Amateur hurricane forecasts for 2016

[Hurricaneman]

We have already had Alex back in Junuary but what will the true hurricane season bring us. Well we only have clues as to what it may look like but still no definates so here goes nothing

SSTAs: looks like the Tropical Atlantic will be above normal with the MDR also being above normal which looks like the AMO has gone more to the positive side which adds more fuel to the fire so to speak and don't be surprised if more Cape Verde activity happens due to this

Indian Ocean: Its well above normal Anomalies will probably cause more potent tropical waves and honestly a tropical wave train like 2004 could happen with that added moisture from the Indian Ocean

ENSO: seems to be heading towards a La Nina and this is also a positive for the hurricane season due to less shear

SW of the Baja: this could be a major player and as it is right now could neither be a helper or a hinderance but what the models are saying is that that small area of negative anomalies goes back to positive which could induce shear across the basin negating the effects of La Nina

PDO: Looks to remain positive through the 2016 hurricane season causing the jet stream pattern to dig into the Gulf instead of off the east coast which if theres a system watch out

Steering pattern: Based on what I expect There could be some trouble in the Gulf as I expect the mean trough position to be around 85W which is not a good position if you want few landfalls

my numbers based on what I see are 12\5\2

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CaliforniaResident]

I'm calling for the most active season since 2005 including several U.S. landfalls.
24/16/8

[ninel conde]

14/9/4

[cycloneye]

Don't forget to participate in our annual Storm2k poll that begins on April 1rst.

[CFLHurricane]

Seeing how active last season was despite a super duper El Niño, this year should be appreciably more robust then recent seasons considering the La Niña and increased atmospheric moisture.

I'm saving my prediction for the poll though

[vbhoutex]

I'm calling for the most active season since 2005 including several U.S. landfalls.
24/16/8

Curious as to why you think the numbers will be this high. What is your thought process to come up with these?

[vbhoutex]

At this point I am expecting a more "NORMAL" season numbers wise with my VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS being at 13/6/4. I reserve the right to CHANGE my numbers at any time!! Watching several factors but if current trends continue those may have to be raised a little.

[CaliforniaResident]

I'm calling for the most active season since 2005 including several U.S. landfalls.
24/16/8

Curious as to why you think the numbers will be this high. What is your thought process to come up with these?

Just a hunch with the upcoming La Nina and the fact that "Hurricane Alley" has been incredibly lucky over the past 10 years. You guys are long overdue.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm calling for the most active season since 2005 including several U.S. landfalls.
24/16/8

Curious as to why you think the numbers will be this high. What is your thought process to come up with these?

Just a hunch with the upcoming La Nina and the fact that "Hurricane Alley" has been incredibly lucky over the past 10 years. You guys are long overdue.

YES we are overdue! But, the odds of a 2005 season repeat or something quite similar are slim to none especially during our lifetime.

Also, just because places such as Florida are overdue for a hurricane hit of some sort and intensity doesn't mean Mother Nature will just unleash her fury on us in just one season.

[Darvince]

Seasons with similar power to 2005 happened in 1933 and 1887, so yeah I would say it's about a once in a lifetime opportunity.

[Ntxw]

Years like 2005 tends to build up with prior years being really active as well. Not to say mother nature can't clamp down with a spectacular season among inactive ones. We can only go by statistics from history as a guidance. The atmosphere doesn't have a memory, it doesn't remember what happened last year or the year before or any year before that. It's constant flow acting and reacting to what is going on at the present towards a balance. Otherwise Florida and the US would not have been given so much good fortune for as long as it has. Each season is a clean slate.

[TheStormExpert]

Years like 2005 tends to build up with prior years being really active as well. Not to say mother nature can't clamp down with a spectacular season among inactive ones. We can only go by statistics from history as a guidance. The atmosphere doesn't have a memory, it doesn't remember what happened last year or the year before or any year before that. It's constant flow acting and reacting to what is going on at the present towards a balance. Otherwise Florida and the US would not have been given so much good fortune for as long as it has. Each season is a clean slate.

Well IMO if it wasn't for the Strong El Niño creating such a hostile Caribbean with lashing wind shear(which killed several of the storms last season) last season Erika could have been a game changing storm or hurricane for Florida.

Once again Florida lucked out and Erika dissipated in the North-Central Caribbean due to relentless shear.

Is this a sign of things to come concerning possible threats to Florida in the coming seasons? It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict such a thing but one has to wonder if the steering pattern in the coming season(s) could allow for more threats coming at Florida.

[J_J99]

Hey I am brand new here and have been lurking since the last Hurricane Season

La Nina/Neutral La Nina by July and if that blob of warm water off the coast of Baja cools down, I expect a dangerous hurricane season. US and Carribean need to watch out..... that heat content and SSTs are already astronomical and if the wind shear drops... man... Gulf Coast needs to watch out this year.

Without warm blob
17/7/5

With Warm Blob
14/3/2

I have been a watcher of Weather ever since I was a little kid. I am pretty young compared to most of you, I was born in October 1999. I first started watching the Weather Channel in 2004 and watched it all day. I remember 2005,2008,2010,2011 and 2012 very well. My area actually got struck by the remnants of Hurricane Ike in 2008 which caused us to lose power for five days. I am glad I joined.

[Alyono]

I said it in another thread, stop looking at or SW of the Baja. How is warm water by the Baja going to affect the deep tropics?

Look at the area between 10 and 20N EAST of the Baja

[Alyono]

Years like 2005 tends to build up with prior years being really active as well. Not to say mother nature can't clamp down with a spectacular season among inactive ones. We can only go by statistics from history as a guidance. The atmosphere doesn't have a memory, it doesn't remember what happened last year or the year before or any year before that. It's constant flow acting and reacting to what is going on at the present towards a balance. Otherwise Florida and the US would not have been given so much good fortune for as long as it has. Each season is a clean slate.

Well IMO if it wasn't for the Strong El Niño creating such a hostile Caribbean with lashing wind shear(which killed several of the storms last season) last season Erika could have been a game changing storm or hurricane for Florida.

Once again Florida lucked out and Erika dissipated in the North-Central Caribbean due to relentless shear.

Is this a sign of things to come concerning possible threats to Florida in the coming seasons? It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict such a thing but one has to wonder if the steering pattern in the coming season(s) could allow for more threats coming at Florida.

Forget Erika. Without the shear, Danny probably would have been a cat 5 plowing through the Caribbean

[J_J99]

I said it in another thread, stop looking at or SW of the Baja. How is warm water by the Baja going to affect the deep tropics?

Look at the area between 10 and 20N EAST of the Baja

Will do, you are probably much more knowledgeable than me. Thanks for your opinion.

[TheStormExpert]

Years like 2005 tends to build up with prior years being really active as well. Not to say mother nature can't clamp down with a spectacular season among inactive ones. We can only go by statistics from history as a guidance. The atmosphere doesn't have a memory, it doesn't remember what happened last year or the year before or any year before that. It's constant flow acting and reacting to what is going on at the present towards a balance. Otherwise Florida and the US would not have been given so much good fortune for as long as it has. Each season is a clean slate.

Well IMO if it wasn't for the Strong El Niño creating such a hostile Caribbean with lashing wind shear(which killed several of the storms last season) last season Erika could have been a game changing storm or hurricane for Florida.

Once again Florida lucked out and Erika dissipated in the North-Central Caribbean due to relentless shear.

Is this a sign of things to come concerning possible threats to Florida in the coming seasons? It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict such a thing but one has to wonder if the steering pattern in the coming season(s) could allow for more threats coming at Florida.

Forget Erika. Without the shear, Danny probably would have been a cat 5 plowing through the Caribbean

Yes Danny very well could have been a Cat. 5 going through the Caribbean, but I also believe Erika would of had a decent shot too at becoming at the very least a Cat. 1 hurricane if it wasn't for that destructive storm killing shear.

[TheAustinMan]

Hey I am brand new here and have been lurking since the last Hurricane Season
...
Without warm blob
17/7/5
With Warm Blob
14/3/2

I have been a watcher of Weather ever since I was a little kid. I am pretty young compared to most of you, I was born in October 1999. I first started watching the Weather Channel in 2004 and watched it all day. I remember 2005,2008,2010,2011 and 2012 very well. My area actually got struck by the remnants of Hurricane Ike in 2008 which caused us to lose power for five days. I am glad I joined.

Hello and welcome to the forums! Great to hear that you've been intrigued by the weather for quite some time; I hope you enjoy things here.

Anyhow, as for my personal prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season, I'm thinking of a climatologically average hurricane season, though I haven't put too much analysis into the tropical setup this year. I'm waiting until May to form solid numbers, but in other news... looks like the CFSv2 has been fixed as of 06z on March 29.

[wxman57]

Is this thread necessary? We'll have the S2K annual tropical forecast thread going shortly.

[cycloneye]

Yeah,reserve your numbers for our annual S2k poll that will begin to get the member numbers on April 1rst in the afternoon hours.