Texas Spring 2016

[Ntxw]

Speaking of hail, DFW and San Antonio has already been very expensive at nearly 3 billion together. These storms are becoming more and more expensive...

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit concerned regarding the sensible weather pattern expected as we end April and begin May. The Ensembles continue to advertise a Rex Block over Greenland somewhat similar to what we have seen since mid April. Typically such a pattern spells repeated rounds of severe weather potential and the possibility of Excessive Rainfall across areas that do not need any additional heavy rain. I am particularly watching late this week into the coming weekend where the Global ensembles are suggesting a potent upper cold core trough sending embedded impulses across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana. The Updated Weather Prediction Center Extended Outlook also is monitoring the potential which further raises an eyebrow.



EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1002 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

VALID 12Z WED APR 27 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016

...HEAVY, POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS ADDING TO RECORD 366 DAY TOTALS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK/LA/AR WEDNESDAY, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...SEVERE WEATHER ALSO POSSIBLE...

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN/MODEL PREFERENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE REPETITIVE
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG GREENLAND RIDGE/EASTERN CANADIAN
UPPER LOW BLOCKING COUPLET CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN FLOW. TO THE WEST MID-CONTINENT, A REX BLOCK
CONFIGURATION REMAINS RELATIVELY STEADFAST, WITH DEEP CYCLONES
MOVING SLOWLY UNDER ITS BASE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD MAY PORTEND BETTER THAN
NORMAL PREDICTABILITY INTO SMALLER SCALES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROBUST MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLAMS
INTO CA AND THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY TO LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. LATE WEEK TIMING ISSUES FROM THE WEST TOWARDS
THE PLAINS DEVELOP WITH RECENT ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
OUTPACING THE REST OF GUIDANCE. DECENT UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLITUDE
LENDS WPC PREFERENCE FOR A SOLUTION ON THE STEADILY PROGRESSIVE
BUT OVERALL SLOWER SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS.

FOR THE PRESSURES, WINDS, AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS, USED A COMPROMISE
OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A 06Z GFS/00Z BIAS-CORRECTED
NAEFS MEAN COMPROMISE THEREAFTER. THE TEMPERATURE/CLOUD/DEW
POINT/WEATHER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE BASED ON A MORE 00Z
NAEFS-HEAVY SOLUTION. OUR PREFERENCE ALSO MAINTAINS REASONABLY
GOOD WPC CONTINUITY.


WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MULTIPLE ENERGETIC/STEADILY PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED SYSTEMS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER 48
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. AN EMPHASIS FOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE WEST THEN SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD FOCUS OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST/ROCKIES. SOME ADDITIONAL SPRING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THERE IS A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL FOR OK/TX/AR/LA THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, FIRST ON WEDNESDAY AND MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY. SINCE APRIL
22 LAST YEAR, A SWATH OF EASTERN TX, SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL OK, AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF AR AND LA HAVE RECORDED RECORD RAINFALL PRIOR
TO THESE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE PLAINS/MS VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS -- CONSULT LATEST
SPC OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INFORMATION.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL

[Ntxw]

Agreed srain, the late week system will be a huge weather maker. Much more flooding and severe weather for larger real estate than early week for Texas. Those flood watches will make presence again.

[Brent]

A question I have regarding home and vehicle damage. A lot of properties are still waiting for repairs as in some cases are really backed up. If these areas per say experience another hail storm with more damage would they then have to pay the deductible again as the new incident would be a whole different claim before the repair is made?

The Euro definitely puts some on the worry train.

I know some people who had separate claims already between the first hailstorm in march and the big one. Pretty crazy.

[Ntxw]

A question I have regarding home and vehicle damage. A lot of properties are still waiting for repairs as in some cases are really backed up. If these areas per say experience another hail storm with more damage would they then have to pay the deductible again as the new incident would be a whole different claim before the repair is made?

The Euro definitely puts some on the worry train.

I know some people who had separate claims already between the first hailstorm in march and the big one. Pretty crazy.

It happened to me in 2012 but the second event I was smart enough to take precautions so I didn't file two claims.

[TheProfessor]

Is there any chance that these multiple bad hailstorms could be correlated the atmosphere's reaction to a decaying ENSO/La Nina event? I just looked up some of the worst Hail years in the DFW area and some of the years listed had multiple significant hail events. The years were 1992, 1995, 2003, 2012, and 2016. All of these years had an El Nino or La Nina that somewhat decayed at least. Hasn't happened every decaying event though so perhaps there isn't much correlation. Interesting though, it seems that 1992, 1995, and 2016(as of March) all had increasing PDOs through out the Spring. And although negative, 2012 had an increase in PDO between May and June. I don't know if this means anything at all or it's just a coincidence.

[Ntxw]

Is there any chance that these multiple bad hailstorms could be correlated the atmosphere's reaction to a decaying ENSO/La Nina event? I just looked up some of the worst Hail years in the DFW area and some of the years listed had multiple significant hail events. The years were 1992, 1995, 2003, 2012, and 2016. All of these years had an El Nino or La Nina that somewhat decayed at least. Hasn't happened every decaying event though so perhaps there isn't much correlation. Interesting though, it seems that 1992, 1995, and 2016(as of March) all had increasing PDOs through out the Spring. And although negative, 2012 had an increase in PDO between May and June. I don't know if this means anything at all or it's just a coincidence.

It's a tough thing to really track. There is always supercells that dumps major hail somewhere in North Texas every spring. Most of the time it is open fields in open counties such as rural Montague county or wise county etc. But some years they track along the big cities of DFW. That's when you get the videos and price tag. Kind of chance I think. As severe as the Collin/Rockwall/Dallas counties hail were, it's a frequent occurrence in storms much worse all the time. It's just luck who gets it. In 2011 near the triple point, Ennis got hit by several supercells one after another in a span of several hours dropping baseball hail on them, the same system that brought the 4/27 outbreak.

But you might have something when considering frequency of occurrence during a spring. The more of them that occurs the more likely a location to get hit

[gboudx]

That's a good question Ntxw. My understanding is if a roof needs replacing it doesn't matter if more hail hits a damaged roof. Because until the claim is settled you can withdraw it if there is additional damage. Once you settle then a new claim has to be opened. So it can really suck. This happened to a friend recently. They got a new roof installed then the April 11 hail storm damaged the new roof. But a good general contractor will work to cover most of the deductible using their Overhead and Profit.

We're not replacing ours until about June. You have 180 days once it's settled.

[Ntxw]

That's a good question Ntxw. My understanding is if a roof needs replacing it doesn't matter if more hail hits a damaged roof. Because until the claim is settled you can withdraw it if there is additional damage. Once you settle then a new claim has to be opened. So it can really suck. This happened to a friend recently. They got a new roof installed then the April 11 hail storm damaged the new roof. But a good general contractor will work to cover most of the deductible using their Overhead and Profit.

We're not replacing ours until about June. You have 180 days once it's settled.

Ahh ok that makes sense, thanks for the answer! So if you've repaired it and it gets hit again then you're really screwed.

[gboudx]

You would only withdraw if there is no additional damage. In my case, we had no broken windows, and no damage to the chimney. If another hail storm breaks a window or damages the chimney, I'd withdraw. Right now all of our gutters, 2 garage doors and roof(including flashing, vent caps, etc) is being replaced.

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauleys latest is a confirmation of what has previously been discussed, Tuesday could be wild. His Stat Method has been consistent with the severe potential.

[EF-5bigj]

There are supercells firing in Kansas I don't know what that says about Tuesday though.

[Texas Snowman]

The latest from Steve McCauley on Facebook:

"I was hoping I would not have to post this graphic, but unfortunately, the data have been consistent now for the past 5 days. It appears a severe weather outbreak will occur from central Texas north into Kansas beginning late Tuesday afternoon and continuing into the evening. This includes the DFW Metroplex.

Atmospheric conditions will become extremely unstable as early as Monday afternoon. Our first test of the strength of the cap will come in the afternoon as the dryline approaches the Metroplex. Although the atmosphere will be capable of supporting quarter to grapefruit sized hail, the cap will be very strong, and thus it "should" prevent the dryline from initiating such storms on Monday.

It should be recognized, however, that the cap will become paper thin by late Monday afternoon, which means it would not take too much more of an effort to break through and to see an isolated storm or two fire up. But I have seen paper thin caps stop a tornado outbreak, and so we are in hopes it will hold and let us have a quiet Monday evening.

If there is a weakness in the cap that has gone undetected by our weather observation network, it would be possible for a storm to exploit that weakness and squeeze through, but that is an outside chance at best.

But as we have been discussing for the past five days, it is Tuesday that is of primary concern. The cap will strengthen Monday night and will once again try to shut down the sloshing dryline as it approaches from the west Tuesday afternoon. But this time, a strong upper-level disturbance will approach, and it insists on coming in NEGATIVE TILT - the strongest orientation it can have.

Also, winds converging along the dryline will result in rapidly rising air to our west. The combination of our negative tilt upper-air disturbance weakening the cap and the rising air along the dryline will likely be more than enough to punch several sizable holes into the cap through which clouds will accelerate leading to explosive supercell thunderstorm development by late afternoon. Storms will then track NE which puts the Metroplex in the position of picking up some of these storms.

This is what the latest data continue to suggest, and because the Stat Method has not changed its outlook for 5 days now, confidence continues to go up that this event will indeed take place.

BUT ... it is still NOT guaranteed. Last minute changes in projected storm path or anticipated cap strength can change this outlook just as quickly, so please stay tuned for updates."

[EF-5bigj]

It all depends on the cap it seems like.

[WeatherGuesser]

Since you're talking roofs .....

What about metal roofs down there? Are there many? Or mostly shingle and tile? If metal, how much damage did they take? Dented or penetrated?

[Ntxw]

Since you're talking roofs .....

What about metal roofs down there? Are there many? Or mostly shingle and tile? If metal, how much damage did they take? Dented or penetrated?

There are very few and far in between. Maybe some commercial buildings but I have not seen them. Majority is shingle and tile. There is a hail/wind resistant material usually of a polymer or plastic/rubberized combo that do stand up well. Though few have them usually people who have been hit before and chose that option as they are repaired.

[WeatherGuesser]

Since you're talking roofs .....

What about metal roofs down there? Are there many? Or mostly shingle and tile? If metal, how much damage did they take? Dented or penetrated?

There are very few and far in between.

OK. Metal is very common here. I did mine a few years ago. I was hoping to hear real-life experiences that they were only dented and not penetrated like shingle roofs.

[Brent]

Since you're talking roofs .....

What about metal roofs down there? Are there many? Or mostly shingle and tile? If metal, how much damage did they take? Dented or penetrated?

There are very few and far in between.

OK. Metal is very common here. I did mine a few years ago. I was hoping to hear real-life experiences that they were only dented and not penetrated like shingle roofs.

My parents in Alabama have a metal roof but I honestly cannot even remember if I've seen one out here...

[Jarodm12]

Anyone know the threat level for wylie in collin country on tuesday it appears the nam hi res at 60hrs so 12am wednesday shows storms that have formed out infront of the squall line? is this accurate? can someone give an analysis?

[Ntxw]

OK. Metal is very common here. I did mine a few years ago. I was hoping to hear real-life experiences that they were only dented and not penetrated like shingle roofs.

I would assume a metal roof would be dented extensively though. If you've been through a hailstorm and look at a car the dents are many. For every dent seen visibility from a short distance there is probably 5 more around it that you have too look close. Just take a look at a car that's been hit. The chunk expense in a vehicle is not so much the big holes but the many little ones that it would be cheaper just to replace the entire sheet. Even the more common egg to golfball hail would cost $ on a metal roof.