Texas Spring 2016

[Annie Oakley]

I'm in South Austin and it seems the weather has already moved Southeast. I pity those counties.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Storms blowing into the Houston metro area within the next couple hours. I will try and stay awake for the event as it passes through my area in Ft. Bend county.

[vbhoutex]

Storms just moved through Columbus area with radar indicated winds of 79mph. Bowing of the line indicates the probability of high winds.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT

* AT 1224 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR FAYETTEVILLE TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEIMAR TO
COLUMBUS TO 8 MILES EAST OF SUBLIME...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN ROSENBERG...SEALY...BROOKSHIRE...BELLVILLE...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...EAST BERNARD...WALLIS...FULSHEAR...SIMONTON...SAN FELIPE...
PATTISON...ORCHARD...WESTON LAKES...FRELSBURG...ALTAIR...CAT SPRING...
SHERIDAN...ROCK ISLAND AND GARWOOD.

[vbhoutex]

Ended up with 0.75" of rain and an impressive lightning and thunder display early this am at my location in W Houston. Needville had half dollar size hail with dime size reported in SW Metro.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah there have been several reports of very large hail across San Antonio as a severe storm moved through about an hour ago. Tennis ball size hail passed about 15 miles to the south of my family's house on the north side of town. My dad said he got about marble size. My family really dodged a bullet tonight.

My brother in San Antonio said he had golf ball sized hail last night and was going to check his car for damage.

My parents (also in SA) had marble-sized hail.

I saw reports of tennis ball size around city. Crazy!

We got thunder and lightning and almost an inch of rain.

http://www.kens5.com/mb/weather/first-a ... /129898966

[gto67]

At 1:00 am, I looked out my front window and saw a roof sitting in the street. After storm blew through, I went outside to survey property damage : pecan tree fell on my service line and my cargo trailer; weather head bent horizontal; awning gone; and yes there was a roof sitting in my street that have come from 50 yards from the west over pecan trees and houses. This second occurrence this has happened in Weimar in the past four years. I am beginning to believe I am living in tornado alley. Best of all no injuries.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Goodness, glad everyone is safe. Only about .57" of rain. Rained very hard for a short period of time but that was it. Didnt hear any hail. If there was any, it was very small.

[Shoshana]

Rain with thunder and lightning around here. Dog freaking out panting and drooling as I type this. She has never liked storms, but i swear she is getting worse about them as she gets older.

Have you tried a Thundershirt? It helped our dog. She is not needing it any more, she suddenly stopped being scared of storms. Now she is scared of the toaster!

Anyway, had a lot of lightning and rain here - the rain gauge had 2.11" in it this morning.

[weatherdude1108]

Rain with thunder and lightning around here. Dog freaking out panting and drooling as I type this. She has never liked storms, but i swear she is getting worse about them as she gets older.

Have you tried a Thundershirt? It helped our dog. She is not needing it any more, she suddenly stopped being scared of storms. Now she is scared of the toaster!

Anyway, had a lot of lightning and rain here - the rain gauge had 2.11" in it this morning.

I have heard of it. The vet mentioned it. Does PetsMart have it? There is one down the street from me. I may go look at lunch. I'll try anything at this point. My wife and I both had to wear earplugs, because her panting was louder than the thunder.lol

2.11? Awesome! We got 0.85. My boss got over 3 inches. He lives near Zilker. That is consistent with what the LCRA gauges reported. More in south Austin than north Austin this go around. It may be a wet weekend. The lakes are benefitting! They may flood if we get too much.

http://kxan.com/2016/04/13/overnight-ra ... nan-level/

[jasons2k]

I had a nice 1.06" of rain in the bucket when I emptied it yesterday. Looks like more is on the way. Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner:

Major storm system to bring widespread impacts to TX this weekend into early next week.

Excessive rainfall becoming increasingly likely with potential flash flooding and river flooding.

Discussion:
Powerful upper level storm system currently off the NW US coast will drop SSE and into the SW US over the next 48 hours. High pressure over the eastern US will result in the slowing down of this Pacific storm system over the SW US this weekend. Favorable low level wind trajectories off the western Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico will pump extremely high moisture levels into TX starting late Friday and peaking late Saturday into Monday. Large upper level system over the SW US will only slowly creep eastward this weekend into early next week as it runs up against the high pressure ridge along the US east coast. Waves of energy will rotate around the stalled parent low over NM sweeping across TX and interacting with the highly moisture air mass to produce many rounds of thunderstorms from Saturday (out west) to much of the state Sunday-Tuesday.

Think most of Saturday will feature breezy southerly winds under cloudy skies and a few passing S to N moving showers under a capping inversion (warm air a few thousand feet above the ground). Forecast models are coming into some agreement on a fairly strong short wave rotating out of the upper trough and across TX Saturday afternoon. This looks like the initial event across SW into the I-35 corridor Saturday evening into the overnight. Starting to be concerned about a slow moving training line of excessive rainfall cross that I-35 corridor “flash flood alley” Saturday night into Sunday. Model QPF is showing some healthy totals in this region during that time period which could lead to rapid flash flooding.

Expect this line/band of weather to move into SE TX on Sunday and move very slowly across the region. A few models really pound the area Sunday afternoon and all night into Monday morning with repeated thunderstorms producing excessive rainfall. GFS is showing a surface trough feature developing inland over SE TX Sunday into Monday with strong low level inflow off the Gulf and PWS at or over 1.9 inches (99th percentile for mid April). The ingredients are screaming flash flood set up…but the exact location of where the heaviest rains will set up is impossible to determine at this point.

Impacts:
WPC QPF products from Saturday-Tuesday is very concerning with widespread high amounts being shown across much of NC, C, and SE TX. Almost positive the placement will move around some over the next few days as is usual with such events, but someone is going to get a lot of rainfall during this time period given the atmospheric set up. It is still too early to get into specific totals, but think widespread 2-4 inches is a good bet with much higher isolated totals. 00Z GFS has 9.23 inches for KIAH Sunday into Monday…don’t think this will happen at IAH, but it shows the potential for such totals somewhere across the region.

Hydro:
We are not in the best hydro situation to accommodate such a widespread rainfall event. Rivers, flood control, and water supply lakes are still moving water from the early March flooding east of I-35 and grounds east of I-35 are generally saturated from the recent rainfall yesterday morning. The widespread and prolonged nature of this event is going to put a lot of pressure on area rivers and expect significant rises on almost all watersheds should the current QPF verify over the state. Some rivers would almost certainly go into flood with this magnitude of rainfall. I am particularly concerned with the Brazos and Navasota basins as models have been somewhat consist on high QPF over these basins, but think all basins are in play.

Severe Weather:
Think the overall severe threat will be highest Saturday west of I-35 where the best instability will be located. Air mass eastward becoming increasing saturate with warm rain processes which tend to not support as much severe weather. Cannot rule out a large hail or damaging wind gust with any storms (it is mid April), but think the overall severe threat will be lower compared to the heavy rainfall and flash flood threat.

[Ralph's Weather]

Had about 2/3" overnight from a patch that just would not budge for hours.

[JDawg512]

Just over 2 and 3/4s at my place. The rain really dumped at a high rate of speed for awhile there.

[Ntxw]

Still on tap for a widespread rain event. Expect 1-3" most places, where bands and persistent rains sets up locally more. Wobble of ULL will determine. Overall good spring rains coming this weekend. Flood watches will probably go up soon for many across the state. Especially I-35 and I-45 corridor into NW Texas.

[weatherdude1108]

Longer than usual discussion from the EWX office, trying to breakdown the upcoming rain event.

FXUS64 KEWX 141955
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AFTER A MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL IN THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
STILL THINK SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...
GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS WHICH SAW FOG THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR
TOMORROW...AFTER POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE 60S WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BY SATURDAY...A
VERY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION OF
THE CONUS...BUT WILL BE MOVING AT A SLOW RATE OF SPEED. AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH
A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST TO BARELY MOVE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT TUESDAY. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW VERY RICH MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION...PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN. PW VALUES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 1.8
INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS ABOVE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.

WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM THIS POSSIBLE EVENT AND WE
WILL TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN ON HOW WE EXPECT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
EVENT TO OCCUR. ON SATURDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UNDER THE CAP. MODELS ARE PROGGING LOW AMOUNTS OF QPF
AND THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
CAP...BUT WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE IF ANY UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

ON SUNDAY...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN. IN THE MORNING HOURS THIS TROUGH
SHOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS BUT SHOULD
MOVE EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE HILL COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT OUR FIRST POSSIBLE ROUND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 30-35
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL
LIKELY LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LIFT AS PARCELS ARE LIFTED UP THE
ESCARPMENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON
SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE BUT SHOULD
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HIGHLIGHTING THIS AREA WITH ANOTHER MAXIMA OF QPF AS PW VALUES
RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. LIFT WILL STILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTED EAST. BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...FINALLY
STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW.

TO SUMMARIZE...THERE WILL BE TWO POSSIBLE EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN.
THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND THE SECOND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF I-35.
THESE EXPECTED AREAS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND THESE AREAS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE
SYSTEM TRACK EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTED STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE EVENT WILL AVERAGE 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
6-8 INCH TOTALS. THESE AGAIN ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD INCREASE OR DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA IN THE
COMPUTER MODELS AND NOT ON MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH ARE STILL NOT
KNOWN. THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD ALSO INCREASE OR DECREASE
THE RAIN AMOUNTS.

REGARDING SEVERE CHANCES...CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1500 - 2500
J/KG THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. GIVEN THIS CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LONG AND SKINNY CAPES WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND NOT A LOT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. WITH THE CAPE PROFILE...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE
THE MAIN THREAT. 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 200-300
WHICH COULD ALSO POSE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT BUT THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY TIED TO MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE STILL UNKNOWN.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

[Shoshana]

Rain with thunder and lightning around here. Dog freaking out panting and drooling as I type this. She has never liked storms, but i swear she is getting worse about them as she gets older.

Have you tried a Thundershirt? It helped our dog. She is not needing it any more, she suddenly stopped being scared of storms. Now she is scared of the toaster!

Anyway, had a lot of lightning and rain here - the rain gauge had 2.11" in it this morning.

I have heard of it. The vet mentioned it. Does PetsMart have it? There is one down the street from me. I may go look at lunch. I'll try anything at this point. My wife and I both had to wear earplugs, because her panting was louder than the thunder.lol

2.11? Awesome! We got 0.85. My boss got over 3 inches. He lives near Zilker. That is consistent with what the LCRA gauges reported. More in south Austin than north Austin this go around. It may be a wet weekend. The lakes are benefitting! They may flood if we get too much.

I saw where they said they might have to open floodgates!

We're up near P'ville and we seem to get a lot of rain.

The Thundershirt is available at PetSmart and PetCo. Measure your dog around the chest, that is the most important measurement. It needs to be snug. if your dog is ok with wearing stuff she should tolerate it. Put it on before the storm, before the anxiety really kicks in. And at least for us, we noticed it made our dog warm so we made sure the house was cool and never had her wear it in her crate.

Good luck!

[weatherdude1108]

Have you tried a Thundershirt? It helped our dog. She is not needing it any more, she suddenly stopped being scared of storms. Now she is scared of the toaster!

Anyway, had a lot of lightning and rain here - the rain gauge had 2.11" in it this morning.

I have heard of it. The vet mentioned it. Does PetsMart have it? There is one down the street from me. I may go look at lunch. I'll try anything at this point. My wife and I both had to wear earplugs, because her panting was louder than the thunder.lol

2.11? Awesome! We got 0.85. My boss got over 3 inches. He lives near Zilker. That is consistent with what the LCRA gauges reported. More in south Austin than north Austin this go around. It may be a wet weekend. The lakes are benefitting! They may flood if we get too much.

I saw where they said they might have to open floodgates!

We're up near P'ville and we seem to get a lot of rain.

The Thundershirt is available at PetSmart and PetCo. Measure your dog around the chest, that is the most important measurement. It needs to be snug. if your dog is ok with wearing stuff she should tolerate it. Put it on before the storm, before the anxiety really kicks in. And at least for us, we noticed it made our dog warm so we made sure the house was cool and never had her wear it in her crate.

Good luck!

Open floodgates? Really? Been years since they had to do that on Travis, especially Buchanan.

I bought a thundershirt today at Petsmart. I showed pic of dog to store clerk. He suggested medium size. So I got it. Looking forward to Saturday or Sunday to put on her to see how it works. Thanks!

[Shoshana]

Open floodgates? Really? Been years since they had to do that on Travis, especially Buchanan.

I bought a thundershirt today at Petsmart. I showed pic of dog to store clerk. He suggested medium size. So I got it. Looking forward to Saturday or Sunday to put on her to see how it works. Thanks!

Tried to find where I read about floodgates, think I saw it on the news. LCRA says probably not tho, so I bet someone was hoping....

Try the Thundershirt on her when she is calm. It's not hard to put on, but there is a learning curve. My dog, when scared, curled into a ball so I had to make her stand up while I wrapped her up in it! And contrary to directions I had to fasten the part around the front, then do up the part that encloses the chest/belly then readjust the front.

[Darvince]

[weatherdude1108]

Open floodgates? Really? Been years since they had to do that on Travis, especially Buchanan.

I bought a thundershirt today at Petsmart. I showed pic of dog to store clerk. He suggested medium size. So I got it. Looking forward to Saturday or Sunday to put on her to see how it works. Thanks!

Tried to find where I read about floodgates, think I saw it on the news. LCRA says probably not tho, so I bet someone was hoping....

Try the Thundershirt on her when she is calm. It's not hard to put on, but there is a learning curve. My dog, when scared, curled into a ball so I had to make her stand up while I wrapped her up in it! And contrary to directions I had to fasten the part around the front, then do up the part that encloses the chest/belly then readjust the front.

She panted last night, for no apparent reason(?). No thunder or noises. So I took her outside to see if that helped. Didn't. So I put shirt on her last night. Had to figure out the velcro and how it fit. Not sure I put on correctly, but she stopped panting within 15 minutes.

[gboudx]

Morning update from jeff:

***Major storm system to impact TX Saturday-Tuesday***

***Significant rainfall, flash flooding, river flooding, severe weather increasingly likely***

Discussion:
Developing upper level storm system currently over the NW Rockies will drift southward into the SW US while increasing in intensity. Sub-tropical jet stream is clearly seen arcing through MX this morning and the position of the upper level system by late Saturday over NM will place much of TX in a highly favorable divergent upper air pattern. Moisture will begin to increase from the Gulf of Mexico today out west and in across SE TX on Saturday. Models are coming into fairly good agreement on a period of sustained lift from late Sunday into much of Monday and even Tuesday as the very slow moving upper level storm drifts across TX. Also starting to see better indications of a stalled surface trough or even frontal boundary in the mix which will really help to focus the rainfall. Moisture levels by late Sunday at near climo maximums for this time of year with PWS pushing 2.0 inches. This combined with the strong dynamics aloft and hour after hour of sustained lift is very concerning for the potential for prolonged cell training of excessive rainfall.

Can’t rule out fast moving S to N showers on Saturday, but think much of the day will be mostly cloudy and breezy as moisture increases. Strong short wave rotating around the upper level system into the Big Bend region Saturday evening and into C TX early Sunday looks like the trigger to set things off to our west that then slowly move into our area on Sunday. Would not be surprised to see this slowed down a little more with such a slow moving storm system

Rainfall:
Starting to feel more confident in widespread big totals across not only SE TX, but much of C and N TX. Will broadbrush amounts of 3-5 inches widespread across nearly all of C, N, and E TX with several locations of isolated totals greater than 6-8 inches. Really hard to attempt to pin point that upper bound with such a favorable set up and prolonged event. Would not at all be surprised for a few isolated locations to see 12 inches or more of rainfall. QPF “bullseye” has shifted more SE into SE TX over the last 24 hrs and this trend is concerning. Where any training establishes is where some really big totals will be likely along with a significant flash flood threat. Think the greatest threat period will be late Sunday afternoon-Tuesday for SE TX.

Hydro:
Widespread prolonged nature of the event with large areas of high QPF is very worrying for area rivers which are still in recovery from the early March rains. Flood control lakes are in the process of evacuating their remaining flood pools, but there is a large amount of above normal water within many of the river systems over eastern TX and most are running well above base flow. Grounds are not soggy, but they are not dry which will only add to the run-off. Think all river basins over SE TX from the Guadalupe to the SW to the Sabine in the east are in play with this event and current forecasted rainfall amounts would bring many likely to or above flood stage. Based on current QPF patterns I am getting very worried about the Brazos and Navasota Basins with nearly 5-7 inches of QPF across almost the entire basins over a 2-4 day period. That is a tremendous amount of water to be forced on those systems.

Severe:
Starting to see a few more parameters for severe weather Sunday-Monday with better instability. Think main threats will be damaging wind gusts with hail and tornadoes secondary. This still does not look like a big severe weather event, but can’t rule out small scale bow echoes or wind damage along any organized convective system coming out of C TX. The flash flood threat continues to be the primary threat.