Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Hurricaneman]

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I think a season like 2013 is very possible as that was a borderline La Niña but had extremely warm anomalies in the EPAC mdr which made that season pretty much a dud despite the other favorable conditions, that warm water sheared out most if not all systems in the Atlantic causing a lowest 5 ace year so both 1983 and 2013 are good analogs and possibly 1959 if the EPAC mdr doesn't cool but if it does 1998 could enter as an analog year

[Hammy]

I don't see 2013 as being anything close to an analog year as all parameters were unfavorable, most notably the lack of instability, below normal tropical SSTs, significantly higher across-the-basin shear, and very dry air. All indications are that at least half of these (likely instability/moisture) will be more than favorable. 2013 also featured large areas of below normal temperatures that further reduced instability (which was reduced globally in fact) whereas this winter was one of the warmest on record.

[tolakram]

My contribution so far is hmmm.





So far I'm not seeing a big bump in instability numbers.

[WPBWeather]

You are in a shrinking group Mark.

[Steve]

Not that it matters this early, but CFSV2 continues to show slight precip anomalies (+) around Florida in JAS/ASO. With most of the ridge and trough axes east of here, it's somewhat looking like it could be a FL/NC/Bahamian threat year on the ocean side. I'm not sure about the gulf. Very few of the troughs that have come down have hung around, and most all of them were short lived. It's been colder than average overall, but it never really got super cold. We might have had 1 freeze this year, and if so, it was 31 or 32. I'm going to have to wait for the SSTA's to evolve, the mean trough position of the end of winter and ultimately whether the troughs start splitting back or not. That happens in La Nina and often in Neutral, but usually with El Nino, systems just progress across the country. If that begins changing, and if we're in slight ENSO Warm territory during the heart, there could be more than enough fuel for a busy season. Thing is though, with a high ACE La Nina season, there are often a lot of fish storms with maybe a couple of smaller (possibly one or two bigger) threats to the US. This is shaping up to be a different season than any we've seen in a while. I also don't see 1983 or 2013 remotely similar in patterns.

[PTrackerLA]

Actually it has been an extremely mild winter here mainly because of December which averaged 7.5 degrees above normal. I just saw that Alexandria, LA recorded their warmest winter on record. I'm fully preparing myself for a brutally hot summer and potentially active Gulf of Mexico.

[tolakram]

You are in a shrinking group Mark.

What group is that?

Don't answer, but instead stop grouping people. I'm not making a forecast, I'm looking at data we've viewed in the past and wondering what, if anything, it means.

[wxman57]

Let's end the grouping of people and the battle of who's right and who's wrong as far as the outlook. I know a number of very good forecasters, including Phil Klotzbach, who are quite uncertain whether we'll have an active or quiet season. My initial thoughts are that the tropics look a bit more favorable than the last couple of seasons, with the possible exception of the area between the Caribbean & Africa. The western Caribbean & Gulf look like they MAY have less shear this season. The EC's prediction of above-average rainfall in the far East Pacific may be a concern for the western Caribbean, meaning we may see more sinking air in the western Caribbean (less favorable conditions) than the EC is indicating.

One of my coworkers is saying 5 additional storms this season, another says 13-14 more storms. I just don't know. I am leaning toward a greater risk that a disturbance makes it across the Caribbean and poses a hurricane risk to the northern Gulf Coast. Perhaps below-normal threat for the Lesser Antilles due to less-than-favorable conditions east of the Caribbean. East U.S. Coast may also be under-the-gun.

Past history does suggest a very active cycle is coming, but that could wait until 2017.

Therefore, my forecast for 2016 is for somewhere between 6 total storms and 16 total storms, with a slight and less-than-confident leaning to above 10.

[TheStormExpert]

Let's end the grouping of people and the battle of who's right and who's wrong as far as the outlook. I know a number of very good forecasters, including Phil Klotzbach, who are quite uncertain whether we'll have an active or quiet season. My initial thoughts are that the tropics look a bit more favorable than the last couple of seasons, with the possible exception of the area between the Caribbean & Africa. The western Caribbean & Gulf look like they MAY have less shear this season. The EC's prediction of above-average rainfall in the far East Pacific may be a concern for the western Caribbean, meaning we may see more sinking air in the western Caribbean (less favorable conditions) than the EC is indicating.

One of my coworkers is saying 5 additional storms this season, another says 13-14 more storms. I just don't know. I am leaning toward a greater risk that a disturbance makes it across the Caribbean and poses a hurricane risk to the northern Gulf Coast. Perhaps below-normal threat for the Lesser Antilles due to less-than-favorable conditions east of the Caribbean. East U.S. Coast may also be under-the-gun.

Past history does suggest a very active cycle is coming, but that could wait until 2017.

Therefore, my forecast for 2016 is for somewhere between 6 total storms and 16 total storms, with a slight and less-than-confident leaning to above 10.

A little off topic but when you're referring to a very active cycle coming would this very active cycle be similar to the one of 2004/2005 or is it hard to tell?

[SFLcane]

Let's end the grouping of people and the battle of who's right and who's wrong as far as the outlook. I know a number of very good forecasters, including Phil Klotzbach, who are quite uncertain whether we'll have an active or quiet season. My initial thoughts are that the tropics look a bit more favorable than the last couple of seasons, with the possible exception of the area between the Caribbean & Africa. The western Caribbean & Gulf look like they MAY have less shear this season. The EC's prediction of above-average rainfall in the far East Pacific may be a concern for the western Caribbean, meaning we may see more sinking air in the western Caribbean (less favorable conditions) than the EC is indicating.

One of my coworkers is saying 5 additional storms this season, another says 13-14 more storms. I just don't know. I am leaning toward a greater risk that a disturbance makes it across the Caribbean and poses a hurricane risk to the northern Gulf Coast. Perhaps below-normal threat for the Lesser Antilles due to less-than-favorable conditions east of the Caribbean. East U.S. Coast may also be under-the-gun.

Past history does suggest a very active cycle is coming, but that could wait until 2017.

Therefore, my forecast for 2016 is for somewhere between 6 total storms and 16 total
storms, with a slight and less-than-confident leaning to above 10.

Last time you said something like this all hell broke loose. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

A little off topic but when you're referring to a very active cycle coming would this very active cycle be similar to the one of 2004/2005 or is it hard to tell?

I'm not speaking for wxman57 nor do I even know if this is what he meant, but in general after major El Nino episodes there is almost always an active season statistically speaking. It may not be this year but more times than not at the very least by the second year after. The back to back years of below normal will likely come to end within the near future.

This is talking ACE and numbers in general. Any impacts or threats to the US is always dependent on timing and placement that no one can really see in a seasonal forecast.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking the best analogs are 1958, 1973, 1983, 1998 and 2007.

[wxman57]

Phil Klotzbach tweeted the other day that the best analogs as far as Pacific and N. Atlantic SSTs are (in this order): 1987, 1983, 1998, 1992, 1912, 1941, 1973, 1977, 1958, and 1903. He said that none of those 10 analogs had a northeast Atlantic as cool as it is now, though. Only 3 of those 10 analog seasons had ACE above normal.

[Steve]

1983 surprises me because that seemed like a really cold ass winter up in Hammond. But sure enough, the SSTA's are fairly close for March. Overall, I think the temps are warmer especially off Austraila, the SE US, off the SW African Coast and near the Arabian Peninsula. https://www.google.com/search?q=march+1 ... 9VxUO3M%3A

[Alyono]

Latest EC going for a below average Atlantic season. Higher than normal pressures in the Atlantic, with the trend toward higher pressures as the season progresses.

Also, looking at the precip anomalies, Hawaii could be at a significantly elevated risk. Would make sense given the possible 1959 and 1992 analogs, both of which had hurricanes striking Hawaii

[Alyono]

Looked at the EC storm density map, the EC is showing that there could be above normal Gulf and Hawaii activity this year. These appear to be the areas in the USA at the greatest risk this year

[SFLcane]

Ah yeah we have been saying this for years. Wake me up when there's anything interesting in the Atlantic

[WPBWeather]

WeatherBell (on the paid site) seems to differ a bit. ACE trending UP. Less active than 2003-05, but more active than last year--even though we had Cat 4+ Joaquin.

[wxman57]

WeatherBell (on the paid site) seems to differ a bit. ACE trending UP. Less active than 2003-05, but more active than last year--even though we had Cat 4+ Joaquin.

I agree - more active than last year, less active ACE-wise than normal (104 is normal). Joaquin was pretty much THE 2015 season, with nearly half the ACE for 2015. Other than Joaquin, hurricanes were short-lived. I would expect more hurricane activity this season, but maybe not an intense hurricane lasting as long as Joaquin. NW Caribbean and particularly the Gulf may be at elevated risk.

[RL3AO]

I'll be spending the summer in Miami at NHC. I'm curious to see what happens if a system threatens the US during June/July. On the other hand, I don't want another June/July 2005 because I won't get any work done.