
Texas Spring 2016
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2016

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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
EWX mentions areas that could pick up several inches of rain this weekend. My front yard has cracks in it as I am not watering (sprinkler valve broken and offline). Ground got so used to being wet, then the drying winds over the past week or so, along with growing vegetation have dried out the surface. Still moist in the subsoil when I was digging out weeds.
FXUS64 KEWX 112015
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THIS AFTERNOON'S LOW END CHANCES OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY
THE INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM LIKELIHOOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE DRY LINE HAS MANAGED TO SHIFT INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON MARKED WITH NW WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO MID TO
UPPER 40S. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S BUT CLOUD COVER HAS THUS FAR TEMPERED
TEMPERATURES AND THUS OVERALL INSTABILITY. THAT STATED...LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EAST
OF I-35 WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS 1500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH -25
TO -50 J/KG MLCIN PRESENT. VIS SAT SUGGESTS CUMULUS CLOUDS LOOKING
SLIGHTLY MORE AGITATED AND AN UNPICK IN SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE LAPSE
RATES ARE NEAR 7.5C THE GREATER FORCING IS FARTHER NORTH INTO
NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST BUT SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT THE DRY LINE WILL
HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA AND WAIT FOR MORE FORCING TO HELP BECOME A
FOCUS FOR MORE RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY
DEPICTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA MEXICO THAT WILL SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IN 24-36 HOURS. WITH PWATS REMAINING IN THE
1.4-15" RANGE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG PROGGED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUGGEST SURFACE BASED PARCELS BEING LIFTED BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS
HOLD TO GREATER LOW LVL MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING. OVERALL, THE
SET-UP WOULD TEND TO A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THAT OCCURS ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING (WHICH LOOKS
FAIRLY ADEQUATE) A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND
POCKETS OF WIND CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOW THE CAP AND BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLVE
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR EXTRA STORM POTENCY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES
LOWERING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE THE POSSIBLE TO LIKELY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND UPSTREAM OF A DEEP EQUATORWARD DIVING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONUS. PWATS WILL RECOVER TO 1.6 TO 1.7
INCHES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE STRONG FORCING THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE HILL COUNTRY STARTING SATURDAY. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCKING. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL TO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME BUT THERE
COULD BE AREAS THAT PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND TIME
FRAME. IT IS ENCOURAGED TO STAY ALERT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
FXUS64 KEWX 112015
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THIS AFTERNOON'S LOW END CHANCES OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY
THE INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM LIKELIHOOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE DRY LINE HAS MANAGED TO SHIFT INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON MARKED WITH NW WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO MID TO
UPPER 40S. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S BUT CLOUD COVER HAS THUS FAR TEMPERED
TEMPERATURES AND THUS OVERALL INSTABILITY. THAT STATED...LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EAST
OF I-35 WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS 1500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH -25
TO -50 J/KG MLCIN PRESENT. VIS SAT SUGGESTS CUMULUS CLOUDS LOOKING
SLIGHTLY MORE AGITATED AND AN UNPICK IN SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE LAPSE
RATES ARE NEAR 7.5C THE GREATER FORCING IS FARTHER NORTH INTO
NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST BUT SHOULD STAY SUB SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT THE DRY LINE WILL
HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA AND WAIT FOR MORE FORCING TO HELP BECOME A
FOCUS FOR MORE RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY
DEPICTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA MEXICO THAT WILL SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IN 24-36 HOURS. WITH PWATS REMAINING IN THE
1.4-15" RANGE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG PROGGED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUGGEST SURFACE BASED PARCELS BEING LIFTED BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS
HOLD TO GREATER LOW LVL MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING. OVERALL, THE
SET-UP WOULD TEND TO A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THAT OCCURS ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING (WHICH LOOKS
FAIRLY ADEQUATE) A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND
POCKETS OF WIND CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOW THE CAP AND BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLVE
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR EXTRA STORM POTENCY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES
LOWERING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHT WILL
BE THE POSSIBLE TO LIKELY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND UPSTREAM OF A DEEP EQUATORWARD DIVING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONUS. PWATS WILL RECOVER TO 1.6 TO 1.7
INCHES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE STRONG FORCING THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE HILL COUNTRY STARTING SATURDAY. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCKING. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL TO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME BUT THERE
COULD BE AREAS THAT PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND TIME
FRAME. IT IS ENCOURAGED TO STAY ALERT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
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- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Storm approaching Greenville appears to be developing a hook appendage...
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
What is that small rolling line moving south over Denton on the NWS radar? Outflow?
How will that play with the weather later on?
How will that play with the weather later on?
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Spring 2016
HockeyTx82 wrote:What is that small rolling line moving south over Denton on the NWS radar? Outflow?
How will that play with the weather later on?
Its outflow from thunderstorms that moved along the Red River earlier. The storms to the NW are moving along that boundary as its sagging south. So far the dryline has done little
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
Storm near Alvord is really looking bad on various radar scans. Surprised there hasn't been a wall cloud sighting yet.
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- Texas Snowman
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- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2016
@DavidFinfrock - Baseball size hail likely around the Sunset area & Hwy 287 near sunset was closed due to so much hail. #dfwwx #txwx
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- Texas Snowman
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- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Storm even has the attention of the great James Spann:
@spann - Very dangerous storm will pass north of Decatur, TX #txwx
@spann - Very dangerous storm will pass north of Decatur, TX #txwx
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- Texas Snowman
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- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2016
@wfaaweather - Storm passing through Sunset is capable of producing very large hail! Radar estimates hail the size of hockey pucks!
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Texas Snowman wrote:Storm near Alvord is really looking bad on various radar scans. Surprised there hasn't been a wall cloud sighting yet.
It's had strong rotation pretty consistently.
Last edited by EF-5bigj on Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
It looks like another storm is trying to form along Highway 380 between Jacksboro and Decatur that will need to be watched. That storm north of Decatur is a beast...
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
Major damage in the southern part of Texarkana today, nothing in my immediate vicinity. However, my uncle who lives on south state line had major damage to his barn and quite a few trees blown down on his property. Channel 3 just reported on their on air news cast that winds in Texarkana were 85-90 mph in the southern part of the city earlier today. Below is a snippet from the channel 3 web site:
Storm Damages Texarkana Area
The strong winds and heavy rains knocked out power and caused some major property damage in Texarkana. On South Stateline Avenue, a tree crushed a truck and lifted another one off the ground. The strong winds also blew down power lines and sent trees through houses. Employees at Landmark Grocery are working to restore power after a tree damaged the store.
Storm Damages Texarkana Area
The strong winds and heavy rains knocked out power and caused some major property damage in Texarkana. On South Stateline Avenue, a tree crushed a truck and lifted another one off the ground. The strong winds also blew down power lines and sent trees through houses. Employees at Landmark Grocery are working to restore power after a tree damaged the store.
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
Got a question on all these hail storms and their effect on solar panels. I'm guessing they're not well protected? While it would be bad enough on a home system, what about the large utility operated fields where they may have thousands of panels?
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- gboudx
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
It was horrible here in northern Rockwall. Before the rain hit, dust was blowing in and was rotating up to cloud level. I tried to get video but ran to help my neighbor pick up their trash cans. Looks like hail got baseball size.


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Re: Texas Spring 2016
That's some big hail. Storm reflectivity was highest right around S/SE collin county to Rockwall county.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
Looks like the Dallas area storm has been just behind the outflow boundary, keeping it a little bit elevated. However, as I'm sure some people know first-hand, an elevated mesocyclone with CAPE like today can still produce some big time hail.
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
WeatherGuesser wrote:Got a question on all these hail storms and their effect on solar panels. I'm guessing they're not well protected? While it would be bad enough on a home system, what about the large utility operated fields where they may have thousands of panels?
I'm pretty sure it would cause extensive damage to a commercial system. Though I haven't heard of one being effected. Hail cores are actually very small and only a small amount of the population actually experience such large stones. The odds of a solar plant being hit by big enough hail is very small. Though a few years ago I went through a few storms and one of my neighbor's solar roof actually did not get very much damage compared to the rest of us.
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Re: Texas Spring 2016
Holy crap we just got blasted. I was at work and my back car window is smashed ugh... work flooded again(the Walmart in Wylie). Many many cars were likely totaled in the parking lot.
That was the longest hailstorm EVER. 3 weeks ago was nothing next to that...
That was the longest hailstorm EVER. 3 weeks ago was nothing next to that...
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Spring 2016
Brent wrote:Holy crap we just got blasted. I was at work and my back car window is smashed ugh... work flooded again(the Walmart in Wylie). Many many cars were likely totaled in the parking lot.
That was the longest hailstorm EVER. 3 weeks ago was nothing next to that...
I would take a very close look at your car. The window is probably the cheapest part to fix.
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