2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF. So the fun beginnings. Another year of model watching.

[Kingarabian]

Way too early for development that west IMO.

[stormwise]

CMC TD/TS

[Kingarabian]

Long range 00z GFS showing a Cat 2 far out.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS in agreement for a storm to form next week. GFS is very imaginative, showing twin storms.

[Darvince]

Not quite as imaginitive this time, with only a single storm, as should be expected.

[gatorcane]

EPAC looks to pick up where it left off last year, pattern still looks very El Niño-like to me

[Kingarabian]

EPAC looks to pick up where it left off last year, pattern still looks very El Niño-like to me

Agreed. Conditions this far west in the basin are usually favorable later in the season.

[TheStormExpert]

EPAC looks to pick up where it left off last year, pattern still looks very El Niño-like to me

I expect that the East Pacific will see a more active and El Niño like first half of the season followed by a less active second half of the season.

[Kingarabian]

EPAC looks to pick up where it left off last year, pattern still looks very El Niño-like to me

I expect that the East Pacific will see a more active and El Niño like first half of the season followed by a less active second half of the season.

Unless this La-Nina is a moderate one, I'm expecting another average to above average season.

[Andrew92]

Watch the EPAC MDR anomalies! Just because there is a good La Nina at the Equator, if between 10 and 20 degrees is warm in the EPAC, the season can still be busy. It happened that way classically in 1959 and 1992.

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC looks to pick up where it left off last year, pattern still looks very El Niño-like to me

So far it appears so but it's super early still.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF showing it is a good sign. GFS is likely way too bullish and given the volatile nature of the model, I expect it to show an open wave by this time tomorrow, especially with nonexistent ensemble support and the fact the parallel GFS does not show anything. I'd more closely follow the ECMWF.

[Kingarabian]

Gfs basically drops it.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan nailed this.

I expect it to show an open wave by this time tomorrow

[cycloneye]

Nada from ECMWF.

[stormwise]

Yellow Evan nailed this.

I expect it to show an open wave by this time tomorrow

It was never a closed off circulation within the MT at that point of time, UKMET is consistent with the cmc on genesis.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS still hinting @ possibly weak TS before May 15th.

[Kingarabian]

Shouldn't the NHC mark it yellow already?

[NDG]

TWOs not out yet because the season doesn't start May 15th, so the only way they may do is mention it as a Spcial Advisory.

They mentioned the area in their NE Pacific Tropical discussion.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 08 2016

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THE
FRESH WINDS HAVE HELPED GENERATE A TRADEWIND SWELL WHICH IS
COMBINING WITH NW SWELL TO HELP FOR COMBINED SEAS REACHING 9 FT
FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 125W AS DEPICTED FROM THE MOST RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT OVER THIS AREA BY TUESDAY.

A KELVIN WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA HAS HELPED INDUCE
SURFACE WESTERLIES AS FAR WEST AS 123W AS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. THE KELVIN WAVE HAS HELPED TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N113W WITHIN THIS MONSOONAL TROUGH.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW...SEAS
OVER THE SE QUADRANT ARE REACHING NEAR 9 FT WHERE WINDS ARE
REACHING NEAR 20 KT. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDEP.shtml?