Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Brent]

I dunno about the cold... but FWD did offer a teaser for at least... something happening.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT WE MAY STAY IN A BIT
WETTER PATTERN WITH POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE MONTH.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX had a mixed message. Looks like our one opportunity for a break in the dry is Sunday/Monday. Then back to the same ole' stuff.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 182133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WE EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. WE/LL
CAP RAIN CHANCES AT 50% FOR NOW...BUT IF LATER MODEL DATA REMAINS
CONSISTENT...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE CHANCES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW ONE QUARTER
INCH...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO ONE HALF INCH
EAST OF HIGHWAY 71.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS DRY
AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
INCREASE.

[JDawg512]

EWX tends to not to hint at longer range forecasts past 7 days. I would assume we will see dry weather return but hopefully temporarily then changes at the end of the month.

[Brent]

EWX tends to not to hint at longer range forecasts past 7 days. I would assume we will see dry weather return but hopefully temporarily then changes at the end of the month.

The GFS has been showing a (other than the 12z today run which was some frozen stuff) a rain event around the Feb 29-Mar 2 timeframe ever since it was 384 hours out... so the signal is pretty solid for being so far out. Yeah... after Mon/Tue the rest of next week into the weekend will be dry.

Edit: the 18z GFS is rolling and shows some light rain next weekend and at 240 hours is already showing the March 1 setup again starting with cold air pushing into the Panhandle

Edit: 2nd run in a row... big winter storm on February 29th:



snow on March 1!

[PTrackerLA]

LOL epic ice storm to the gulf Coast for March 1st. Go home GFS, not this year.

[Brent]

Mostly snow here, and 19 degrees at DFW at 6z on March 2nd...



Sleet, the ZR is mostly not in Texas:

[Texas Snowman]

Happened a couple of years ago in early March here in North Texas. It was 17 degrees in Denison with thunder sleet at 3 pm in the afternoon. Ironically enough, I believe it was March 2.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Need the new data from the 0z to see something different. 0z and 12z have new data i believe. Lets be honest, that storm isnt sticking around. If its there 8 days out then i would think it may be indicating an ice storm for DFW folk.


But again, likely not happening although i think March will be cool and wet. No freezes in Houston though.

[Brent]

Need the new data from the 0z to see something different. 0z and 12z have new data i believe. Lets be honest, that storm isnt sticking around. If its there 8 days out then i would think it may be indicating an ice storm for DFW folk.


But again, likely not happening although i think March will be cool and wet. No freezes in Houston though.

Well it's fun to pretend we don't live in Texas sometimes...

I do agree though, my strong hunch is that March will be cool and wet, I could even see some cold rains(just to annoy us and wonder why we didn't have the pattern in Jan/Feb)... I'm not believing a winter storm though...

FWIW: The Weather Channel's 15 day forecast has no sign of anything remotely cold... 70s for highs and a rain event during that timeframe above.

[Ntxw]

Maybe the GFS panicked after it saw the -40 SOI crash, the pattern is shifting towards less hostile though so the warm pattern will last about another week before seasonal shifts of the jet occurs.

[Ntxw]

Euro weeklies actually does derive a very different pattern going into March. At least the results will be different given the shortening wavelengths of the seasons. Split flow vs just +PNA dominance. First glimpse of a pattern change, perhaps?

[Ntxw]

Btw DFW didn't hit 80 today but very mild, and close tomorrow. But up in the panhandle several places went above 90F!

[TheProfessor]

It's going to be toasty here this weekend before it gets cold again.

[dhweather]

In 4584 hours, the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!

[weatherdude1108]

Encouraging words from the CPC and Bob Rose.


CPC forecasters are calling for above normal precipitation across Texas from March through May and this should help alleviate the developing drought.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[TheAustinMan]

After the brief GFS wintry precip tease, we now witness the following:

[Brent]

Well that lasted all of 2 runs...

onto spring

[BigB0882]

Well it may have backed off on the winter weather (shocker) but it now shows us getting 4 inches of rain out of that event, the temps are in the 60s or 70s instead of the mid 30s. I would much prefer that to a miserable cold rain.

[Ntxw]

I'm seeing large hemispheric changes in the pattern once we exit February. As bad as the PNA is the results are not entirely the same with shorter wavelengths. Things happen quickly and more rapidly vs drawn out when the pattern is stuck. Perhaps it is a combination of pattern changes as well as seasonal changes as the jets lift northward.

There is some beneficial rain early next week this coming Monday.

[TheProfessor]

I haven't been much of a snow magnet this year, but maybe I can bring something back to Texas with me the 2nd week of March.