Texas Spring 2016

[wxman57]

I wouldn't count on any below-normal temps to last more than a couple of days. Euro is still not nearly as cold as the GFS with Friday's front.

[Texas Snowman]

Siding with the Euro over the GFS, eh?

But wasn't it just a couple of pages ago that you were apparently on board with the GFS? ("6Z GFS says "never mind" about the cold air around March 20th. A little below normal (low 50s for lows) but that's it. Winter remains cancelled.")

Not doing a little cherry picking are you?

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: Siding with the Euro over the GFS, eh?

But wasn't it just a couple of pages ago that you were apparently on board with the GFS? ("6Z GFS says "never mind" about the cold air around March 20th. A little below normal (low 50s for lows) but that's it. Winter remains cancelled.")

Not doing a little cherry picking are you?

Well you know. heat is ..is heat does..

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Siding with the Euro over the GFS, eh?

But wasn't it just a couple of pages ago that you were apparently on board with the GFS? ("6Z GFS says "never mind" about the cold air around March 20th. A little below normal (low 50s for lows) but that's it. Winter remains cancelled.")

Not doing a little cherry picking are you?

I like the GFS when it is forecasting hot temps.

You have to admit, though, it has sucked big-time when predicting cold temps this "winter".

[Ntxw]

Speaking of the GFS, Ryan Maue posted this on twitter. Propaganda I say! Sure isn't the unrelenting warmth heat miser is trying to portray.



Given 15-20F below this time of year isn't the same as heart of winter. No less, we'll take any kind of cooldown we can get before summer starts. Any kind of cooler regime will be driven by the -EPO. NW Canada will be cold vs climo but unsure yet where it will head. -20s/-30s is definitely colder than the teens and 20s up there now. Euro has DFW down to near 40 which means surrounding areas will head to the 30s, if you've planted may want to plan.

Tornado outbreak going on in Arkansas, we narrowly missed that one.

[Texas Snowman]

Tons of warnings for sure. Lots of big hailstorms too.

[Brent]

The 0z Euro again has temps near 40 at DFW next Sunday and Monday morning with 30s outside the metro... just like the GFS has had for days.

Almost 3" of rain at DFW(yes this surprised me too lol) between Thursday Night and early Saturday(most of it falls during the day Friday). Highs in the mid 50s Saturday, low 50s on Sunday. That would be a cold snap for this winter tbh lol much less March... mid 80s tomorrow to low 50s. The GFS is actually WARMER for highs than the Euro now(and much drier with only a quarter to a half inch of rain) and highs closer to 60 next weekend(agrees with the Euro on the near 40 Sunday morning)

On another note, can I say how much I hate DST? The models now coming out an hour later...

[wxman57]

After a couple days of cool weather next weekend we're back to this:


And the following weekend:

[Tireman4]

And yet you are siding on the GFS for warmth, the Euro for?

[Ntxw]

Lake Travis is less than a foot from being full. Made a lot of progress there the past 12 months! If we can just average normal spring rains, most locations in Texas will be able to endure a hot summer if one comes when looking at lake levels.

[weatherdude1108]

Lake Travis is less than a foot from being full. Made a lot of progress there the past 12 months! If we can just average normal spring rains, most locations in Texas will be able to endure a hot summer if one comes when looking at lake levels.

They mentioned that on news this morning. It was at 680.6. Full is 681. Remarkable progress over a year ago! Buchanan is also doing a lot better. Nice change!

Travis


Buchanan


Source: http://floodstatus.lcra.org/

[wxman57]

And yet you are siding on the GFS for warmth, the Euro for?

The main difference between the EC & GFS for this coming weekend's temps is that the Euro is a bit warmer. 12Z GFS is a good bit warmer than earlier runs, though. Both indicate that we may see lows into the mid to upper 40s for a couple of days before the above-normal temps resume. Enjoy winter's last gasp this weekend. I may need to get my tights & insulated long-sleeve jersey back out for this weekend. I found yesterday still a bit cool and the temp hit 82. My wife was wishing she'd put on a long-sleeve jersey, so it wasn't just me. I was in a sleeveless jersey. About 85-90 is an ideal temperature range for biking (3-5 hr rides).

[gpsnowman]

Way to hot today. Sweating in places that haven't seen sweat in a while. Thank goodness for the cool down later this week.

[Brent]

90 degrees at DFW I do not approve!

[1900hurricane]

92*F on the shore of Lake Travis this afternoon. Feels fantastic, especially for a day out on the lake!

[Tireman4]

Ughh. Dadgummit. Wxman 57 weather. Great Land o Goshen. I hate to curse on here, but I mowed today. With all I have to do this week ( revise three chapters on my dissertation and grade research papers...ughh..oh yeah, run too), I did not want to be dealing with the mowing. Umm, two hours...sunburned on the neck. Ughh. The only,and I mean only, saving grace is that the winds were from the SW. Dry. Hence, the upper 80's here in Humble. 86F in Humble...HGX AFD...

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW SPOTS (LIKE
BRENHAM) ARE APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY SUNRISE. WINDS NEVER FULLY DECOUPLE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WILL TREND MIN TEMPS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE
ADDITIONAL MIXING AND CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY
WITH SKIES MIXING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIGHTER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW EXITS AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. 850
TEMPS COOL A LITTLE SO WILL TREND MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
FOR TUES AFTN.

FCST SOUNDINGS ON WEDNESDAY SHOW A DEEPENING SATURATED LAYER FROM
THE SFC TO AROUND 800 MB WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.40 INCHES.
STILL SOME DRY AIR AT 700 MB...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WEAK
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. A WEAK S/WV WILL APPROACH SE TX FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AFTN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES.
FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE WITH A STRENGTHENING CAP AND
DRY AIR AT 700 MB. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS ON THURSDAY AS THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THE FRONTAL TIMING AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
CANADIAN SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EC/CANADIAN FOR NOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED HIGHEST POPS FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT AND TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF GUIDANCE THU/FRI. NEXT WEEKEND IS
TRENDING COLDER AND DRIER. 43

[Brent]

Climate summary has DFW at 89 today... either way, too hot for March.

Hottest in March since 2006 apparently... and that was the warmest spring on record(by highs, 2012 barely beat it on average), and included the hottest April on record when DFW hit 100. and 3rd hottest May ever

Oh and is 8th greatest number of 100's in a calendar year...

[wxman57]

This warmth is so great, I think I'm going to cry...

[BigB0882]

This warmth is so great, I think I'm going to cry...

I am crying as well but for completely different reasons.

[gboudx]

This warmth is so great, I think I'm going to cry...