Texas Spring 2016

[Brent]

The pattern soon will switch to wet mode. During the spring time a trough in the SW usually opens up the skies for us from the EPAC

Both the GFS and Euro are starting to agree on a wetter pattern next week, and the GFS is just a parade of storms in the LR. Enjoy the sunshine now.

[Ntxw]

The pattern soon will switch to wet mode. During the spring time a trough in the SW usually opens up the skies for us from the EPAC

Both the GFS and Euro are starting to agree on a wetter pattern next week, and the GFS is just a parade of storms in the LR. Enjoy the sunshine now.

Kind of reminds me of the 2007 change from the hot, paltry March to the slow shift in late April that went straight through summer. Hoping for a repeat! Much hotter to the east and north of here, which is what the summer heat core is looking to shape up to be.

[Ntxw]

Also for fun, looking out way way way far from CanSips. This is classic La Nina. Bitter cold Canada and warm southeast ridge, and opposite El Nino the very strong extended Aleutian ridge which will warm up the GOA. IF that ridge extends into the EPO region then we'll likely get that signature La Nina cold blast if we can open the gates. All speculation though Some memorable first year La Nina singular blast (but not limited to) Feb 1989, Jan-Feb 1996, Feb 2011

[TheProfessor]

The pattern soon will switch to wet mode. During the spring time a trough in the SW usually opens up the skies for us from the EPAC

Both the GFS and Euro are starting to agree on a wetter pattern next week, and the GFS is just a parade of storms in the LR. Enjoy the sunshine now.

Kind of reminds me of the 2007 change from the hot, paltry March to the slow shift in late April that went straight through summer. Hoping for a repeat! Much hotter to the east and north of here, which is what the summer heat core is looking to shape up to be.

The beginning of April here has been similar to 2007, we might get an inch or 2 of snow later this week. I just hope there isn't a repeat of early May 2007 in the plains.

[Ntxw]

The beginning of April here has been similar to 2007, we might get an inch or 2 of snow later this week. I just hope there isn't a repeat of early May 2007 in the plains.

Greensburg Tornado, the first EF-5 classified under the new scale

[wxman57]

Didn't know where to post this, so I'll just mention it here. Just read an article about a new model in the works - the Panasonic (TV people) model. They based it on the GFS but are incorporating quite a bit of data from airplanes. There are other mods over the current GFS as well. The claim is that it's now beating the ECMWF. Don't know if it will be made public any time in the future (or ever). I'm sure they're developing it with the intention of making $$$$ by selling the data.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/04/tv-maker-panasonic-says-it-has-developed-the-worlds-best-weather-model/

[Tireman4]

And your opinion sir?

[Ntxw]

I was going back through some ocean reanalysis and it looks like this Nina could be a unique special one. Very few are accompanied by strong +PDO to start the year. The Nina's of the past 20 years all started with neutral to negative PDO. You have to go back to the 80s, which the Nina's then had memorable cold events. The magic values is between -0.5 to -1C. If we can stay within that range I think it's possible next winter could be fantastic. You get just enough Nina to glacier Canada but not so strong as to dry up our storm track and prevent the southeast ridge from backing. 1983-1984 and 1984-1985 fall under this category as well as 1995-1996. All featured at least one bitter cold month.

[TheProfessor]

I was going back through some ocean reanalysis and it looks like this Nina could be a unique special one. Very few are accompanied by strong +PDO to start the year. The Nina's of the past 20 years all started with neutral to negative PDO. You have to go back to the 80s, which the Nina's then had memorable cold events. The magic values is between -0.5 to -1C. If we can stay within that range I think it's possible next winter could be fantastic. You get just enough Nina to glacier Canada but not so strong as to dry up our storm track and prevent the southeast ridge from backing. 1983-1984 and 1984-1985 fall under this category as well as 1995-1996. All featured at least one bitter cold month.

Just looked up the winter of 1985 and the first thing that came up was a record cold wave that dropped temperatures to -18 here in Columbus. Knoxville Tennessee recorded -25 degrees

[JDawg512]

The one event that pops into my head when it comes to tonadoes and El Niño/La Niña is the 1997 Jarrel F5, Cedar Park F3 and Lake Travis F4 tornadoes. 97 was of course the Super El Niño.

Having said that, there were some unusual factors that came into play that day. It may have simply been a unique storm whether the Super El Niño played a part or not.

[Ntxw]

Encouraging from the WPC. Also the southwest is on target from the CPC for much above normal precipitation, perhaps extended we will join that forecast after they get hit first. California is still in soil drought but their lakes and rivers are doing much better now.

[Brent]

I was going back through some ocean reanalysis and it looks like this Nina could be a unique special one. Very few are accompanied by strong +PDO to start the year. The Nina's of the past 20 years all started with neutral to negative PDO. You have to go back to the 80s, which the Nina's then had memorable cold events. The magic values is between -0.5 to -1C. If we can stay within that range I think it's possible next winter could be fantastic. You get just enough Nina to glacier Canada but not so strong as to dry up our storm track and prevent the southeast ridge from backing. 1983-1984 and 1984-1985 fall under this category as well as 1995-1996. All featured at least one bitter cold month.

Just looked up the winter of 1985 and the first thing that came up was a record cold wave that dropped temperatures to -18 here in Columbus. Knoxville Tennessee recorded -25 degrees

that was a legendary cold snap... the queen mother east of here other than 1899. It was so cold in DC the inauguration was moved indoors. Even down in AL/GA according to the records(I wasn't alive then), there was wind chills below zero at mid afternoon.

[aggiecutter]

Freebie from Weatherbell:

[JDawg512]

Freebie from Weatherbell:

We will be bone dry if the greatest chance of landfalling hurricanes is the northern gulf coast. We always end up very dry for long periods of time after those types of situations. The stronger the hurricane, the drier and more subsident our atmosphere will be.

[wxman57]

And your opinion sir?

Judging by what I read in the article in reference to their methodology, I'd say it has a good chance of being much better than the current GFS and possibly on par or slightly better than the ECMWF. I suspect that the model will be run twice daily (they didn't say). I also suspect it won't be freely available to the public.

[weatherdude1108]

Freebie from Weatherbell:

We will be bone dry if the greatest chance of landfalling hurricanes is the northern gulf coast. We always end up very dry for long periods of time after those types of situations. The stronger the hurricane, the drier and more subsident our atmosphere will be.

I was thinking the same thing if that happens. September 2011 comes to mind (Bastrop fires). What an awful year 2011 was!

[Ntxw]

Thats unusual of wxbell and JB. His analogs (nino to nina) have the most ACE generated in the open Atlantic via recurves. Its Nina climo

[Tireman4]

And your opinion sir?

Judging by what I read in the article in reference to their methodology, I'd say it has a good chance of being much better than the current GFS and possibly on par or slightly better than the ECMWF. I suspect that the model will be run twice daily (they didn't say). I also suspect it won't be freely available to the public.

Geez...it has to better than the long range GFS was during the Winter. Right above clueless it was....sad...and this was after the upgrade, right?

[Brent]

No 2011 analogs allowed.

Oh and here's a surprise... models trending drier next week. GFS still has the wet pattern beyond a week but it's the GFS...

[Ntxw]

2011 esque summers comes around about once per decade (1980/1999/2006/2011) so we aren't due for awhile