Texas Spring 2016

[Brent]

This is a heck of a way to run a "spring". Fortunately, we can't trust the GFS that far out. I'm sure the actual temps will be up into the mid 80s or higher.

It's sure been consistent with a cold snap around the 1st of April...

CPC hinting at it too

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Heat miser sure is glad its not January with this pattern in place. We knew it was coming at some point. Could be like this for a while. Whats the major diferrence? HP in the pacific in a different position?


Made it down to 39F here in Sugar Land. We had two days in a row of very heavy winds. My new weather station location is now 21 ft in the air. I have a clear shot to all sides except a west wind now with no interruption. Yesterday i had a 38 MPH gust on the station. Nice to see much more accurate data.

[Brent]

Heat miser sure is glad its not January with this pattern in place. We knew it was coming at some point.

Exactly... wxman57 had his winter... the pattern had to flip eventually.

Here's to a less hot summer.

The 12z Euro has some rain and highs in the mid 60s on Easter followed by upper 30s at DFW next Monday and Tuesday, and around 40 next Wednesday with highs in the mid/upper 50s Mon/Tue and low 60s Wed as far out as the run goes

[wxman57]

Next weekend looks a lot warmer, anyway. By tomorrow it may be warm enough for an after-work bike ride. It's nowhere CLOSE to warm enough today.

[Texas Snowman]

Hey, after all of your Heat Miser dog piling this winter, we were thinking of you today up here in North Texas. You know, as you had to endure this springtime cold snap.

Feel the love?

[Ntxw]

This severe -EPO should've shown up a month sooner for the backloaded winter!. No less it's going to give gardeners a scare. May not seem impressive cold aloft but the EPO usually drills surface cold and that's typically stingy.

Right now though the models aren't seeing 1040+ surface HP (if one does show up). If we do start seeing it though, definitely threat of late freezes. Only a handful of times has a pattern shaping up occurred early April.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Hey, after all of your Heat Miser dog piling this winter, we were thinking of you today up here in North Texas. You know, as you had to endure this springtime cold snap.

Feel the love?

https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hp ... e=56F30066

Enjoy the dying breaths of winter over the next couple of weeks. I'm stoking the furnace for a nice, hot summer.

[Ntxw]

Some guidance are really tanking the EPO. Any coincidence with the collapsing El Nino now heading for moderate territory? If only the collapse happened sooner...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yep, the heights are much further west in the Pacific now powering up an Aleutian low and not a GOA low.

[Lagreeneyes03]

This severe -EPO should've shown up a month sooner for the backloaded winter!. No less it's going to give gardeners a scare. May not seem impressive cold aloft but the EPO usually drills surface cold and that's typically stingy.

Right now though the models aren't seeing 1040+ surface HP (if one does show up). If we do start seeing it though, definitely threat of late freezes. Only a handful of times has a pattern shaping up occurred early April.

Will this kill the bluebonnets that are now starting to be in full force in NTX?

[Ntxw]

They may survive a frost or light freeze but not if it is prolonged. Some guidance are bent on a pretty impressive buckling of the east pacific oscillation. While 30s and near freeze may not seem to bad, but in early April climo thats near record lows.

[Texas Snowman]

From Steve McCauley on Facebook:

"The stage is being set across parts of north Texas for strong to severe thunderstorms that will fire Wednesday evening as an upper-level disturbance and dryline combine forces to see if they can punch their way through the cap now developing over our area.

A potent dryline will be moving into the Metroplex by Wednesday afternoon and will separate north Texas in half. To the west of the dryline, desert dry air will be pouring in from west Texas. To the east of the dryline, warm, moist air will be flowing up from the Gulf of Mexico leading to very unstable atmospheric conditions across the eastern half of north Texas.

The boundary where these two opposing air masses will collide is the dryline, and it will be moving west-to-east across the Metroplex by late in the day. Now the question becomes: Will the dryline and upper-level disturbance be strong enough to overcome and punch their way through the cap and allow severe thunderstorms to fire?

The answer appears to be YES. This is particularly likely for areas east of the I-35 Corridor. So residents across the eastern half of north Texas should be on the lookout for severe weather by Wednesday evening (after 6 PM) including the threats from hail, high winds, and tornadoes.

At this time, it does appear the cap will be breakable, so unlike last week when the cap held and prevented severe weather from happening, we may not have such luck this time.

Stay tuned ..."

[Ntxw]

Large hail would be biggest threat this evening should storms fire

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like DFW is back within the slight risk area this afternoon/evening per the latest SPC outlook. HRRR shows a broken line of strong thunderstorms forming north and west of the immediate metro area and then swinging through. NAM 4k looks similar but just a bit further east when thunderstorms start firing.

[EF-5bigj]

You think Texas will have a watch coming?

[dhweather]

Looks like a tornado watch is forthcoming.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0252.html

In Iowa, not Texas.

[EF-5bigj]

lol sorry I'll change that

[ColdFusion]

Another DFW met chiming in on facebook
News 8 Pete Delkus

Risk of severe storms includes the entire Dallas/Fort Worth area this evening! The "Cap" is weak and breakable which may lead to severe storm development after 6pm in the Metroplex and possibly earlier to the west and north of the DFW area. If storms do develop that may quickly turn severe with large hail, damaging straight line winds and even isolated tornadoes.
We'll be watching locations to the west and north of the DFW area for initial development with storms congealing into a solid line mid to late evening and then exiting North Texas after 3am.

and Steves latest update:

The cap continues to hold across north Texas, shutting down thunderstorm formation for the time being. But as mentioned last night, the cap will likely break leading to rapid thunderstorm development, some likely will be severe with hail, high winds, and possible tornado activity. The greatest - but perhaps not only - threat for severe weather will be east of a line from Gainesville to Granbury.
We will need to watch the first storms that pop to our immediate north and west...

[cheezyWXguy]

Initiation has occured along the dryline at the Red River

[Ntxw]

Line will fill in pretty quick next hour or two. Watch is coming for I-35 corridor