Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[SFLcane]

Ok folks now I am awake... See this post by Dr Michael Ventrice on Twitter.

Latest CanSIPS model showing a VERY favorable tropical atmospheric state for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdMwBYlUUAAM5eT.jpg:large

[Alyono]

That's opposite as to what the EC is showing.

How reliable is CanSIPS?

[TheStormExpert]

That's opposite as to what the EC is showing.

How reliable is CanSIPS?

CanSIPS is the Canadian Seasonal Model, so I would take it with a grain of salt.

[wxman57]

Maybe that's why the Canadian forecasts 100 Atlantic TCs every year? It's opposite the ECMWF as far as the eastern Tropical Atlantic. EC indicates unfavorable conditions there.

[OuterBanker]

Ok folks now Iam awake... See this post by Dr Michael Ventrice on Twitter.

Latest CanSIPS model showing a VERY favorable tropical atmospheric state for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdMwBYlUUAAM5eT.jpg:large

OMG, it’s Armageddon. Especially with that anomaly just off the east African coast.
That scenario would produce an African wave train that we haven’t seen in years.
But, alas it’s the Canadian. The only model that makes the GFS look good.
The model created by wish casters anonymous.
Wxman, not sure if I agree with the Euro on the eastern Atlantic. While they pretty much own the western Atlantic their track in the east is not as good. Also, the water temps just off the African coast have been warmer than usual for the past several months.
I think any prognostications prior to May are pure speculation anyway, IMHO.

[wxman57]

NOGAPS makes the Canadian model look good...

[SFLcane]

You guys jumping all over me lol.. Can we just be positive for "once" about the Atlantic season?

[tatertawt24]

We're too traumatized by 2013 to be positive about an upcoming season.

[Hurricaneman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

One thing I will say is that the EPAC mdr water temps are no where near as warm as 1983 and may be a little more favorable than 1959 or 2013, wouldn't be surprised if this year is something like 2007 or even like 2003

[NDG]

All I see looking outside the box is that the European is forecasting "better" conditions for the Atlantic Basin for JJA of this year than it for JJA of 2015 during this same time of the year. MSLPs maybe not as high with warmer SSTs.
What gives me the benefit of doubt about possibly been that much better than last year as many have mentioned is the warmer tongue of waters north of the El Nino Zones.

2016

2015

2016

2015

[tolakram]

Instability remains below to well below average in the tropical Atlantic.

[WPBWeather]

Re: above post. This is true but it is a lagging indicator--

[Kingarabian]

Re: above post. This is true but it is a lagging indicator--

Not really. While it can change, in the past two seasons where instability was below average before the season started, instability remained below average throughout the season.

[Steve]

I honestly don't know King. That's the last 2 years which may or may not be indicative of what happens in 2016. I don't ever recall vertical instability even being a topic around here until 2013 or 2014*. What would be of greater value than what happened in 2014 or 2015 would be a longer term view of whether or not (in)stability in March provides any clues whatsoever for August, September or October. I have no idea one way or the other as I have no longer term frame of reference much less so with a potentially transitioning strong El Niño which is very different than 2014 or 2015. A larger sample would probably be helpful if anyone has that data.

* I could be wrong, but I think that graph started showing up frequently in either 13 or 14. I'm 85% sure it was 14 when we were trying to figure out what was supressing the atmosphere over the Atlantic. I want to say Bastardi initially was speculating it had something to do with heat being redistributed from points north of the tropics though I'm not sure if anyone ever settled on what was cause and what was effect. I think 13 might have been the year we were trying to figure out why systems that appeared to have potential were dying out in the West Caribbean.

[WPBWeather]

Hi King. It really is a lagging indicator--even taking into account the past two years.

[tolakram]

I suggested it was a lagging indicator last year when it rose above normal after a tropical storm formed. I think that's the wrong assessment, but it's not a predictor either, it's just what IS.

It's currently showing below normal activity in the tropical Atlantic. Will it change, will it stay the same? /shrug Other more active years tended to hover around normal, sometimes above, sometimes below. Staying below or far below indicates something, but what?

[tolakram]

Bear with me while I ponder what the stability graph means.

If you can, load these up in multiple browser tabs so you can flip through the archived images.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2005/data/current/tatins2005.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2006/data/current/tatins.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2007/data/current/tatins2007.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2008/getatins.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2009/getatins.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2010/getatins.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2011/getatins.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2012/getatins.gif
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2013/getatins.gif

Note the average change that used to be from -3 to +3 and now is -5 to +5. This year it's -6 to 0, which puts it back to the -3, +3 range. I have no idea what the heck it means but probably a yearly calibration change.

2009 was the last year the instability followed normals during the hurricane season. 2009 is considered a BELOW NORMAL hurricane season.


Starting with 2010 instability started going below normal during the hurricane season and it's pretty much been like that since.

2010, at the time the third most active Atlantic Hurricane season, including a very active MDR.


2011, lots of named storms.


2012, considered extremely active but outside of the MDR


2013, well below average, no major hurricanes.


This year, so far.


2005, because everyone likes to compare to 2005. A very slow MDR season, lots of in close development.


No solid conclusions here, just found it all interesting. If anything Vertical Instability may be completely meaningless, and not a leading or lagging indicator.

[TheStormExpert]

Still looks like it helps having it near normal in terms of intensity of MDR storms.

Something interesting to note is 2005 was below normal with MDR Instability through March(kind of like we're seeing now) and spiked up come April, May, and June.

[Ntxw]

Too look at instability we must understand what it is. Relationship of moisture vs temperature in the atmosphere. Temperatures are not the issue, it is moisture. What has caused the Atlantic to become so dry (throughout most of the year in general) since 2010 and we can see during good activity (the past several years) the vertical instability went up overall. What is the driving cause? Is the gradual higher than normal pressures doing it?

[Hurricaneman]

Id be leary of as there seems to be some patches of negative anomalies forming SW of the baja which could mean a more volitile hurricanes season meaning higher number of storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes so thats something to watch the next few months

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products