Texas Spring 2016

[Snowman67]

This excerpt from this afternoon's forecast discussion (put out at 3:14pm) from Houston/Galveston:

A MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
MODEL QPF FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES. MODEL PW/S REACH FROM 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO THINK THAT LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Hopefully those type of localized rainfall totals stay away from the hard hit areas.

[gboudx]

Looks like the QLCS/MCS forecasted by the DFW NWS has developed and is on it's way.

BTW is a QLCS and MCS the same thing? Is a QLCS a type of MCS? Looking it up online reveals different meanings.

[TheAustinMan]

Looks like the QLCS/MCS forecasted by the DFW NWS has developed and is on it's way.

BTW is a QLCS and MCS the same thing? Is a QLCS a type of MCS? Looking it up online reveals different meanings.

A QLCS (Quasi-linear convective system) is a type of MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). An MCS typically refers to any large organized system of thunderstorms that move together (in a system). This can be linear, such as a squall line, but they can also be large clumps of showers and thunderstorms. QLCSs are the MCSs that are linear, such as squall lines and derechos.

Simply put, a QLCS is a type of MCS that moves as a line, hence the name quasi-linaer convective system.

[Brent]

Tornado Warning just east of Mineral Wells... storms have been ramping up in the last hour

[KatDaddy]

Flash Flood Watch continues for SE TX through this evening. MCS moving across NTX this morning is approaching N portions of SE TX with mesoscale models indicating a weakening trend while additional development development occurs along the outflow boundary later today. Models shows most areas with less than 2" totals with a few isolated higher totals of 3-4" possible. A cold front tomorrow will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms with two day average totals from 1-3" across SE TX. Much lower rainfall totals are very good news after the previous deluge but could still have some additional impacts on basins, creeks, bayous, and rivers. The SPC also has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across SE TX. Friday afternoon and Saturday still looking like nice days before moisture begins to return from the GOM.

[Ntxw]

Lake Travis is now almost a foot above full. No desertification of Austin yet.

[weatherdude1108]

No desert now. My yard is definitely more of a swamp right now than a desert.
Looks like Buchanan is only three feet away from being full also. I just want Buchanan to get full, just to say it is full. That way I know it is possible.

Lake Buchanan
Last Update: Apr 20 2016 5:06AM
Inflows: Inflows to Lake Buchanan are currently below levels that would require flood operations at Buchanan Dam.

Gate Operations: No gate operations for flood are expected at this time.

Lake level forecast (Forecast is subject to change as conditions develop): Lake Buchanan is expected to rise to between 1017 and 1018 ft over the next few days. The forecasted lake level could change with additional rainfall expected today.


Lake Travis
Last Update: Apr 20 2016 5:07AM

Inflows: Inflows to Lake Travis are currently below levels that would require flood operations at Mansfield Dam.

Gate Operations: No gate operations for flood are expected at this time.

Lake level forecast (Forecast is subject to change as conditions develop): Lake Travis could rise to 682 to 683 ft over the few days. The forecasted lake level could change with additional rainfall expected this evening.

[Ntxw]

The push and pull, yin and yang of the climates demarcated by the wetter east Texas, drier west Texas. Middle child along the I-35 line. Some years it goes west, others east. I am glad for the lakes. It will make this summer easier to go through should it be a hot one, though right now 2007esque summer is a strong possibility

[weatherdude1108]

The push and pull, yin and yang of the climates demarcated by the wetter east Texas, drier west Texas. Middle child along the I-35 line. Some years it goes west, others east. I am glad for the lakes. It will make this summer easier to go through should it be a hot one, though right now 2007esque summer is a strong possibility

Oh man, 2007 was incredibly wet! Forgive me if I am wrong, but didn't that start off dry in the Spring, and in June, there was some kind of low pressure in Oklahoma that pretty much headed due south, setting up a feedback loop of low pressure in the atmosphere the entire Summer over Texas until late August? It created wave after wave of rainstorms. Multiple floodgates were open on Lake Travis. People were stopping by to see the spectacle of the flood waters being released. I think that was the last time Lake Buchanan was full.

[TheProfessor]

Early next week needs to be watched, it's still a week out, but it looks like a potent outbreak could be approaching. Just in time for when I will be studying for Finals too.

[EF-5bigj]

Potent tornado outbreak?

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah, Oklahoma City TV met Mike Morgan is posting about a ramped up severe weather threat next week.

[Ntxw]

I'm actually quite interested toward the end of the week next week. There seems to be signs of a system going very far to the south (for the time of year). Early week system I would worry the cap may hold, at least in Texas outside of the panhandle.

[EF-5bigj]

I get the feeling Dixie Alley will act up again as always

[Ntxw]

I get the feeling Dixie Alley will act up again as always

Dixie alley is kind of protected in this case. SW trough usually means ridging in the southeast. Going to be a hot summer there. 2007 was a toasty summer for the US as whole except for the southwest

[EF-5bigj]

Thank goodness but I hope everyone stays safe depending on how it all unfolds.

[Ntxw]

Another MCS/QLCS rolling through late tonight into early tomorrow across the state. These are tacking in quick inch or two of rain. April will have been a fairly wet month across our state.



Cluster of storms starting in the panhandle is it

[Ntxw]

Should be through central and SE Texas by morning. I know you Houston folks do not want anymore rain.

[Ntxw]

CPC also says it will continue to rain. From history, usually when their confidence is high (dark greens) usually signals a major flood event.





^8-14 day is probably from the deep, far south ULL. Got watch that one for all aspects of weather, severe, flood and everything

[Annie Oakley]

From https://twitter.com/hcfcd?ref_src=twsrc

HCFCD ‏@hcfcd 4h4 hours ago

Flooding warning for Addicks and Barker Reservoirs for the first time ever. #houwx #hounews txwx #twc

And then
HCFCD ‏@hcfcd 2h2 hours ago

A ray of hope: Creeks that are still high will start falling in 12-24 hrs then water can recede from streets and homes #HouNews