Texas Spring 2016

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSFortWorth -- 9:48am - 1" hail covering the ground just northwest of Tioga. #dfwwx #texomawx

[Texas Snowman]

NWS: "AT 957 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER DE KALB...OR 11
MILES WEST OF NEW BOSTON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH."

[aggiecutter]

Dangerous-Large Tornado on the ground just west of New Boston, Texas, heading east at 50 a long interstate 30 towards Hooks and Texarkana. This came out of nowhere as there was just a 20% chance of rain today.

[Texas Snowman]

Any damage in the DeKalb or New Boston area?

Looks like NWS Shreveport let the tornado warning expire.

[aggiecutter]

The storm was just downgraded to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. The storm ran into cooler-more stable air over NE Bowie county, resulting in it loosing its intensity. The only damage I've heard so far is to trees in the open farm country in western Bowie county.

[Texas Snowman]

@FOX4 -- Fort Worth Zoo reports this morning's hail killed several flamingos, a pelican and two ducks.

[Ntxw]

GFS sees the freak Euro storm. May be another big rain producer for someone as well.

[Brent]

summer has been delayed..

[Ntxw]

I actually am compelled to believe this spring snow for Oklahoma/NW Texas a late winter/early spring cool/cold shot. Reason being the EPO has gone negative (finally!) with a -WPO and PNA is neutral negative.

[Jarodm12]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_29.png

Winter??? is that you??? with model consensus say it ain't so!

ill believe it when i see it

[Ntxw]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016031718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

Winter??? is that you??? with model consensus say it ain't so!

ill believe it when i see it

We have seen it done before, as late as April 8th in 2007! It can be done, it will take a miracle. We need the EPO to really deliver. But hey after a few years ago reading articles of Lake Travis in a permanent low never to be filled to max again (now almost full) and that Austin would be a desert with cactus by now, you just don't know what to believe anymore

[Jarodm12]

so is the next model run going to dig it further south? what kind of trend do we need in order for winter to appear here in the metro area?

[Brent]

I'll probably die from shock if it snows inside the metroplex... now Wichita Falls or OKC sure... but not the metro lol

I'd love to be wrong but the time of year has me being realistic. The odds are so stacked against us.

The one thing that does bother me is where was this -PNA in the winter? lol

[Ntxw]

so is the next model run going to dig it further south? what kind of trend do we need in order for winter to appear here in the metro area?

Storm digging south doesn't do much. We've seen several this year. We need the EPO to deliver, and really do it. Why? EPO is surface cold. Big HP with COLD air coming from Canada. Aloft will be cold as with all the systems so far. We have barely been able to muster an HP at 1030 in the "coldest" airmasses this winter. 2013/2014 eats 1030HP for dinner daily that winter . But climo is against, there's a reason 2007 doesn't happen every year. Still though it's not going to be endless warmth. At least we get more rain out of it...if nothing else.

2007 had a near 1050HP coming down from Canada

[Ntxw]

If it's going to snow along the I-20 corridor we'll need to pull something like March 20th 2010. Not an impressive HP or cold air mass, but the storm was incredibly deep for climo. Some Collin county folks got half a foot from that one.

[gboudx]

I'm going Heat Miser and saying, "NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!" to that idea. Too much invested in the garden.

[Ntxw]

I'm going Heat Miser and saying, "NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!" to that idea. Too much invested in the garden.

GFS has DFW in the upper 30s Sunday morning. May want to protect some of the more sensitive ones. Next Thurs-Sat will be another threat we have to look out for in the 30s again.

Tomorrow morning will have clusters or MCS complex coming through, it may wait till after rush hour but should be some hefty thunderstorms.

[TheAustinMan]

Mesoscale Discussion #231 has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center, and highlights a potential threat for large hail across South Central and Southeast Texas. Probability of watch issuance is a low 20%.

[Brent]

I'm going Heat Miser and saying, "NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!" to that idea. Too much invested in the garden.

Has it ever been a thing here to wait until Good Friday to plant?

It certainly was in Alabama... our mets used to bring it up anytime we'd have an extended warm spell early in March

The same storm in April 2007 that it snowed at DFW was a disastrous hard freeze in Alabama... I still remember it quite well. March had been unseasonably warm(a long streak in the 70s and 80s and no freezes in a month) and then everything got zapped.

Edited to add: Long way out... but the GFS has yet another front with upper 30s for DFW to open April... In fact the last few days of March are well below normal this run even before the front with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s and low 60s...

[gboudx]

It's generally advised to wait until April to plant here. But even Good Friday is early this year being in March. I would be ok with temps in 30s as I can cover the garden in case of frost. But snow or ice would be the nail in the coffin.