2016 WPAC Season

[1900hurricane]

Much better, thanks.

[euro6208]

Celebrating Christmas and the New Year is one thing that separates billions of people from the awareness of the upcoming brand new season. It's family first and the holiday then comes the typhoon season.

New Year is just 1 day while a Typhoon season is year round...

Nonstop...

[euro6208]

Today marks the beginning of the 2016 typhoon season.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!

[euro6208]

Models don't develop anything for the rest of the month.

The 3 year streak of having a January classified system that began in 2013 and worldwide record of 19 straight months of TC activity that began in June 2014 likely will be snapped despite the ongoing nino. (Going to stop there, it gets crazier before 2014)

Before that and since 2000, only 2001, 2005 and 2008 had January systems.

[dexterlabio]

Won't be surprised if the first named storm this season will come by July.. especially if this El Nino warmth quickly fades into La Nina.

[euro6208]

Won't be surprised if the first named storm this season will come by July.. especially if this El Nino warmth quickly fades into La Nina.

Latest GFS and EURO don't show anything in their latest runs although i would disagree with the first formation in July (same with 1998). Some models have a slower decline of el nino and continues with this nino.

[euro6208]

GFS's been hinting over the past runs of a disturbance emanating west of the dateline as it travels across Micronesia first week of March.



Maybe a sign the sleeping giant could wake up soon?

[euro6208]

Time frame keeps getting pushed further back and has something further east, west near the dateline. Previous run has it developing east of the dateline. EURO remains quiet through the 5th...

[Darvince]

Hope for Ulika possibly?

[euro6208]

No longer showing anything developing.

Not even a single disturbance on the latest EURO and GFS runs...The most active basin continues to be dead...

[cycloneye]

Already 2015 had by this date (March 14) three named systems including two Typhoons one a cat 3 but so far 2016 remains very quiet and it looks like it will continue this way at least for the next 10 days.

[wxman57]

Note that the new ECMWF seasonal forecast for the West Pac is for ACE 80% of normal, with 10 typhoons (12 is normal),

[euro6208]

Latest 00Z Euro hinting on some type of development in eastern Micronesia. Last 2 runs also has something similiar.

[euro6208]

Already 2015 had by this date (March 14) three named systems including two Typhoons one a cat 3 but so far 2016 remains very quiet and it looks like it will continue this way at least for the next 10 days.

Indeed.

2015...

1 Typhoon-1 MEKKHALA 13-18 JAN 70 1
2 Typhoon-3 HIGOS 07-11 FEB 105 3
3 Tropical Storm BAVI 11-18 MAR 50 -
4 Super Typhoon-5 MAYSAK 27 MAR-05 APR 140 5
5 Tropical Storm HAISHEN 03-06 APR 45 -

2016...

NONE...

Last time it was this quiet was back in 2011 when the first storm developed in first week of April...

Going back to 1995, only 1998 which came off after a super nino year like 2015 had the first storm occurred so late..in July...

Slow season but Cat 5's are coming? Yes...

Since 1995, years that had it's first system in April or afterwards (about 5 years) guarantees at least 1-3 monster Category 5's roaming the area and the Philippines and Asia are at greatest risk from these prowling cyclones...

[euro6208]

Still no development in the latest EURO and GFS runs...

[cycloneye]

Seasons after strong El Ninos have started late and were with plenty of Typhoons and some SuperTyphoons.Also they were more closer to land to develop and had many landfalls.

1983:



1998:

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the data about the season when the first named storm formed on the latest date?

[1900hurricane]

Does anyone has the data about the season when the first named storm formed on the latest date?

That would be the earlier mentioned 1998, when Tropical Storm Nicole developed on July 8th. Here is the Wiki page for that season.

[dexterlabio]

If this El Nino does swing rapidly into a Nina a la 1998/2010, I can imagine WPAC having at most 17-19 named storms... or that could be generous..


Slow seasons in the WPAC aren't exactly that "slow" if you think about it. 2010 and 2011 are very inactive seasons but you can still name 1 or 2 storms that had gotten so intense (and impactful) that you couldn't really say "season cancel."

[euro6208]

If this El Nino does swing rapidly into a Nina a la 1998/2010, I can imagine WPAC having at most 17-19 named storms... or that could be generous..


Slow seasons in the WPAC aren't exactly that "slow" if you think about it. 2010 and 2011 are very inactive seasons but you can still name 1 or 2 storms that had gotten so intense (and impactful) that you couldn't really say "season cancel."

Indeed years after an el nino usually features more systems developing near land due to the cold waters near the dateline...The Marianas especially the Philippines and Asia are going to feel the true brunt of this...

Latest models support this with very warm waters displaced west, south, and southeast of the Marianas due to a developing Nino.