cause it might be going away for awhile. Through the entire day 16 run almost everyday will have a chance of rain.Texas Spring 2016
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Brent
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
The GFS says I hope yall have enjoyed the sun... cause it might be going away for awhile. Through the entire day 16 run almost everyday will have a chance of rain.
cause it might be going away for awhile. Through the entire day 16 run almost everyday will have a chance of rain.
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#neversummer
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TexasSam
- Category 2
- Posts: 573
- Age: 66
- Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 12:16 am
- Location: Port Arthur, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2016
I remember a time in the 90's when it was cloudy for about 2 weeks, and everyone's yards turned yellow.
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2016
EWX Office says isolated 7-10 inches if GFS verifies with its Monday/Monday night solution. 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CURRENTLY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES IS SPLIT
INTO TWO. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOVEMENT WITH OUR UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. FOR
TONIGHT...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS. MOST RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING BEFORE
REACHING OUR WESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION TO THIS SMALL CHANCE...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES WEAK LIFT.
FOR SATURDAY...LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING VERSION AROUND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
UNDERNEATH THE CAP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CHANCE
THAT AN UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL REMAINING JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCES FOR
STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST ROUND OF POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE
AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT THE BEST AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...MOST OF THE CWA IS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DECENT SHEAR. THE CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE LONG AND SKINNY WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH OF A HAIL THREAT.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT
OF WINDS...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST COMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE DRY...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME RAIN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS WET
SOLUTION RUN AFTER RUN AND THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A MCV
MODELED IN THE 850 MB LAYER. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCV ON MONDAY GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT GIVEN THE FACT A SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODEL IS FORECASTING A MESOSCALE EVENT...THIS SOLUTION NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOWING ITS VERY WET
SOLUTION WHICH DOES GIVE SOME CREDIT TO IT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 1-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST TO 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY
RECEIVE 7-10 INCHES ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH ITS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SOLUTION. THE FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE
CLEAR AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AS MORE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS
BEGIN TO PICK UP THE EVENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING. AM NOT
ANTICIPATING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CURRENTLY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES IS SPLIT
INTO TWO. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOVEMENT WITH OUR UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. FOR
TONIGHT...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS. MOST RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING BEFORE
REACHING OUR WESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION TO THIS SMALL CHANCE...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES WEAK LIFT.
FOR SATURDAY...LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING VERSION AROUND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
UNDERNEATH THE CAP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CHANCE
THAT AN UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL REMAINING JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCES FOR
STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST ROUND OF POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE
AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT THE BEST AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...MOST OF THE CWA IS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DECENT SHEAR. THE CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE LONG AND SKINNY WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH OF A HAIL THREAT.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT
OF WINDS...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST COMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE DRY...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME RAIN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS WET
SOLUTION RUN AFTER RUN AND THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A MCV
MODELED IN THE 850 MB LAYER. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCV ON MONDAY GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT GIVEN THE FACT A SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODEL IS FORECASTING A MESOSCALE EVENT...THIS SOLUTION NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOWING ITS VERY WET
SOLUTION WHICH DOES GIVE SOME CREDIT TO IT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 1-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST TO 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY
RECEIVE 7-10 INCHES ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH ITS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SOLUTION. THE FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE
CLEAR AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AS MORE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS
BEGIN TO PICK UP THE EVENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING. AM NOT
ANTICIPATING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3506
- Age: 28
- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Re: Texas Spring 2016
You guys enjoy your rain, I never thought I would ever get sick of rain, but I did and now I'm enjoying this sunshine and 70s.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
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jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 8245
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
- Location: The Woodlands, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Good Discussion from NWS - Houston/Galveston
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS THE UPPER LOW NOW NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS NUDGES FARTHER EAST TOWARDS TEXAS ON SUNDAY... IT
WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FARTHER INTO THE GULF.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES /ALMOST RECORD
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ AS WELL AS CURVED HODOGRAPHS...
MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG... AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7 C/KM. WITH THE BEST LIFT FOCUSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
THINK THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESIDE OVER
THESE AREAS. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES... DAMAGING WINDS... AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.
BY MONDAY... THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME... A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION
BUT LOOKS TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN FORECAST
RAIN TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 9-10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME... WITH VARYING LOCATIONS FOR
THESE QPF BULLSEYES. SOME OF THESE BULLSEYES HAVE BEEN ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT OR AS THE RESULT OF A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS PAINTS A SWATH OF 13 INCH
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY... A SOLUTION WHICH EXCEEDS ALL
OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY ALMOST 3 INCHES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE/DEVELOP SOME KIND OF
MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX BUT BECAUSE OF ITS RESOLUTION IS
DOING SO POORLY. ADDING TO SUPPORT OF THIS POSSIBILITY... THE
PAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE SHOWN SOME KIND OF
SHORTWAVE/ RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT THAT IS LIKELY BEING
GENERATED BY THIS ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE CONVECTION. THE EUROPEAN ALSO
DISPLAYS A SIMILAR FEATURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT IS MUCH
WEAKER.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY FROM THIS IS NOT TO FOCUS SO MUCH ON THE RANDOM
BULLSEYES EACH MODEL IS GENERATING AS THEY DIFFER BOTH SPATIALLY
AND TEMPORALLY... BUT THAT THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN BOTH MODELS IN
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A MESOSCALE FEATURE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL NEAR THE REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY RAIN EPISODE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS... BUT HOW MUCH AND
WHICH AREAS WILL BE DEFINED BY WHERE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES /WHICH
THE MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT/ ARE LOCATED WHEN THE EVENT
ACTUALLY BEGINS. FOR NOW... HIGHLIGHTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR THROUGH TUESDAY AS HAVING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAVY RAIN BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.
THE MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE REGION EXISTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHEARS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST.
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
Sunday into Monday will be quite a show. Texas radar will be lit up with rainfal streaming northward across the state (slowly, emphasis on slow) moving slightly east. Rain bomb in there somewhere.
Unfortunately with Rivers and Lakes mostly full, we'll hear news and emergencies of flooded roads and creeks rapidly rising in some cases. The pattern may put a damper yet again on the lakeside economies. Hopefully no repeat of the Blanco and San Marcos rivers floods of 2015. 8-10"+ is never good for anybody. This is extending up into Oklahoma too. Texoma will probably threaten the spillway again.
Unfortunately with Rivers and Lakes mostly full, we'll hear news and emergencies of flooded roads and creeks rapidly rising in some cases. The pattern may put a damper yet again on the lakeside economies. Hopefully no repeat of the Blanco and San Marcos rivers floods of 2015. 8-10"+ is never good for anybody. This is extending up into Oklahoma too. Texoma will probably threaten the spillway again.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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TexasBreeze
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:50 pm
Re: Texas Spring 2016
GFS is remaining very consistent about 10"+ bullseye hits around SC/SE TX in each run! It is surely a sign of a slow moving complex....
It is surely a sign of a slow moving complex....
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-
TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3445
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Yeah that GFS bullseye is blowing my mind with its estimates.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Both the latest 18Z and 00Z GFS runs have nuked the middle Brazos river basin with 12-18" of rain. Like HGX mentioned, I wouldn't take the specifics too seriously yet, but it does look like the model is trying to resolve something that would result in some big time rainfall.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
-
jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 8245
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
- Location: The Woodlands, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2016
The GFS still has the biggest bullseye just to the west of Houston (Columbus to Bellville) with 18", and another one down south in Galveston/Brazoria counties. The Euro is just insane crazy with two 8-10" bullseyes W and NW of Houston, but the mother lode is in SE Polk County with over 25"! Let's hope those do not verify - that would be incredible flooding.
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
241 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM
TUESDAY ...
.SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING BOTH THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METROS.
THE MOST CONCERNING LOCATIONS ARE ALONG AND EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO
PEARSALL LINE. ON AVERAGE, THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 TO 12 INCHES. IMPACTS
WILL BE GREATER IN THE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281. LOWER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU BUT ENOUGH COULD FALL TO CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES. PLEASE STAY ALERT DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-219>225-170345-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0001.160417T1500Z-160419T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-
WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...
FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETSVILLE
241 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...
LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON AND WILSON.
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
* HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LEADING TO RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING: 3 TO
6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES.
* RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL SWELL QUICKLY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO LIKELY WHERE STORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. LOW WATER
CROSSINGS COULD BE QUICKLY INUNDATED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
$$
ALLEN
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
241 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM
TUESDAY ...
.SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING BOTH THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METROS.
THE MOST CONCERNING LOCATIONS ARE ALONG AND EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO
PEARSALL LINE. ON AVERAGE, THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 TO 12 INCHES. IMPACTS
WILL BE GREATER IN THE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281. LOWER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU BUT ENOUGH COULD FALL TO CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES. PLEASE STAY ALERT DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-219>225-170345-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0001.160417T1500Z-160419T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-
WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...
FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETSVILLE
241 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...
LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON AND WILSON.
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
* HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LEADING TO RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING: 3 TO
6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES.
* RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL SWELL QUICKLY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO LIKELY WHERE STORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. LOW WATER
CROSSINGS COULD BE QUICKLY INUNDATED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
$$
ALLEN
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Folks, the storms have rotation already on the radar. Thought this would happen tomorrow, not today in Central Texas.
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Sad news in the meteorological world - Dr. Bill Gray has died at age 86.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/6cd52e37 ... ead-age-86
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/6cd52e37 ... ead-age-86
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring 2016
TexasF6 wrote:Folks, the storms have rotation already on the radar. Thought this would happen tomorrow, not today in Central Texas.
There are a couple of supercells starting to hook.
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
DID ANYONE SEE THE NEAR 30IN RAIN EXPLOSION SWATH ON THE LAST RUN OF THE GFS???? 30 INCHES..........Where's Porta? Where's Wxman57??? NWTX?? Guys put the beers down at the cane' conference and post!!!!! This would be a disaster if it happens....I'm still calm though. The fact that the depiction was WIDE disturbs me. And over multiple days.....
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CYCLONE MIKE
- Category 5
- Posts: 2183
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
- Location: Gonzales, LA
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Will be interesting to see if they get it right or not. They nailed the north LA rain and flooding but busted on it for us down here in South la last month.
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
TheAustinMan
- Category 5
- Posts: 1047
- Age: 25
- Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
- Location: United States
- Contact:
Re: Texas Spring 2016
That is a lot of rain on the I-10 corridor! It's interesting how the GFS has been identifying that particular area as a hotspot for heavy rainfall, and it will be interesting to see if that all verifies. If the watersheds catch all that, there would be quite a bit of river flooding downstream.
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Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.
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TexasBreeze
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:50 pm
Re: Texas Spring 2016
TheAustinMan wrote:That is a lot of rain on the I-10 corridor! It's interesting how the GFS has been identifying that particular area as a hotspot for heavy rainfall, and it will be interesting to see if that all verifies. If the watersheds catch all that, there would be quite a bit of river flooding downstream.
The whole run over 16 days shows widespread 25/30" totals...
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