Texas Spring 2016

[TheProfessor]

CPC also says it will continue to rain. From history, usually when their confidence is high (dark greens) usually signals a major flood event.

[img]http://i65.tinypic.com/30a9gra.gif[]

[img]http://i66.tinypic.com/315ken4.gif[]

^8-14 day is probably from the deep, far south ULL. Got watch that one for all aspects of weather, severe, flood and everything

The last two weeks of April and the first two weeks of May have been hyped up for the Central and Southern plains for a while now in something called Organic Forecasting. I' haven't done much research yet, but from what I have seen they don't do a bad job. The key is that they don't forecast exactly where a storm will be but that there will be a storm. Then when it gets closer to the time frame they use things like the Bering Sea Rule and the East Asia Rule and the Typhoon Rule. It sounds interesting and I will probably look into it more this Summer.

[somethingfunny]

Where's the 100's? I'm freezing

In more serious matters... FWD is trying their hand at forecasting the entire month... I wanna see how this goes lol

So..... how are they doing??

[gboudx]

Heh, looks like they nailed it at least with the precip. The hail storm that pounded Wyile and my part of Rockwall was on the 11th.

[TheProfessor]

Wow SPC already has an enhanced risk for Northern Texas and Oklahoma on day 6, including Denton and parts of Collin Counties.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like I might be coming back to a nice wet Summer


screen capture tool


adult photo hosting

[EF-5bigj]

Tuesday sounds like it could be pretty dangerous and the SPC has pretty strong wording. I wonder if we get the first high risk of the year?

[Brent]

Where's the 100's? I'm freezing

In more serious matters... FWD is trying their hand at forecasting the entire month... I wanna see how this goes lol

So..... how are they doing??

Well nailed the storm on the 11th... the signs are still everywhere here in Wylie from that. Every house it seems here on my street has a tarp on the roof or the car... and for some it's both even now. We've had 2 partial ceiling collapses since Monday morning and I'm sure many others are dealing with the same thing or worse.

Even the below normal temps after that storm were correct.

Only a day or two off the rain event Sunday/Monday that exacerbated problems

and the active pattern certainly looks legit.

[Ntxw]

FW seems to mentions the suspicions I had about the strong cap early next week. Plus that storm was moving too far north anyway so not enough lift to break the cap. It should be a bigger event in Oklahoma and Kansas. Can't rule out a stray storm. Also the late week system is the more impressive one being more anomalous, bigger, and further south. I am more interested in that one being a 2015-esque system




.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAINY WEEK HAS PUSHED EAST INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ENSUED
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS DOWNGLIDE WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
PROVIDE PLEASANT HUMIDITY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE REDUCED
HUMIDITY WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S...BUT SUNNY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AND DESPITE
ITS UNUSUAL TRAJECTORY...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ITS EVOLUTION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL PRIMARY IMPACT
SOUTH TEXAS...IT WILL ALLOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RAPIDLY
RETURN TO THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY...WHEN A DRYLINE
WILL INVADE FROM THE WEST. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S ON THE HUMID SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS A STOUT CAP AND
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT.
IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM...THEY COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.
IN THE POST-DRYLINE AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY REACH 90 DEGREES.

THE NEXT UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL RACE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE
ROCKIES IN A 24-HOUR SPAN...RESULTING IN RAPID LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...REINFORCING THE GULF MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 80S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL TOP
3000J/KG REGIONWIDE. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LAYER OF THE
CAP. AND WITH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE
DRYLINE MAY REMAIN QUIET. HOWEVER...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
SOME DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY.
THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS
WILL BE IN OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN NORTH
TEXAS WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. EVEN IF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN CAPPED...
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST MAY BECOME A NOCTURNAL MCS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
DRYLINE EVENT MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY BE THE FOCUS ON THURSDAY. THE
PIPELINE OF STORM SYSTEMS OFF THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AND THE ACTIVE PATTERN SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
ABATING AS MAY BEGINS.

[Ntxw]

In other news, very subtle. But look at the waters along the Equator just west of western South America. You can see the silver of blue. That is the first emergence, the birth of, La Nina.

[1900hurricane]

[EF-5bigj]

I can't say I'm excited at the prospect of likely La Niña...

[TheProfessor]

I am optimistic but approaching with caution, I might regret the La Nina next Summer, but Winter could be quite fun for me. I'm just hoping it's not a 98-99 redux.

[Brent]

There are some cool la ninas and most of them are floating around the analogs this year... so I'm cautiously optimistic but yeah never be excited.

[Ntxw]

There are some cool la ninas and most of them are floating around the analogs this year... so I'm cautiously optimistic but yeah never be excited.

It can't be as bad as the Nino we just went through, at least for temps. It was a fairly hot summer, fall, and winter. It has to at least be better than that at least? Low standards.

[Brent]

There are some cool la ninas and most of them are floating around the analogs this year... so I'm cautiously optimistic but yeah never be excited.

It can't be as bad as the Nino we just went through, at least for temps. It was a fairly hot summer, fall, and winter. It has to at least be better than that at least? Low standards.

That's kind of what I was thinking too last summer fall winter was frankly awful

[TheProfessor]

Man I wish I could go to Oklahoma or Kansas early next week and chase with someone, it's looking like this could be a potent outbreak there. I don't usually look at the weather channel anymore, but someone posted in another forum that they're thinking it could be a moderate to high outbreak with long track tornadoes,they are also saying to keep an eye on the late week storm as well. Also the potential out break could occur on the 26th, which will be the 5th year anniversary of the 4/26/11 outbreak and the 25th anniversary of the Andover, Ks Tornado.

[weatherdude1108]

Lake Travis is now almost a foot above full. No desertification of Austin yet.

Just saw this article on Lake Buchanan. Apparently a flood gate was opened on the dam for the first time since 2007. They are maintaining the level so it doesn't exceed 1018 feet msl because of floodgate strengthening and upgrades at Buchanan dam. So if this weren't the case, I am guessing the lake would be full already. But, Buchanan is at its highest level since June 2008. I know, I'm being greedy.

A floodgate on Lake Buchanan was opened Thursday evening for the first time since the summer flooding of 2007. This will require additional releases from Lake Travis through hydroelectric generation, and one floodgate opening on Lake Austin’s Tom Miller Dam.

(LCRA) Inflows to the Highland Lakes have increased because of rains upstream of Lake Buchanan over the night of April 20-21. With increased inflows, the level at Lake Buchanan is approaching 1,018 feet above mean sea level (feet msl). LCRA is temporarily maintaining Lake Buchanan at a level that does not exceed 1,018 feet msl because of an ongoing project to upgrade and strengthen the floodgates and other facilities at Buchanan Dam.

In response to additional rainfall and inflows from areas upstream of Lake Buchanan, LCRA opened one floodgate at Buchanan Dam at 6 PM on Thursday, April 21. Downstream of Buchanan Dam, the level of Inks Lake is currently about one foot above the overflow spillway of Inks Dam. The additional release from Buchanan Dam will cause the level of Inks Lake to rise to about two feet above the spillway of Inks Dam after 6 PM.

http://kxan.com/blog/2016/04/21/lake-bu ... ince-2007/

[EF-5bigj]

Man I wish I could go to Oklahoma or Kansas early next week and chase with someone, it's looking like this could be a potent outbreak there. I don't usually look at the weather channel anymore, but someone posted in another forum that they're thinking it could be a moderate to high outbreak with long track tornadoes,they are also saying to keep an eye on the late week storm as well. Also the potential out break could occur on the 26th, which will be the 5th year anniversary of the 4/26/11 outbreak and the 25th anniversary of the Andover, Ks Tornado.

If Tuesday turns out as predicted with violent,long track tornadoes it could be a deadly day. I believe we could see a high risk and PDS tornado watch. But we will see how it comes together weather is unpredictable but it's that time of year and late April has a reputation.

[Texas Snowman]

From Steve McCauley on Facebook:

"Here is the atmospheric setup for next Tuesday (see prior post for Monday). Energy levels in the atmosphere will be approaching 4,500 by late afternoon and would be able to support grapefruit-sized hail along with a significant threat of tornadic supercells.

The cap will continue to be parked over north Texas, but the problem is this: a NEGATIVE TILT upper-level disturbance will be moving across the Texas Panhandle late in the day Tuesday. The NEGATIVE TILT is the strongest orientation an upper-level disturbance can assume. If this turns out to be the case, the cap may have met its match.

If the disturbance gets too close, it could cause the cap over our area to become paper thin, even to the point of breaking. And when the dryline punches in from the west late in the day, it could exploit this weakness in our cap and allow storms to break through leading to explosive severe storm development.

So what needs to happen to avoid this severe weather outbreak on Tuesday is for the cap to get even stronger, and we would want to see that negative tilt disturbance stay as far away as possible.

Unfortunately, this best-case scenario does not show up in the data at this time. But we will be watching...."

[Ntxw]

There is still a strong "atmospheric" Nino going on. So while the ocean is trying to build a La Nina, effects of the incumbent El Nino is still strong.

SOI tank supports heavy rain events.

15 Apr 2016 1009.36 1011.25 -30.80 -11.62 -13.36
16 Apr 2016 1009.91 1010.95 -24.70 -12.70 -13.27
17 Apr 2016 1009.99 1010.35 -19.80 -13.55 -13.27
18 Apr 2016 1009.74 1010.10 -19.80 -14.21 -13.26
19 Apr 2016 1010.00 1010.50 -20.80 -14.76 -13.25
20 Apr 2016 1009.90 1013.80 -45.30 -16.08 -13.48
21 Apr 2016 1009.11 1011.75 -36.20 -17.26 -13.57