ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

In the last couple of frames it appears convection expanded south and west...could that make it here or not?

Could someone answer this? Much appreciated.

What you would need is continued WNW propagation (i.e. reformation) of the center downshear into the convection, which has already happened once, so it's something to watch out for. However, I don't see significant heavy rainfall getting any farther SW or west than the greater KSAV area.

[SeGaBob]

Thanks for the replies.

[AJC3]

URNT15 KNHC 282207
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 09 20160528
215730 3149N 08318W 3751 08008 0374 -258 //// 135003 004 /// /// 05
215800 3150N 08315W 3753 08005 0374 -254 -267 078001 002 /// /// 05
215830 3150N 08312W 3754 08003 0374 -252 -267 165002 003 /// /// 03
215900 3151N 08309W 3753 08006 0375 -254 -271 279003 004 /// /// 03
215930 3151N 08306W 3754 08006 0376 -257 //// 278005 005 /// /// 05
220000 3152N 08303W 3751 08014 0376 -257 //// 278007 008 /// /// 05
220030 3152N 08300W 3749 08014 0376 -256 //// 261007 008 /// /// 05
220100 3153N 08257W 3754 08003 0374 -255 //// 265005 006 /// /// 05
220130 3153N 08253W 3755 08005 0376 -248 -289 229005 009 /// /// 03
220200 3154N 08250W 3749 08016 0376 -234 -376 179012 014 /// /// 03
220230 3154N 08247W 3757 07999 0376 -233 -415 179014 016 /// /// 03
220300 3155N 08244W 3753 08011 0378 -230 -406 170018 019 /// /// 03
220330 3155N 08241W 3753 08008 0377 -231 -411 171017 019 /// /// 03
220400 3156N 08238W 3751 08012 0377 -238 -418 172012 017 /// /// 03
220430 3156N 08235W 3755 08005 0378 -230 -417 172019 019 /// /// 03
220500 3157N 08232W 3754 08007 0378 -230 -429 169020 021 /// /// 03
220530 3157N 08229W 3754 08010 0379 -230 -436 167020 021 /// /// 03
220600 3158N 08226W 3755 08007 0380 -227 -438 166022 023 /// /// 03
220630 3158N 08223W 3751 08014 0380 -225 -436 170024 025 /// /// 03
220700 3159N 08219W 3754 08010 0380 -225 -435 170024 024 /// /// 03
$$

[AJC3]

[AJC3]

URNT15 KNHC 282217
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 10 20160528
220730 3159N 08216W 3753 08013 0382 -225 -433 170026 027 /// /// 03
220800 3200N 08213W 3751 08016 0382 -225 -428 172027 027 /// /// 03
220830 3200N 08210W 3753 08013 0382 -225 -404 173030 031 /// /// 03
220900 3201N 08207W 3754 08012 0382 -221 -378 172033 034 /// /// 03
220930 3201N 08204W 3755 08010 0382 -217 -407 161034 034 /// /// 03
221000 3201N 08201W 3753 08014 0383 -217 -442 157032 033 /// /// 03
221030 3202N 08158W 3754 08013 0383 -219 -378 154031 032 /// /// 03
221100 3202N 08155W 3756 08011 0383 -225 -364 154028 031 /// /// 03
221130 3203N 08152W 3752 08016 0384 -230 -357 162029 030 /// /// 03
221200 3203N 08149W 3755 08013 0386 -235 -283 167031 032 /// /// 03
221230 3204N 08146W 3868 07815 0388 -229 -269 167027 030 /// /// 03
221300 3204N 08143W 3924 07690 0371 -221 -244 176026 028 /// /// 03
221330 3205N 08139W 3946 07655 0374 -218 -227 185031 031 /// /// 03
221400 3205N 08136W 4116 07351 0366 -199 -220 193028 032 /// /// 03
221430 3206N 08133W 4222 07149 0349 -183 -206 195019 025 /// /// 03
221500 3206N 08130W 4296 07022 0345 -170 -198 196023 026 /// /// 03
221530 3206N 08127W 4393 06853 0338 -154 -173 194022 023 /// /// 03
221600 3207N 08125W 4579 06554 0337 -143 -150 201013 023 /// /// 03
221630 3207N 08122W 4838 06133 0320 -109 -156 210010 014 /// /// 03
221700 3208N 08119W 5149 05660 0304 -070 -133 191013 014 /// /// 03
$$

Plane is crossing over the KSAV area now.

[psyclone]

Remember to wait until the music stops, psy. With this forecast to sit over the area for days somebody could get more than a "dousing". Floods are a much bigger killer than wind in TCs.

Just in case there's any ambiguity:

douse 1
also dowse (dous)
tr.v. doused, dous·ing, dous·es also dowsed or dows·ing or dows·es
1. To wet thoroughly; drench.

2. To put out (a light or fire); extinguish: doused the campfire with a bucket of water.

n.
A thorough drenching.

?? So the quoted definition of a dousing or dowsing doesn't imply flooding per se and it's not an NWS term. I'm worried that people in the low country aren't thinking of severe flooding. They need to be on their guard just in case. These slowly dying systems have caused some of the worst flooding in U.S. history. That's all.

there are no flood watches from the NWS at this time. 2-4" isn't a big deal for this part of the country...happens in the Summer on a regular basis. Here's the relevant portion of the Hurricane local statement from the NWS Charleston:

THE RAIN COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
MINOR FLOODING...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST CLOSE TO THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...INTENSITY AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.

[AJC3]

Pretty much stalling out right now. just a slow drift over the last couple hours. wont matter much for strengthening unless the shear drops some.

If I was fixing the center by satellite alone, then I would say the center hasn't moved since the minor WNW reformation about 4 hours ago, although part of that could just be from some residual attempt at consolidation. However, if it stays there for another couple of hours, which would make about 6, then we might have ourselves a bona fide stall.

[AJC3]

URNT15 KNHC 282227
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 11 20160528
221730 3208N 08116W 5470 05183 0279 -039 -069 190010 013 /// /// 03
221800 3209N 08113W 5791 04732 0164 -015 -035 198009 011 /// /// 03
221830 3209N 08110W 6125 04283 0182 +002 -012 165011 013 /// /// 03
221900 3209N 08107W 6441 03877 0205 +013 +010 126007 012 /// /// 03
221930 3209N 08104W 6767 03478 0213 +032 +026 118007 009 /// /// 03
222000 3210N 08101W 7122 03047 0201 +058 +046 114011 012 /// /// 03
222030 3210N 08058W 7466 02659 0195 +085 +059 120010 013 /// /// 03
222100 3210N 08056W 7806 02285 0190 +112 +071 123006 009 /// /// 03
222130 3210N 08053W 8153 01919 0192 +130 +088 024004 004 /// /// 03
222200 3210N 08051W 8433 01624 0184 +147 +101 355007 010 /// /// 03
222230 3211N 08049W 8484 01565 0186 +127 +111 355022 024 /// /// 03
222300 3211N 08047W 8497 01554 0194 +118 +118 010025 026 /// /// 05
222330 3211N 08045W 8670 01384 0190 +137 +122 015026 027 /// /// 03
222400 3211N 08043W 8871 01190 0189 +150 +136 017024 025 /// /// 03
222430 3211N 08041W 9072 00998 0185 +165 +147 019026 026 035 008 00
222500 3211N 08039W 9263 00813 0177 +175 +163 024028 029 037 007 00
222530 3211N 08038W 9240 00830 0167 +184 +160 024027 029 040 007 00
222600 3212N 08036W 9249 00822 0169 +186 +152 021026 026 039 009 00
222630 3212N 08034W 9247 00825 0171 +184 +147 020026 026 044 009 00
222700 3212N 08033W 9246 00826 0174 +180 +143 017026 027 038 009 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty much stalling out right now. just a slow drift over the last couple hours. wont matter much for strengthening unless the shear drops some.

If I was fixing the center by satellite alone, then I would say the center hasn't moved since the minor WNW reformation about 4 hours ago, although part of that could just be from some residual attempt at consolidation. However, if it stays there for another couple of hours, which would make about 6, then we might have ourselves a bona fide stall.

Agreed. about all I have seen is a couple small cyclonic loops before during and after the consolidation.

[AJC3]

URNT15 KNHC 282237
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 12 20160528
222730 3212N 08031W 9247 00826 0175 +175 +150 018022 026 038 013 00
222800 3212N 08029W 9247 00827 0178 +168 +152 015023 023 035 014 00
222830 3212N 08027W 9245 00828 0180 +164 +159 015022 023 034 009 00
222900 3212N 08026W 9242 00827 0177 +174 +163 016025 026 031 011 00
222930 3211N 08024W 9250 00823 0179 +171 +168 020023 025 034 007 00
223000 3210N 08023W 9250 00826 0184 +165 +165 020021 023 034 009 00
223030 3209N 08021W 9245 00830 0185 +163 +163 013021 022 033 012 00
223100 3207N 08020W 9245 00828 0186 +166 +166 011022 023 029 019 00
223130 3206N 08019W 9246 00827 0186 +168 +168 012025 028 034 019 00
223200 3205N 08017W 9246 00828 0186 +168 +168 013027 028 037 016 00
223230 3204N 08016W 9247 00826 0185 +169 +169 008027 028 034 021 00
223300 3203N 08014W 9246 00827 0185 +171 +171 002026 029 035 019 00
223330 3201N 08013W 9247 00825 0183 +173 +173 005022 023 034 027 00
223400 3200N 08012W 9244 00827 0182 +173 +173 358025 025 035 018 00
223430 3159N 08010W 9249 00821 0182 +174 +174 356024 025 036 018 00
223500 3158N 08009W 9246 00826 0182 +173 +173 356024 024 035 018 00
223530 3157N 08007W 9246 00825 0181 +176 +176 356025 025 036 017 00
223600 3155N 08006W 9246 00825 0181 +176 +176 358026 027 036 014 00
223630 3154N 08004W 9248 00820 0179 +177 +177 000029 029 039 024 00
223700 3153N 08003W 9245 00822 0178 +178 +178 000031 031 044 024 00
$$

URNT15 KNHC 282247
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 13 20160528
223730 3152N 08001W 9247 00822 0180 +179 +179 357029 031 037 019 00
223800 3150N 08000W 9246 00821 0176 +179 +179 355032 033 039 014 00
223830 3149N 07958W 9248 00822 0176 +181 +181 005030 032 038 008 00
223900 3148N 07957W 9242 00825 0171 +174 //// 016027 030 036 003 01
223930 3147N 07956W 9252 00814 //// +178 //// 024023 025 035 001 05
224000 3146N 07954W 9247 00820 //// +175 //// 030020 021 033 001 01
224030 3144N 07953W 9245 00819 //// +177 //// 032019 021 035 001 01
224100 3143N 07952W 9249 00815 //// +177 //// 041018 020 036 001 01
224130 3142N 07950W 9246 00816 //// +178 //// 032020 022 035 002 05
224200 3141N 07949W 9247 00816 //// +179 //// 034020 021 035 001 01
224230 3140N 07947W 9240 00816 //// +177 //// 035021 022 036 000 05
224300 3139N 07946W 9246 00810 //// +179 //// 040023 025 035 000 01
224330 3139N 07944W 9242 00813 //// +172 //// 039023 025 036 001 05
224400 3138N 07943W 9245 00805 0149 +188 //// 055030 032 034 006 01
224430 3137N 07941W 9231 00817 //// +178 //// 053031 038 033 001 01
224500 3136N 07940W 9275 00776 //// +175 //// 056028 030 033 003 01
224530 3135N 07939W 9246 00808 //// +178 //// 055025 027 031 001 01
224600 3133N 07938W 9244 00805 //// +178 //// 054026 027 029 002 05
224630 3132N 07937W 9251 00797 //// +183 //// 052025 028 030 002 01
224700 3130N 07937W 9238 00803 0141 +187 //// 049027 028 034 007 01
$$

[AJC3]

URNT15 KNHC 282257
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 14 20160528
224730 3129N 07936W 9264 00781 0142 +195 //// 069030 034 037 008 01
224800 3128N 07935W 9240 00803 //// +184 //// 074031 033 037 001 01
224830 3127N 07933W 9251 00792 //// +183 //// 077034 036 037 001 05
224900 3125N 07933W 9247 00793 //// +186 //// 075034 036 037 003 01
224930 3124N 07932W 9248 00791 //// +182 //// 077034 035 036 003 01
225000 3122N 07932W 9251 00787 //// +185 //// 078030 035 036 004 05
225030 3121N 07931W 9242 00794 //// +188 //// 075033 034 035 001 01
225100 3119N 07931W 9248 00787 //// +189 //// 082031 033 034 000 01
225130 3118N 07931W 9249 00785 0129 +187 //// 083030 031 033 001 05
225200 3116N 07930W 9240 00791 0120 +188 +187 086031 032 031 002 01
225230 3115N 07930W 9249 00780 0119 +191 +188 084030 031 028 000 05
225300 3113N 07930W 9246 00782 //// +190 //// 081029 030 028 000 01
225330 3111N 07930W 9248 00777 //// +191 //// 078029 031 030 000 01
225400 3110N 07930W 9248 00775 //// +190 //// 075031 031 030 000 01
225430 3108N 07930W 9249 00774 0108 +191 +185 075032 033 030 000 05
225500 3107N 07929W 9244 00776 0107 +189 +185 077033 034 030 000 03
225530 3105N 07929W 9247 00769 //// +186 //// 078032 034 030 000 01
225600 3103N 07929W 9246 00767 //// +187 //// 079030 032 031 001 05
225630 3102N 07929W 9244 00765 //// +185 //// 078030 032 031 001 05
225700 3100N 07929W 9248 00758 //// +183 //// 071025 030 031 000 01
$$

[SouthDadeFish]

Almost looks like recon intentionally avoided the heavy convection on the first inbound leg. I don't know if I blame them flying at 2,500 ft!

[Hammy]

Almost looks like recon intentionally avoided the heavy convection on the first inbound leg. I don't know if I blame them flying at 2,500 ft!

Hopefully they'll go through it before the flight is over as that's likely where the strongest winds are.

[AJC3]

URNT15 KNHC 282307
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 15 20160528
225730 3059N 07929W 9250 00754 //// +189 //// 079020 022 027 000 01
225800 3057N 07928W 9255 00749 //// +191 //// 083018 019 021 000 01
225830 3056N 07927W 9247 00752 //// +194 //// 082014 017 018 000 01
225900 3054N 07927W 9244 00758 //// +193 //// 091012 014 017 000 01
225930 3053N 07927W 9245 00753 //// +193 //// 095007 011 016 000 01
230000 3051N 07926W 9248 00748 //// +198 //// 108004 005 013 001 05
230030 3050N 07926W 9247 00747 0072 +211 +199 194007 009 013 000 00
230100 3048N 07926W 9244 00749 0071 +210 +200 213008 012 012 000 03
230130 3047N 07926W 9248 00746 0071 +214 +200 227016 019 011 000 00
230200 3046N 07925W 9250 00746 0074 +208 +202 238021 023 013 000 00
230230 3045N 07923W 9242 00758 0076 +215 +196 237026 027 018 000 00
230300 3043N 07922W 9249 00753 0079 +214 +195 239026 028 020 000 00
230330 3042N 07920W 9244 00761 0085 +211 +187 236028 029 023 000 00
230400 3041N 07919W 9244 00765 0090 +207 +187 233030 031 025 000 00
230430 3040N 07918W 9250 00763 0096 +205 +183 231032 033 025 000 00
230500 3039N 07916W 9243 00774 0101 +193 +182 232033 034 024 000 01
230530 3038N 07915W 9248 00771 0106 +194 +185 231033 034 025 000 03
230600 3037N 07914W 9250 00771 //// +186 //// 231032 034 025 000 01
230630 3036N 07912W 9242 00783 //// +181 //// 233030 032 025 000 05
230700 3035N 07911W 9244 00783 //// +183 //// 228026 029 025 000 01
$$

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Visible Satellite Loop.

[AJC3]

URNT15 KNHC 282317
AF307 0302A BONNIE HDOB 16 20160528
230730 3034N 07910W 9245 00784 //// +185 //// 232025 026 023 000 01
230800 3032N 07908W 9247 00784 //// +182 //// 233026 027 021 001 01
230830 3031N 07907W 9245 00788 //// +183 //// 235026 027 019 000 01
230900 3030N 07905W 9248 00787 //// +185 //// 233024 025 018 000 01
230930 3029N 07904W 9248 00789 //// +186 //// 232024 025 021 000 01
231000 3028N 07903W 9245 00794 //// +185 //// 239023 024 018 000 01
231030 3027N 07901W 9249 00791 //// +182 //// 244024 024 017 000 01
231100 3026N 07900W 9248 00794 //// +182 //// 244025 026 014 000 01
231130 3025N 07859W 9248 00795 //// +185 //// 241024 026 017 000 01
231200 3024N 07857W 9249 00795 0136 +187 +185 238024 025 017 000 05
231230 3022N 07856W 9245 00800 0139 +187 +181 240025 026 014 000 05
231300 3021N 07854W 9248 00800 0140 +190 +177 241026 026 014 000 00
231330 3020N 07853W 9246 00803 0142 +190 +173 236024 025 010 000 00
231400 3019N 07852W 9246 00804 0143 +187 +176 240024 025 011 000 01
231430 3018N 07850W 9248 00803 //// +185 //// 240025 025 013 000 01
231500 3017N 07849W 9245 00805 //// +183 //// 240023 025 012 000 01
231530 3016N 07848W 9248 00804 //// +181 //// 241022 022 013 000 01
231600 3015N 07846W 9247 00806 //// +180 //// 245020 022 008 000 01
231630 3013N 07845W 9247 00806 //// +182 //// 246020 021 009 001 05
231700 3012N 07843W 9248 00808 0151 +184 +182 249019 021 008 000 03
$$

[AJC3]

URNT12 KNHC 282312
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022016
A. 28/23:00:20Z
B. 30 deg 50 min N
079 deg 26 min W
C. 925 mb 748 m
D. 36 kt
E. 332 deg 63 nm
F. 052 deg 38 kt
G. 343 deg 49 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 18 C / 765 m
J. 20 C / 767 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0302A BONNIE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 38 KT 343 / 49 NM 22:44:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[TheStormExpert]

Wind Shear is still an issue, but mid-level wind shear shouldn't be.

Current Wind Shear


Current Wind Shear Tendency


Current Mid-Level Wind Shear

[ozonepete]

Pretty much stalling out right now. just a slow drift over the last couple hours. wont matter much for strengthening unless the shear drops some.

If I was fixing the center by satellite alone, then I would say the center hasn't moved since the minor WNW reformation about 4 hours ago, although part of that could just be from some residual attempt at consolidation. However, if it stays there for another couple of hours, which would make about 6, then we might have ourselves a bona fide stall.

Agreed. about all I have seen is a couple small cyclonic loops before during and after the consolidation.

Agree with what both of you said. In another couple of hours it would be pretty safe to call it stalled. I'm pretty sure we will.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...BONNIE HESITATES WHILE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 30.9 North, longitude 79.4 West. Bonnie has moved little
during the past few hours, but a northwest motion near 9 mph (15
km/h) is expected to resume this evening. A decrease in forward
speed and a turn toward the north-northwest are expected on Sunday
as the system nears the coast within the warning area. A slow
northward to northeastward motion of the center across coastal
South Carolina is expected Sunday night and Monday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A little strengthening is
possible tonight, with gradual weakening forecast on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly to the northwest of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated by the aircraft is
1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches with maximum totals of 5 inches from eastern South
Carolina through southeastern North Carolina.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground
level is possible within the tropical storm warning area during the
next high tide on Sunday morning.

SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States
coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible late tonight
and early Sunday over the immediate coastal region from central
South Carolina through southern North Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan