 07915W 9245 00787 0114 +211 +194 217024 026 021 000 00
$$

RNT15 KNHC 290127
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 29 20160529
011730 3049N 07917W 9247 00780 0109 +214 +196 212020 023 020 000 00
011800 3050N 07918W 9246 00778 0108 +209 +198 207015 018 018 000 03
011830 3051N 07920W 9247 00778 0110 +201 +198 214010 012 013 000 01
011900 3052N 07921W 9245 00778 0109 +199 +196 225008 009 014 000 03
011930 3053N 07923W 9242 00781 0106 +202 +194 227008 009 013 000 00
012000 3054N 07924W 9244 00777 //// +199 //// 222006 008 014 000 01
012030 3055N 07925W 9246 00775 //// +200 //// 194003 005 013 000 01
012100 3056N 07927W 9246 00775 //// +198 //// 162003 004 014 000 01
012130 3056N 07929W 9244 00771 //// +200 //// 072003 004 014 000 01
012200 3057N 07930W 9254 00760 //// +199 //// 029009 012 017 000 01
012230 3058N 07932W 9246 00772 //// +199 //// 022016 018 023 001 01
012300 3059N 07933W 9243 00777 //// +192 //// 028019 020 037 000 01
012330 3100N 07934W 9242 00780 //// +193 //// 035024 029 040 002 01
012400 3101N 07935W 9103 00917 0120 +192 //// 020034 036 041 008 01
012430 3102N 07937W 9080 00939 0128 +183 //// 015034 035 044 005 01
012500 3104N 07938W 9078 00947 0133 +180 //// 024033 034 046 006 05
012530 3105N 07939W 9077 00949 //// +179 //// 028032 036 043 003 01
012600 3106N 07940W 9079 00950 0135 +177 //// 012031 034 041 003 01
012630 3107N 07941W 9060 00970 0141 +179 //// 012031 034 044 009 05
012700 3108N 07942W 9088 00944 0148 +168 //// 358030 033 039 006 01
$$
;

Not sure if those SFMR readings are reliable.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 290137
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 30 20160529
012730 3109N 07943W 9074 00965 //// +152 //// 002029 030 037 003 01
012800 3110N 07945W 9076 00957 //// +165 //// 000026 028 040 001 01
012830 3111N 07946W 9082 00955 0138 +178 +177 350025 026 040 003 01
012900 3112N 07947W 9078 00959 0142 +175 +173 348026 027 041 005 00
012930 3113N 07948W 9072 00965 0147 +166 //// 348024 025 041 005 01
013000 3114N 07949W 9084 00955 0148 +166 +163 341024 024 039 007 00
013030 3115N 07950W 9076 00964 0147 +170 +162 346021 024 037 004 00
013100 3116N 07951W 9076 00964 0145 +175 +159 338018 021 034 005 00
013130 3117N 07952W 9085 00956 0145 +178 +158 343018 019 035 005 00
013200 3118N 07953W 9078 00966 0144 +186 +163 003021 022 031 001 00
013230 3119N 07955W 9083 00961 0141 +198 +140 345020 021 031 001 00
013300 3120N 07956W 9074 00970 0140 +202 +129 350018 019 028 000 00
013330 3121N 07957W 9073 00968 0139 +206 +125 354018 020 027 000 00
013400 3122N 07958W 9082 00962 0139 +210 +119 357020 021 026 000 00
013430 3123N 07959W 9070 00975 0141 +205 +124 003023 023 023 001 00
013500 3123N 08001W 9077 00966 0142 +205 +128 006024 025 029 001 03
013530 3124N 08003W 9078 00973 0147 +205 +137 355027 028 030 000 00
013600 3124N 08005W 9074 00979 0154 +199 +147 350029 030 030 000 00
013630 3125N 08006W 9078 00977 0159 +186 +151 346028 030 024 000 00
013700 3125N 08008W 9078 00978 0164 +183 +146 346023 027 023 001 00
$$
;

They do seem legit - previous pass would support 45 kt.

[CrazyC83]

Latest data seems to support an intensity of 45 kt.

[CrazyC83]

RNT15 KNHC 290147
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 31 20160529
013730 3126N 08009W 9076 00983 0167 +180 +143 352021 025 022 000 00
013800 3126N 08011W 9082 00978 0167 +181 +136 346021 022 022 000 00
013830 3127N 08012W 9076 00987 0168 +185 +130 346019 021 022 000 00
013900 3128N 08014W 9082 00981 0169 +183 +127 351019 019 023 000 00
013930 3129N 08015W 9078 00984 0170 +180 +131 357021 022 026 000 00
014000 3130N 08015W 9079 00986 0171 +180 +135 357022 023 025 000 03
014030 3131N 08017W 9074 00989 0174 +175 +133 000027 029 018 000 00
014100 3131N 08017W 9074 00989 0176 +173 +144 005030 031 019 000 00
014130 3131N 08021W 9079 00986 0176 +171 +154 009031 031 019 000 00
014200 3131N 08022W 9074 00992 0179 +168 +153 012030 031 018 000 00
014230 3131N 08024W 9078 00989 0180 +170 +147 015026 029 017 000 00
014300 3131N 08026W 9077 00990 0181 +170 +147 019025 025 018 000 03
014330 3132N 08028W 9080 00989 0182 +169 +147 018025 025 017 000 00
014400 3132N 08030W 9076 00994 0185 +165 +153 015023 025 018 000 00
014430 3132N 08032W 9077 00994 0186 +162 +156 014023 024 016 000 00
014500 3132N 08034W 9077 00995 //// +159 //// 018023 024 016 000 01
014530 3132N 08035W 9076 00998 //// +157 //// 016025 025 016 000 01
014600 3132N 08037W 9078 00995 //// +155 //// 015026 027 017 000 01
014630 3132N 08039W 9079 00995 //// +154 //// 017031 034 017 000 01
014700 3132N 08041W 9075 00999 //// +151 //// 018031 032 022 002 01
$$
;

[AJC3]

Latest data seems to support an intensity of 45 kt.

I suspect they won't go that high, given 2 of the 3 SFMR readings AOA 44kt were flagged. My guess is that they'll go with 40KT.

edit: Heck, given the degraded presentation on radar and satellite over the past 2-3 hours, they may just keep it at 35KT

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 290157
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 32 20160529
014730 3132N 08043W 9084 00992 //// +150 //// 014028 030 023 001 05
014800 3132N 08045W 8959 01102 //// +146 //// 014026 028 026 002 01
014830 3133N 08047W 8684 01363 //// +135 //// 011023 026 025 001 05
014900 3132N 08049W 8265 01781 0170 +121 +107 007022 027 /// /// 05
014930 3132N 08051W 7881 02177 0153 +123 +081 338015 021 /// /// 03
015000 3132N 08052W 7514 02578 0154 +096 +063 314014 016 /// /// 03
015030 3132N 08054W 7143 03000 0162 +064 +051 327016 018 /// /// 03
015100 3132N 08056W 6855 03337 0153 +054 +027 336014 018 /// /// 03
015130 3131N 08058W 6635 03606 0148 +040 +018 018014 015 011 000 03
015200 3131N 08100W 6373 03930 0154 +015 +009 013011 016 /// /// 03
015230 3131N 08103W 6105 04276 //// -003 //// 013006 008 /// /// 05
015300 3131N 08105W 5895 04560 //// -021 //// 014006 007 013 000 05
015330 3131N 08107W 5696 04829 0132 -030 -046 359009 010 011 000 03
015400 3130N 08109W 5429 05206 0246 -029 -122 302014 017 /// /// 03
015430 3130N 08111W 5243 05488 0268 -047 -166 310018 018 126 007 03
015500 3130N 08111W 5243 05488 0277 -063 -173 307017 018 /// /// 03
015530 3130N 08115W 4966 05912 0289 -075 -203 288015 016 /// /// 03
015600 3129N 08117W 4817 06146 0300 -095 -216 286016 017 /// /// 03
015630 3129N 08119W 4696 06346 0313 -109 -250 289013 015 /// /// 03
015700 3129N 08122W 4579 06538 0322 -122 -261 273010 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

Mission over.

[AJC3]

URNT12 KNHC 290142
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022016
A. 29/01:21:20Z
B. 30 deg 56 min N
079 deg 28 min W
C. 925 mb 769 m
D. 23 kt
E. 128 deg 38 nm
F. 217 deg 27 kt
G. 124 deg 17 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 20 C / 764 m
J. 20 C / 768 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0302A BONNIE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 217 / 21 NM 00:27:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 36 KT 306 / 7 NM 01:24:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 125 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR
CURVED BAND ON RADAR WEST OF FIX POSN

[cycloneye]

Is 40kts.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 79.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...BONNIE A BIT STRONGER BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 79.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 79.5 West. Bonnie is currently
stationary. A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin
overnight, followed by a turn toward the north as the center of
Bonnie moves near the coast in the warning area on Sunday. A slow
northeastward motion near the central and northern coast of South
Carolina is expected Sunday night and Monday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is expected overnight. Some weakening is expected to
begin by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly to the northwest of the center.

The latest estimated minimum central pressure based on data from
the aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches from central
and eastern South Carolina to the Georgia border. Rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected across southeastern
North Carolina.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area overnight or early Sunday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground
level is possible within the tropical storm warning area during the
next high tide on Sunday morning.

SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States
coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible late tonight and
early Sunday over the immediate South Carolina coastal region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The center of Bonnie has become exposed about 50 n mi to the
southeast of a bursting area of deep convection due to strong
southerly vertical wind shear. Despite this ragged appearance, data
from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found
some believable SFMR winds northwest of the center that support
increasing the initial intensity to 40 kt. Little change in
intensity is expected before the center moves near or onto
the South Carolina coast on Sunday, with weakening to a tropical
depression expected in about 36 hours. Shear, dry air, and cool SSTs
should result in Bonnie becoming a remnant low by 72 hours, although
I wouldn't be surprised if this occurred a little sooner.

Bonnie has moved little since the last advisory, with the 3 most
recent aircraft fixes all within about 5 miles of each other. The
cyclone should begin to move north-northwestward and then northward
during the next 12-24 hours between a mid/upper-level trough
advancing into the eastern United States and a building ridge near
and west of Bermuda. After that time, a weakening Bonnie should move
slowly northeastward through the end of the period. The new NHC
forecast is near the previous one through 12 hours. After that time
the official NHC track has been adjusted to the right of the
previous one but lies left of and a bit slower than the GFS/ECMWF
consensus out of respect for continuity. Note that the the shift in
the guidance envelope at 24 hours and beyond is largely due to the
fact that Bonnie hasn't moved much this evening.

The primary impact from Bonnie will be locally heavy rainfall, which
is already occurring over portions of coastal South Carolina.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 31.0N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 31.8N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 32.7N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 33.5N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0000Z 34.3N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 35.0N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z 35.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[AJC3]

Is 40kts.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT

Never second guess yourself. LOL

[tarheelprogrammer]

Storm is moving north and slightly a little eastward the last few frames it looks like.

[Hammy]

Are we getting another flight overnight? It still seems to be stalled over the Gulf Stream and new convection is starting to fire.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like convection is trying to build closer to the coc.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29.5&lon=-76&palette=ir2.pal&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=black

[tatertawt24]

The lightning near the center is strange. What would cause that? It's obviously not RI'ing.

[ozonepete]

Is 40kts.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT

Never second guess yourself. LOL

Heh heh you kill me. You get it right and then make a joke out of it.

[NotoSans]

Seems to be weakening due to shear with convection well removed from the LLCC.

[AJC3]

The 'stall' was sure short-lived. Bonnie completely dropped her threads and made a right turn almost due northward as a naked swirl. I imagine we'll see sheared convection start to fire back up near/north of the center in a little bit, but I suspect the TC has peaked in intensity.

[northjaxpro]

The 'stall' was sure short-lived. Bonnie completely dropped her threads and made a right turn almost due northward as a naked swirl. I imagine we'll see sheared convection start to fire back up near/north of the center in a little bit, but I suspect the TC has peaked in intensity.

Yes, Bonnie has likely peaked in intensity. The cooler ssts near the coast and thd moderate shear sill continue to weaken the cyclone.