Texas Winter 2015-2016

[wxman57]

Technically, anything cooler than our current range of warmth is colder and I'll take it.

However, the Euro indicates this will be a very fleeting cold snap. By the next day, the cold air is shifting east very rapidly. And to the north, low temps in southern Alberta (that's in Canada) are above freezing for lows that day. By the morning of the 26th, there are many areas in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan are also above freezing for lows. It's hard to get really cold air in Texas if it doesn't exist to our north.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, that looks like some extreme cold for Texas around the 25th. Down to the upper 30s in the D-FW area and low 40s in Houston. Here's a temperature contour map from the 12Z ECMWF. Time to start preparing for this event now!

PS: It gets colder in Miami than in Houston with this outbreak, and colder in Orlando than in Dallas.

http://oi67.tinypic.com/259jpc1.jpg

Down to the upper 30s in the D-FW area and low 40s in Houston. Here's a temperature contour map from the 12Z ECMWF. Time to start preparing for this event now!



This was my comic relief for the day. Not everyone may agree, and I dislike warmth in the heart of Winter, but I have to admit this was funny IMHO.

[wxman57]

Down to the upper 30s in the D-FW area and low 40s in Houston. Here's a temperature contour map from the 12Z ECMWF. Time to start preparing for this event now!



This was my comic relief for the day. Not everyone may agree, and I dislike warmth in the heart of Winter, but I have to admit this was funny IMHO.

Yeah, keep laughing - you could see temps down to the lower 40s there in the Austin area, too! Better start preparing.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Technically, anything cooler than our current range of warmth is colder and I'll take it.

However, the Euro indicates this will be a very fleeting cold snap. By the next day, the cold air is shifting east very rapidly. And to the north, low temps in southern Alberta (that's in Canada) are above freezing for lows that day. By the morning of the 26th, there are many areas in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan are also above freezing for lows. It's hard to get really cold air in Texas if it doesn't exist to our north.

The 26th is in 10 days though. 9 days is definitely believable, 10 is an out of the question pipe dream! We can't believe that.

[Ntxw]

Euro and Ensembles is just more of the same through 10 days. PNA ridge progressing out after NW flow, it will fleet east and quick warm up after any "cold front" if you can call it that. I've seen more impressive cold fronts in October. Winter is long over folks for the southern plains. Pleasant weather to prepare for spring planting. Extended early growing season for those tomatoes!

This about nails the coffin

[wxman57]

The coffin was nailed weeks ago, it's now under 6ft of dirt with daisies pushing up into the warm spring-like air.

[TheProfessor]

The coffin was nailed weeks ago, it's now under 6ft of dirt with daisies pushing up into the warm spring-like air.

[JDawg512]

Putting it in a local perspective, Camp Mabry (KATT) has had only five freezes this winter season. And they really weren't much to speak of. We hit 31 one time and 32 four times. That is it. The temperature has not dipped below 31 degrees. On average, Austin has 19 days where the temp dips below 31 ... this season, only ONE.

I currently don't have a working digital thermometer though shouldn't be long before I have a new one set up. If it got down to freezing at all this season here at my house, it hasn't lasted long enough to do any damage to the plants that normally die back for the winter. I even have some cold sensitive plants that tend to damage below 38 degrees that have very little in the way of damage.

So far I've seen a Redbud tree starting to bloom as well as a couple of orange flowered Acacias. Some Irises and several other spring flowering plants that normally don't bloom till the last week of Febuary at the earliest are either blooming now or about to within a few days.

Still desperately waiting for rain! ☔

[Ntxw]

Putting it in a local perspective, Camp Mabry (KATT) has had only five freezes this winter season. And they really weren't much to speak of. We hit 31 one time and 32 four times. That is it. The temperature has not dipped below 31 degrees. On average, Austin has 19 days where the temp dips below 31 ... this season, only ONE.

I currently don't have a working digital thermometer though shouldn't be long before I have a new one set up. If it got down to freezing at all this season here at my house, it hasn't lasted long enough to do any damage to the plants that normally die back for the winter. I even have some cold sensitive plants that tend to damage below 38 degrees that have very little in the way of damage.

So far I've seen a Redbud tree starting to bloom as well as a couple of orange flowered Acacias. Some Irises and several other spring flowering plants that normally don't bloom till the last week of Febuary at the earliest are either blooming now or about to within a few days. DFW had some freezes but none of them were long enough either to do significant damage. And the ones protected by the home are thriving.

Still desperately waiting for rain! ☔

My lawn is about as green as I have ever seen it in winter (usually yellow). Rose bushes are flowering and many other shrubs. Long, bountiful growing season ahead as long as we get persistent rains

[TheAustinMan]

'Tis a year-round bird here, but the white-winged dove is now making more of its resonating calls in the late-afternoon once again, as are a whole lot of other birds in my area. It's a great sound to hear, but it does signal that winter is just about over. It appears that our chances of winter weather are drawing to a close, but the models suggest that the weather pattern here should shift to a more active, springlike setup beginning early next week, for what it's worth.

... I have a question about a previous post somewhere on this forum. Someone posted a link to a global tropical satellite loop for 2015. I can't find it. Anyone know where to look?

Right over here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4mBYwBNULk

[ravyrn]

What about 2010-2011? That one was bad. The Spring was hot, and the Summer, goodness a furnace...

Eh? I remember two significant snow/icing events that winter in DFW. I moved there in October and that January and February had to drive with the roads having ice/snow on them twice that winter. In fact, I think we got about 6" of snow in Little Elm during one of those followed by the Superbowl event. The summer was bad, but that winter was no joke!

[Ntxw]

First decent signal of some rain in awhile. Euro has it and GFS has it, HPC likes it. Not the 2015esque club of 5"+ bullseyes but any other year such as 2016 it's acceptable.

[Brent]

GFS looks really promising in the long range for rain... first Sunday/Monday and then around Feb 29-Mar 2. In fact it has a huge heavy rain event to open March beyond 300 hours and a band of snow in Oklahoma on the backside on March 3rd...

Also a lot cooler temps... still nothing really cold but at least maybe it won't be approaching 80...

Euro has a decent cold snap behind the Monday storm because a snowstorm blows up east of us(yes again... ), could be some patchy frost next Thursday morning if this run is correct... the 32 degree line is not far away from DFW

[Tireman4]

What about 2010-2011? That one was bad. The Spring was hot, and the Summer, goodness a furnace...

Eh? I remember two significant snow/icing events that winter in DFW. I moved there in October and that January and February had to drive with the roads having ice/snow on them twice that winter. In fact, I think we got about 6" of snow in Little Elm during one of those followed by the Superbowl event. The summer was bad, but that winter was no joke![/quote


Ok, I could be wrong. I just remember it not getting cold in the Winter portion of 2011 in Houston. Spring was a blow torch and Summer was ridiculous.Now, I could be wrong....

[gboudx]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Upper air pattern of western US ridge and eastern US trough which has resulted in unseasonably warm and dry conditions for the last 6-8 weeks will continue for the next few days before changes finally occur late this weekend.

Upper ridge overhead this morning stretching from MX into the southern plains will lead to another day of warm afternoon temperatures. Weak cool front overnight with offshore winds will help to keep temperatures from getting out of control today (highs in the mid 70’s) compared to the lower 80’s yesterday. Surface high will move eastward tonight and early Thursday with strong southerly flow returning to the area. With upper ridge building and warming mid level temperatures combined with strong warm air advection on S to SW winds expect both Thursday and Friday to be warm to very warm. Will go with low 80’s both days, but would not be surprised to see some mid 80’s especially west of I-45.

Upper air pattern finally breaks down just enough to allow a storm system to approach the area late this weekend and on Monday with what appears to be the best chance of rainfall for the region since the start of 2016. Multiple days of southerly flow will help to moisten the air mass both at the surface and aloft. This combined with decent lift along a frontal boundary should result in a good chance for showers and even a few thunderstorms on Monday. Will cap rain chances at 50% for now due to the general dry pattern we have been stuck in since the start of the year, but hopefully this system can upset the current upper air pattern enough to allow drying areas to get some much needed rainfall.

Climate:
January 2016 was the warmest January on record across the planet…following eh hottest year on record (2015). Average January temperatures were just above 2.0 F degrees above normal with tremendous warmth located across the polar regions of the northern hemisphere. Some locations across the Arctic averaged 20-23F above normal for the month of January. The significant lack of cold air across the Arctic is one reason why temperatures have been so mild across the US and TX this winter. The biggest driver of this overall warmth appears to be the strong El Nino in the central and eastern Pacific, but there is likely also some degree of contribution from climate change involved as well. Typical El Nino patterns show a lag time between the maximum water temperatures (which peaked in early December) and the maximum global warmth…usually 2-4 months after the SST max. One would expect continued very warm to record warm global temperatures to continue into February and March.

[wxman57]

It sure is quiet in here. Everyone move to the spring thread? Trend is for the cold air in Canada to shift to eastern Canada. 12Z GFS run isn't all the way in yet, but it still has that pattern. It'll be very difficult to get any really cold air in Texas with the cold air located in eastern Canada. I'm quite confident now that we won't see another freeze in Houston this winter. Certainly, no freezing/frozen precip issues.

[PTrackerLA]

Well this is by far the earliest I have ever planted any vegetables (before Valentine's day) and I'm not concerned about a freeze at all. In typical winters we normally see one more strong cold front with a decent freeze around March 1st give or take a week or so but I just don't see that this year. Maybe I'll have better luck than last season with all the spring rain followed by a hot summer I had a terrible time with the tomatoes!

[Ntxw]

It sure is quiet in here. Everyone move to the spring thread? Trend is for the cold air in Canada to shift to eastern Canada. 12Z GFS run isn't all the way in yet, but it still has that pattern. It'll be very difficult to get any really cold air in Texas with the cold air located in eastern Canada. I'm quite confident now that we won't see another freeze in Houston this winter. Certainly, no freezing/frozen precip issues.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_37.png

Most of us agree with you winter is over, has been over, hardly started to begin with. We're just waiting for the calendar to flip March 1st (MAM) for the spring thread.

But don't get too excited, we're already planning next winter. Yes, that desperate!

[dhweather]

What Winter?
Dallas, Texas (AP)

As Texans run around half naked in unusually warm 70-80 degree weather in February, some are asking about the Winter that wasn't for 2015-2016. "I ain't never seen it warm like this in February" said Jim Bob of Corsicana, "my wife got mad at me and made me sleep outside, it was really comfy out there. This is punishment?"

Lee Roy of Lewisville laughed when asked about the weather across North Texas "two, maybe three months ago, it rained so much, everyone was worried that the dam on the lake was about to fail. Mother Nature took care of that by throwing us back into drought. See how everything just works out!"

Meanwhile, down in South Texas, a man that only identified himself as "wxman57" stopped his bicycle ride to let the AP talk with him about the weather. "I normally do not ride my bike in only my yellow speedo thong, but dang, it is so warm out here, I don't want to get overheated or anything."

[Ntxw]

that was great sir