Texas Winter 2015-2016

[gboudx]

I'm thinking I'll start my garden this weekend or next. That should get some cold weather moving this way. If not, then I'll have a bountiful tomato crop before the summer heat kills it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The wet pattern I have faith in. MAM will be good. The cold pattern I do not. It will struggle to get below 50F at night here the next week or two. 1047-1050mb high in s-central Canada will slip southeast producing a Valentines day cold outbreak east of the MS. We won't even feel a blip.

Some years we stick to this thread if there is a legit threat of cold in March until the equinox. If this keeps up though we may just transition to the spring thread per usual meteorological months (MAM) 1st of March.

Man I miss getting high. Pressure that is.

No joke, seemed like every two weeks we were watching a massive high pressure prepping to enter the U.S.

Looks like another east coast storm coming too. SAI is proving right for another cold Feb on the east coast.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I do not see even a low temp close to a freeze for quite an extended period of time. Although this winter hasn't been that great my area has had numerous freezes and a couple of pretty hard freezes. We also had a couple of snow events with the second one being the best. But no freezes through the end of February? That's a little ridiculous. I usually hold on until the end but I give up. Back to 9 months of heat I guess.

[Portastorm]

Sorry, but I have minimal confidence in longer range predictions based on indices or analogs or whatever. I keep a pretty good eye on what some of the more prominent national forecasters say about seasonal forecasts. I do not recall anyone getting this "winter" accurate. Most called for a pattern change by late January. That did not occur. No one to my knowledge predicted the rainfall deficit in Texas which began around Christmas and continues today. Even our own, venerable wxman57has conceded that this season has even confounded him! Mother Nature has thrown us a big curveball this year to remind us that she is not as predictable as we may think.

[weatherdude1108]

Sorry, but I have minimal confidence in longer range predictions based on indices or analogs or whatever. I keep a pretty good eye on what some of the more prominent national forecasters say about seasonal forecasts. I do not recall anyone getting this "winter" accurate. Most called for a pattern change by late January. That did not occur. No one to my knowledge predicted the rainfall deficit in Texas which began around Christmas and continues today. Even our own, venerable wxman57has conceded that this season has even confounded him! Mother Nature has thrown us a big curveball this year to remind us that she is not as predictable as we may think.

Amen to that Porta! Historic analogs have proven mostly unreliable. Hard to know what to predict anymore. But, that is what makes Texas weather an interesting roller-coaster ride.

[dhweather]

Sorry, but I have minimal confidence in longer range predictions based on indices or analogs or whatever. I keep a pretty good eye on what some of the more prominent national forecasters say about seasonal forecasts. I do not recall anyone getting this "winter" accurate. Most called for a pattern change by late January. That did not occur. No one to my knowledge predicted the rainfall deficit in Texas which began around Christmas and continues today. Even our own, venerable wxman57has conceded that this season has even confounded him! Mother Nature has thrown us a big curveball this year to remind us that she is not as predictable as we may think.

Realistically, this Winter has been a bust at many levels. In addition to having little to no winter weather, no precip, the models have been absolute garbage. It will be a good opportunity for a grad student/researcher to do a "what went wrong".

[dhweather]

6Z GFS has 0.16" run total precip for Mesquite. Dandy.

[South Texas Storms]

6Z GFS has 0.16" run total precip for Mesquite. Dandy.

But the 6z GFS Ensemble shows over 1 inch of precipitation. It's better to go with the ensembles especially in the longer-range, and those show a wetter pattern across the state in the next 1-2 weeks.

[Ntxw]

The cold bust didn't hit me as hard, I knew super Nino's had the possibilities of a putrid winter, noted 1997 and 1982 several times when EnSo rose above 2C in the fall. However I was not prepared for the lack to storms and qpf since January. What was rainwise like Jan-Feb in those two years?

[TarrantWx]

I'll be travelling to Baltimore next week for work Monday through Wednesday. That will probably be my only opportunity to see any snow at all this winter. I've been watching the models and it looks like a storm will hit on Tuesday, but it has been trending further west (on the GFS anyway) which would cause Baltimore to transition to all rain versus earlier forecasts of nearly 10 inches. Does anyone have any thoughts on the East Coast system next week? Sorry to take the focus away from Texas, but talking about Texas weather is getting a bit depressing.

[South Texas Storms]

I'll be travelling to Baltimore next week for work Monday through Wednesday. That will probably be my only opportunity to see any snow at all this winter. I've been watching the models and it looks like a storm will hit on Tuesday, but it has been trending further west (on the GFS anyway) which would cause Baltimore to transition to all rain versus earlier forecasts of nearly 10 inches. Does anyone have any thoughts on the East Coast system next week? Sorry to take the focus away from Texas, but talking about Texas weather is getting a bit depressing.

Yep, the models have been trending slightly westward. However, Baltimore still could see a few inches of snow from that system. However, chances of seeing more than a few inches appear to be decreasing.

[TarrantWx]

I'll be travelling to Baltimore next week for work Monday through Wednesday. That will probably be my only opportunity to see any snow at all this winter. I've been watching the models and it looks like a storm will hit on Tuesday, but it has been trending further west (on the GFS anyway) which would cause Baltimore to transition to all rain versus earlier forecasts of nearly 10 inches. Does anyone have any thoughts on the East Coast system next week? Sorry to take the focus away from Texas, but talking about Texas weather is getting a bit depressing.

Yep, the models have been trending slightly westward. However, Baltimore still could see a few inches of snow from that system. However, chances of seeing more than a few inches appear to be decreasing.

Yep, that's what I thought. Still plenty of time for it to trend back east (hopefully). For what it's worth, I'll be on the west side of Baltimore in Windsor Mill so maybe I'll get a couple more hours of snow before the transition to rain.

[TheProfessor]

I'll be travelling to Baltimore next week for work Monday through Wednesday. That will probably be my only opportunity to see any snow at all this winter. I've been watching the models and it looks like a storm will hit on Tuesday, but it has been trending further west (on the GFS anyway) which would cause Baltimore to transition to all rain versus earlier forecasts of nearly 10 inches. Does anyone have any thoughts on the East Coast system next week? Sorry to take the focus away from Texas, but talking about Texas weather is getting a bit depressing.

(Note there might be just a bit of -removed- in this) It really depends on where that High Pressure is, Most of the models have the High slipping East before the storm arrives, Though the models have kept the storm further south, it would seem unlikely for a storm to not become an inland cutter unless it was very weak. Right now I'm expecting a NW shift (which is happening ever so slightly) in the models due to the weakness the high leaves behind. Though a lot could still change as the storm hasn't been sampled. This could actually backfire on me as the storm comes too far Northwest and I get ice or all rain here in Ohio. As of right now I think Baltimore will see a little bit of snow and then become all rain, if you were further north in like Boston I would say you might see a bit more snow as it would be a slower transition. Of course after saying this the high might decide to stay put and the storm either goes out to see and no one gets snow or it rounds the coast leaving me dry but giving Baltimore heavy snow. (though I and some mets as well don't think this is a likely solution.)

[TheProfessor]

Lol did the 12z GFS just try to develop a tropical system?

[Ntxw]

6 years ago today, on a Thursday as it today, DFW had it's greatest snowfall event on record. 12.5 inches of snow fell at the airport broke the foot back in 1964. The greatest totals were found at the intersection of the four main big counties, N Dallas, N tarrant, S Denton, and S Collin counties. Haslet recorded over 14"

[TheProfessor]

6 years ago today, on a Thursday as it today, DFW had it's greatest snowfall event on record. 12.5 inches of snow fell at the airport broke the foot back in 1964. The greatest totals were found at the intersection of the four main big counties, N Dallas, N tarrant, S Denton, and S Collin counties. Haslet recorded over 14"

Southern Denton, Northern Tarrant and Southern Collin counties always seem the get the best of snowstorms when I was growing up(good thing I lived in S Denton) with a bit of a donut whole around DFW airport. I wonder if there is a correlation between these locations and storm tracks or if it was just a coincidence.

[dhweather]

6Z GFS has 0.16" run total precip for Mesquite. Dandy.

But the 6z GFS Ensemble shows over 1 inch of precipitation. It's better to go with the ensembles especially in the longer-range, and those show a wetter pattern across the state in the next 1-2 weeks.

And the 12Z cut me off at the knees, dropping to .08" for RTP. I hope the ensembles are right, I'm drought weary.

[Tejas89]

6 years ago today, on a Thursday as it today, DFW had it's greatest snowfall event on record. 12.5 inches of snow fell at the airport broke the foot back in 1964. The greatest totals were found at the intersection of the four main big counties, N Dallas, N tarrant, S Denton, and S Collin counties. Haslet recorded over 14"

What a day. The "rain transitioning to snow" forecast of 4" started as snow instead. And earlier than expected. About 5 a.m. at the big airport. Another remarkable thing about that storm... it never got below freezing at the airport through the entire event.

[gpsnowman]

6 years ago today, on a Thursday as it today, DFW had it's greatest snowfall event on record. 12.5 inches of snow fell at the airport broke the foot back in 1964. The greatest totals were found at the intersection of the four main big counties, N Dallas, N tarrant, S Denton, and S Collin counties. Haslet recorded over 14"

What a day. The "rain transitioning to snow" forecast of 4" started as snow instead. And earlier than expected. About 5 a.m. at the big airport. Another remarkable thing about that storm... it never got below freezing at the airport through the entire event.

Correct. A local channel the night before called for around an inch or so the next day. Kids woke me up the next morning with a couple inches already around 7 am. And it just kept coming. What a beautiful day that was. And you are right again, the temp hovered around 33-34 throughout the entire event. Huge flakes at a massive rate overcame the above freezing air. Maybe the most spectacular weather day in my adult life.

[Tireman4]

The Winter That Wasnt. Sigh..