Texas Spring 2016

[Texas Snowman]

There are very few and far in between.

OK. Metal is very common here. I did mine a few years ago. I was hoping to hear real-life experiences that they were only dented and not penetrated like shingle roofs.

My parents in Alabama have a metal roof but I honestly cannot even remember if I've seen one out here...

After a big hail storm up here in Grayson County a number of years ago, my father-in-law put a metal roof on his house. And now my sister-in-law has one too.

[Texas Snowman]

OK. Metal is very common here. I did mine a few years ago. I was hoping to hear real-life experiences that they were only dented and not penetrated like shingle roofs.

I would assume a metal roof would be dented extensively though. If you've been through a hailstorm and look at a car the dents are many. For every dent seen visibility from a short distance there is probably 5 more around it that you have too look close. Just take a look at a car that's been hit. The chunk expense in a vehicle is not so much the big holes but the many little ones that it would be cheaper just to replace the entire sheet. Even the more common egg to golfball hail would cost $ on a metal roof.

Actually, they are hardier than you might think...

http://www.metalroofing.com/v2/forums/i ... egoryID=49

[WeatherGuesser]

OK. Metal is very common here. I did mine a few years ago. I was hoping to hear real-life experiences that they were only dented and not penetrated like shingle roofs.

I would assume a metal roof would be dented extensively though. If you've been through a hailstorm and look at a car the dents are many. For every dent seen visibility from a short distance there is probably 5 more around it that you have too look close. Just take a look at a car that's been hit. The chunk expense in a vehicle is not so much the big holes but the many little ones that it would be cheaper just to replace the entire sheet. Even the more common egg to golfball hail would cost $ on a metal roof.

What I'm getting at is the additional structural damage and water damage from leaking; fallen interior ceilings, etc. It's far easier to replace a roof panel or twenty that to have to strip everything off and replace roof decking and drywall.

[Brent]

Anyone know the threat level for wylie in collin country on tuesday it appears the nam hi res at 60hrs so 12am wednesday shows storms that have formed out infront of the squall line? is this accurate? can someone give an analysis?

I don't think it's any worse than anywhere else in the metro... I don't doubt there might be a few cells out ahead of the line, but they will likely be very isolated and the small scale features that feed those won't be known til the event is underway... heck... I never would have guessed one storm that started up near Wichita Falls would cause the softball sized hail here on April 11th until it was happening but it did because of a perfectly placed boundary which is usually what isolated cells follow... so we'll just have to wait and see.

Basically... watch out for outflow boundaries... also how the 2012 Dallas tornadoes happened

[Ntxw]

Yeah those outflow boundaries always throws a wrench in things. This week's set up is a bit different though. Storms will be more rooted at the surface so they are dangerous supercells with rotation. 3000-4000 j/kg will be monster hail and some tornadoes. Will be luck where they fire and head in a general northeast direction. The last couple of rounds the dryline did little, might not be the case this time.

[EF-5bigj]

The setup is insanely unstable this time when storms go they will GO!

[Ntxw]

Yeah if they go. Still though we have to keep some expectations calmed. This isn't the sure fire high risk tornado/severe days where factors come together perfectly. The cap can still hold and there are other factors that may negate a large outbreak. Storms may cluster quick enough to be linear mode as well.

[EF-5bigj]

I hope it doesn't go high risk actually we will know more on Monday I suppose.

[EF-5bigj]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Moderate risk for Tuesday

[Ntxw]

Lake Travis' Mansfield dam opens its flood gates first time in 9 years officially. Being nearly 4 ft above conservation. We live to see that day again

[Tireman4]

Lake Travis' Mansfield dam opens its flood gates first time in 9 years officially. Being nearly 4 ft above conservation. We live to see that day again

Wow, after 2011..who would have thunk it...

[Jarodm12]

How about these models the wrf ttu model and the nam hi res seems to show explosive development right over DFW tomorrow.. I'm surprised the moderate risk is so far up north all the models seem to be showing the most activity in north Texas, what's that about?

[Tireman4]

Well, I am not a met, but this is an ever changing situation. The even is still a day away, so I would continue to monitor the situation.

[Brent]

:double:

How about these models the wrf ttu model and the nam hi res seems to show explosive development right over DFW tomorrow.. I'm surprised the moderate risk is so far up north all the models seem to be showing the most activity in north Texas, what's that about?

The models are not in agreement on the explosive development from what I've seen... we'll just have to wait and see. I think there's a realistic chance it's just a squall line in DFW, the better tornado dynamics are further north where the MDT is.

[katheria]

Blah we dont need anymore large hail...

[TheProfessor]

:double:

How about these models the wrf ttu model and the nam hi res seems to show explosive development right over DFW tomorrow.. I'm surprised the moderate risk is so far up north all the models seem to be showing the most activity in north Texas, what's that about?

The models are not in agreement on the explosive development from what I've seen... we'll just have to wait and see. I think there's a realistic chance it's just a squall line in DFW, the better tornado dynamics are further north where the MDT is.

I would not be surprised if they extended the MDT further south tomorrow for hail. The main concern it the CAP not breaking further south and so the confidence is not as high. If they see the CAP break later in the day I think the MDT will get extended southward.

[Ntxw]

Hrrr the past couple of runs have tried to punch a storm or two and track them near the I-20 corridor. Its been known to be overzealous with the dryline this season, but if that happens then we could see a lone supercell late this afternoon with wind and big hail. Big if though, strong cap

[Brent]

Blah we dont need anymore large hail...

I agree with that... still so many signs of the last hail here.

[katheria]

Blah we dont need anymore large hail...

I agree with that... still so many signs of the last hail here.

Yep brent way too much, friends car lot got hit 16 cars and her house...not fun....
Another friend aunts house took a direct hit
We were lucky im just down 78 by firewheel
Im still dealing with the hail claims...i work at sf

[Brent]

Blah we dont need anymore large hail...

I agree with that... still so many signs of the last hail here.

Yep brent way too much, friends car lot got hit 16 cars and her house...not fun....
Another friend aunts house took a direct hit
We were lucky im just down 78 by firewheel
Im still dealing with the hail claims...i work at sf

It's been unreal really... I live on the east side of Wylie which was the hardest hit and you can't go anywhere without seeing signs of it. Everyone I talk to has a story from it... virtually every house/yard has a tarp somewhere. There's been some improvement with the sunny weather this weekend, but it's still pretty obvious. I've been to several businesses on 78 with north facing windows that still have hail damage on the windows.