Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[crownweather]

Maybe 2016 may look like the 1985 season when only two systems formed east of 50W and there were 11 named storms?

Definitely interesting to see 1985 mentioned. Very quiet Caribbean that year with a majority of systems forming west of 60 West Longitude and north of 20 North Latitude. The exception was Gloria. On a personal note, Gloria was the first hurricane I have experienced first hand here in New England. Brought down a tree on our home which was a big deal for a 11 year old kid! Been interested in hurricanes ever since!

There is a great Youtube video highlighting the entire 1985 hurricane season with news clips. It is in 13 parts but is well worth it. Hard to believe that was a season with only 11 named storms given a majority of them made landfall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZturdeRpUg

[cycloneye]

The latest tweet from Dr Klotzbach about the cold North Atlantic.

@philklotzbach · 4m4 minutes ago 

North Atlantic SST component of AMO index tied with 2015 for coldest March on record (since '50). Colder Mar was '95

[Blown Away]

The latest tweet from Dr Klotzbach about the cold North Atlantic.

@philklotzbach · 4m4 minutes ago 

North Atlantic SST component of AMO index tied with 2015 for coldest March on record (since '50). Colder Mar was '95

1995 Map

[SFLcane]

Um.... not a bad look.

[WeatherEmperor]

The thing that many believe will be bad is that warm batch of waters north of the equator and below 20n in the Epac. This map does not go far enough west but these warm waters extend further out into the Epac. If this is true, it could mean ripping wind shear for at least the Caribbean and maybe even portions of the Atlantic. A few pro mets on here mentioned this a few times already. Just curious what your thoughts on this are.

Um.... not a bad look.

[Alyono]

that would keep the MDR including the Caribbean portion, dead

[xcool22]

very interesting

[cycloneye]

Dr Phil Klotzbach analogs to match the current North Atlantic cold ssts. This may be part of CSU April 14 forecast.

@philklotzbach · 19m19 minutes ago 

5 best analogs to current N Atlantic SSTs: 1975, 1986, 1991, 2014 & 2015. Average ACE of these yrs was 60% of normal

[xcool22]

so 2016 going be More active season than last year ?

[TheStormExpert]

By the looks and sounds of things from the experts, pros, etc. it looks like we may be in for another below average season, maybe similar to the last two or three?

[WPBWeather]

I don't think that's what any "expert" is saying. It looks average or more to some.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: I don't think that's what any "expert" is saying. It looks average or more to some.

Many experts seem to viewing this upcoming season as being one of the more challenging seasons to forecast.

2013 was the last real difficult season to forecast, BUT most experts, etc. went with the idea and assumption that we would continue to see high levels of activity like with the previous three seasons(2010, 2011, and 2012). In reality we were left with a so-called dud season that surprised most forecasters.

I feel like this upcoming season has many factors going towards it that COULD favor a similar season to that of 2013. That along with the fact that I believe we are out of the active period of (1995-2012).

[gatorcane]

Are we putting too much weight into colder than normal waters in the North Atlantic and warmer than normal waters off the Mexican coast north of the equator? Look at what things looked like in 2004 at the end of August when the MDR train setup spawning multiple system beginning with Frances on Aug 25th?

[Alyono]

looks to be close to NORMAL in the EPAC MDR in that photo. Within .5C of the mean

[SFLcane]

Let's just compare 2015-2016 at this time across MDR. Much warmer this go around

[WPBWeather]

Dud season? Probably not. Hard to forecast? Yes! Disturbing early signs? Yes. Should we worry?

[Ntxw]

2013 was the last real difficult season to forecast, BUT most experts, etc. went with the idea and assumption that we would continue to see high levels of activity like with the previous three seasons(2010, 2011, and 2012). In reality we were left with a so-called dud season that surprised most forecasters.

I feel like this upcoming season has many factors going towards it that COULD favor a similar season to that of 2013. That along with the fact that I believe we are out of the active period of (1995-2012).

One big difference from 2013 though is that this is likely going into a good La Nina. Nina's generally are favorable for the Atlantic even with a bad background state. 2013 was neutral and I remember the idea of 2005 comparison kept popping up because it was the first "neutral" year basically since 2005. It's a tricky forecast, but there is more leg than 2013 did.

[Darvince]

I'd say that starting within especially the last 5 years or so we can ignore the north Atlantic as one of the main effects of global warming is the cooling of the north Atlantic. So even despite that, we could still have any type of season, as the unwillingness of the MDR to coöperate with a true -AMO shows. So I agree with gatorcane that we are putting too much weight on the cold waters in the north Atlantic. I don't know whether we are for the EPAC, but to me it only seems mildly warm, no season buster.

[wxman57]

The ECMWF April forecast may be about to be released. I notice that all the links to the extended forecast charts on their website are dead.

[SFLcane]

The ECMWF April forecast may be about to be released. I notice that all the links to the extended forecast charts on their website are dead.

Please post when released 57.