Texas Winter 2015-2016

[wxman57]

While the 12Z GFS doesn't indicate any cold air for Houston, it does predict at least a couple inches of rain next Tuesday. Mid to upper 70s this weekend, though. Great biking weather (in my yellow speedo).

[gboudx]

Very nice dh.

I know some of us read Steve McCauley's FB page. This is a long post from him, but provides his commentary on the weather. I think he posted this mostly because people kept asking him why it wasn't cold and snowy this El Nino and he got tired of saying El Nino doesn't mean cold and snowy.

https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mcc ... 15078530:0

WARNING: L-O-N-G post follows. Enter at your own risk.

For the past 6 months, there has been a lot of misunderstanding of what El Nino conditions mean for north Texas. Here is a quick graphic with some great maps provided by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.

Last fall when the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) made the prediction that it would be cooler and wetter than normal this winter in north Texas, many people immediately interpreted that as meaning a cold and snow-filled winter was on the way. But this is NOT what the forecast indicated.

"Cooler than average" during an El Nino winter in the southern United States usually means only SLIGHTLY below normal with very few if any serious arctic air invasions. Indeed, mild winters are often observed in north Texas during El Nino. Those who follow this page regularly know that I planted a lot of palm trees in my landscape late last summer with the understanding and confidence that a very mild winter was coming up, and thus the palms would go through an "easy winter" giving them time to become well established before a "real" winter would return in future years.

But why did I think a mild winter was on tap for north Texas if the prediction was for "cooler than normal"? Because we are in the South, and temperatures that are predicted to be "slightly below normal" are still mild compared to the rest of the country. Also, if you looked at those national winter outlook maps carefully, you would have observed that they called for ABOVE NORMAL temperatures all across the northern and central plains states which indicated very few if any arctic air surges would make it down to Texas.

So the notion that El Nino brings prolonged and sharp cold snaps and snowy conditions to north Texas is a misunderstanding of what the forecast said.

Can it get cold during El Nino? Yes. Can you get dumped on with a lot of snow during El Nino? Yes. But a cold snowy winter is not guaranteed, especially if the El Nino pattern is strong.

Having said this, however, it is clear that we have NOT had even slightly below normal temperatures this winter. Why? Because there has been FAR MORE SUNSHINE this winter than expected.

El Nino tends to bring a lot of clouds in the wintertime to north Texas which is the main reason why temperatures were expected to take a slight hit. But since those overcast days have been few and far between, it is no surprise that we have been so warm. If you don't get the clouds during an El Nino winter, your temperatures have no choice but to go above normal. You see, if one aspect of the outlook fails to come to pass, then the other part is bound to fall like a house of cards.

Unfortunately, one aspect of a strong El Nino did come to pass after Christmas when the tornado outbreak occurred. There is indeed an elevated severe weather threat during El Nino winters - again revealing the unseasonably warm conditions that El Nino will sometimes bring. But it is interesting to note that El Nino tends to DECREASE the number of tornadoes in the following spring. We can only hope that tendency will come true, but it must be remembered that these are "tendencies" not guarantees.

But back to the winter outlook ... while ABOVE NORMAL precipitation tends to occur during any given El Nino winter, it is interesting to note that in STRONG El Nino years - like the one we currently have - precipitation amounts tend to be just normal, NOT above normal! See the maps on this graphic that show what happened during other STRONG El Nino years. Above normal precipitation only occurred in two of those years!

I will end this long post by emphasizing that El Nino forecasts are "tendencies" not guarantees. El Nino is NOT the only dog in the hunt when it comes to determining what north Texas will experience in any given winter. And so just because El Nino "tends" to bring such-and-such weather conditions, other factors can come into play and overwhelm those tendencies and deliver un-el nino conditions (like a lack of cloud cover!).

I know many of you who saw the winter outlook last fall were expecting a very cold and snowy winter, and I think part of the reason why rests on how the winter outlook was presented without detailed analysis and explanation. It has been my experience that when you combine incomplete analysis with limited explanation, you set up the ideal conditions for anticappointment.

[Ntxw]

The magic numbers for El Nino is 1-1.5C moderate. We can get away with 1.5C-2C for colder second half to third of winter. Greater than 2C is clearly trouble, I wish we had more info on the 1877-1878 super event to use back in the fall. It probably would have helped, a lot of study needs to be done on super events (el nino and la nina). But they are extremely rare, of the past 50 years or so we've only had 3 true super Ninos including this one

[orangeblood]

Active southern storm track looks promising towards the end of this month into early March....with blocking over the top, I wouldn't cancel winter quite yet!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The magic numbers for El Nino is 1-1.5C moderate. We can get away with 1.5C-2C for colder second half to third of winter. Greater than 2C is clearly trouble, I wish we had more info on the 1877-1878 super event to use back in the fall. It probably would have helped, a lot of study needs to be done on super events (el nino and la nina). But they are extremely rare, of the past 50 years or so we've only had 3 true super Ninos including this one

Yeah i remember reading the article about the lack off winter for the Northern Plains etc. Im even more interested that we didnt get much rain. .38 in of rain in the last 30 days. Crazy.

How about the Euro showing this massive ULL Low in the Southeast in ten days?

According to Michael Ventrice, the 1.2 region of Nino has cooled over 1C in he last month, Look out heat miser!

[wxman57]

Euro has much less precip for Houston next Mon/Tue - only a tenth of an inch or two. It has 1-2" for the D-FW area, though.

[Tireman4]

While the 12Z GFS doesn't indicate any cold air for Houston, it does predict at least a couple inches of rain next Tuesday. Mid to upper 70s this weekend, though. Great biking weather (in my yellow speedo).

Yellow Speedo, sir?

[wxman57]

While the 12Z GFS doesn't indicate any cold air for Houston, it does predict at least a couple inches of rain next Tuesday. Mid to upper 70s this weekend, though. Great biking weather (in my yellow speedo).

Yellow Speedo, sir?

See dhweather's post on the previous page.

[Tireman4]

While the 12Z GFS doesn't indicate any cold air for Houston, it does predict at least a couple inches of rain next Tuesday. Mid to upper 70s this weekend, though. Great biking weather (in my yellow speedo).

Yellow Speedo, sir?

See dhweather's post on the previous page.

I was about to put on the eww factor. LOL

[Tireman4]

It sure is quiet in here. Everyone move to the spring thread? Trend is for the cold air in Canada to shift to eastern Canada. 12Z GFS run isn't all the way in yet, but it still has that pattern. It'll be very difficult to get any really cold air in Texas with the cold air located in eastern Canada. I'm quite confident now that we won't see another freeze in Houston this winter. Certainly, no freezing/frozen precip issues.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_37.png

Most of us agree with you winter is over, has been over, hardly started to begin with. We're just waiting for the calendar to flip March 1st (MAM) for the spring thread.

But don't get too excited, we're already planning next winter. Yes, that desperate!

Maybe just maybe we can get something in return. How about a cold Summer? I mean, could all this translate to that?

[Brent]

It sure is quiet in here. Everyone move to the spring thread? Trend is for the cold air in Canada to shift to eastern Canada. 12Z GFS run isn't all the way in yet, but it still has that pattern. It'll be very difficult to get any really cold air in Texas with the cold air located in eastern Canada. I'm quite confident now that we won't see another freeze in Houston this winter. Certainly, no freezing/frozen precip issues.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_37.png

Most of us agree with you winter is over, has been over, hardly started to begin with. We're just waiting for the calendar to flip March 1st (MAM) for the spring thread.

But don't get too excited, we're already planning next winter. Yes, that desperate!

Maybe just maybe we can get something in return. How about a cold Summer? I mean, could all this translate to that?

We can always hope but unfortunately we live in Texas...

At this point I just hope we keep the number of 100 days in the single digits...

[Ntxw]

There is no such thing as a cool summer in Texas. Just hellish hot, or a wet, rainy summer. Non-100 degree years is even more rare than seeing 0F or lower any given year

[Brent]

There is no such thing as a cool summer in Texas. Just hellish hot, or a wet, rainy summer. Non-100 degree years is even more rare than seeing 0F or lower any given year

I'm honestly about ready to just expect the worst out of this year... after most of the analogs for the winter were dead wrong. Maybe I'll be surprised... No reason to hope for a less bad summer and then be disappointed when it's 100+ for 20 days...

[dhweather]

Any questions, see the 2015-6 Texas Winter thread, page 167, post #3339

[Brent]

Earliest 90 degree on record at Phoenix...

[Ntxw]

Earliest 90 degree on record at Phoenix...

Thats surprising given DFW's earliest 90 is Jan 31st

[Tireman4]

http://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/iLEAAOxyyF5RQ74o/s-l500.jpg

Any questions, see the 2015-6 Texas Winter thread, page 167, post #3339

And now, I cannot unsee this. Ughh...

[vbhoutex]

http://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/iLEAAOxyyF5RQ74o/s-l500.jpg

Any questions, see the 2015-6 Texas Winter thread, page 167, post #3339

And now, I cannot unsee this. Ughh...

OW!! MY EYES!! MY EYES!! ROFLMAO!!

[Ptarmigan]

Not so fast my warm weathered friend. Correct me if I am wrong, but has it not snowed in March in the Houston area. Look at March 1932. Humm...never say never sir...

http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

2016 is no 1932 year.

1932 was a Neutral year. Snow is not related to El Nino or La Nina.

[Ntxw]

Warmth up and down the plains the rest of this week. DFW's records are safe but many cities in Missouri, Kansas, the Dakotas will break daily highs as the PNA ridge strengthens. Strong south/southwest winds. My allergies/sinuses can sense it. Been a week of sniffling and sneezing for me.