Texas Winter 2015-2016

[dhweather]

Besides the lack of apocalyptic Texas winter storms on the overnight computer models, I have some additional sad news. Perhaps the best forecast discussion writer (and arguably one of the best meteorologists) in the National Weather Service is leaving NWSFO Fort Worth. Yep ... I learned this morning that Dennis Cavanaugh is leaving FTW. (UPDATED) He will be going to the NWS Little Rock office. We now will enter a time of mourning.

Welp! The MASTER of AFD's is gone. Our loss is Little Rock's gain. Since he is moving into the WCM role in Little Rock, he's not going to be authoring many AFD's any more.

[TheProfessor]

18z GFS has only 1 reading above 28 degrees in Columbus Ohio starting Monday and lasting till Friday the 22nd. The average high for Columbus in the month of January is 36 degrees (though it can get a lot colder) so to be below 28 for that long would be unusual for them.

[Yukon Cornelius]

All winter precip has been taken out of my forecast and lows have been raised by quite a few degrees.

[TheProfessor]

I don't think we can trust the CFS 5 week snow forecast, but it has 40 inches of snow for me in Ohio and it has a lot of Snow in Texas, all the way down to Porta!

[TheProfessor]

image posting

[Brent]

The Euro looks interesting next weekend... definitely seems to be a lot of moisture and some cold air pretty deep into the state...

[South Texas Storms]

The Euro looks interesting next weekend... definitely seems to be a lot of moisture and some cold air pretty deep into the state...

It sure does. The 0z Euro is indicating that the Hill Country could receive several inches of snow next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Right on cue with the Teleconnection Indices and the MJO fully in Phase 8.

[Portastorm]

The Euro looks interesting next weekend... definitely seems to be a lot of moisture and some cold air pretty deep into the state...

It sure does. The 0z Euro is indicating that the Hill Country could receive several inches of snow next weekend.

Wxman57 must have fallen asleep to let that get through.

[Ntxw]

66, 77, 78, 10 all had something in common. They all snowed a lot and they all had severe -AO. Oh and they are all El Ninos. I highlighted this index back in the fall to make or break the big Nino in winter.

The AO isn't as much a staple for very cold as the EPO, but for snow it is as good as any index.

So how do you know the -AO is at play? Look at the heights. Cold air masses so far have been so so at the surface but they have been colder aloft. Heights have been lower than with the -EPO shallow dense cold of the last 2 seasons. The threats have been either rain or snow, very little ice in between. Not only in verification but on guidance too.

[orangeblood]

66, 77, 78, 10 all had something in common. They all snowed a lot and they all had severe -AO. Oh and they are all El Ninos. I highlighted this index back in the fall to make or break the big Nino in winter.

The AO isn't as much a staple for very cold as the EPO, but for snow it is as good as any index.

Yep, and remember...if we want significant snow, we don't want extreme cold (lack of moisture). January/February 1978 was one of the snowiest periods in North Texas history and all occurred during a positive EPO. This 500 mb forecast on all ensembles is about as good as it gets for cold/snow in our next of the woods, doesn't guarantee you'll see snow in your backyard but the players are on the field

The similarities are striking

[Ralph's Weather]

Exciting times ahead. Amazing how this is so closely following what was expected as far back as the fall. The next 6 weeks have a ton of snow potential with the SE upper ridge relaxing and allowing the storm track out of the SW east through Texas instead of storms hooking sharply NE over Texas. Look for multiple strong (sub 1000 mb lows) over the northern Gulf and sustained cold to the north. Don't expect many lows in the teens, but temps will still be cold enough for snow (plenty of highs in the 28-35 range).

[Ntxw]

Orangeblood, the NAO daily index minima of 2010 (-2.2 in early Jan) could be eclipsed next week.

The AO for the season's minima is -5.8. We may come close

[Ntxw]

Also you Red River folks and western areas of N Tex, Nam is still hinting at some backend changeover for Sat's system. May be warm at the surface but cold aloft.

[dhweather]

66, 77, 78, 10 all had something in common. They all snowed a lot and they all had severe -AO. Oh and they are all El Ninos. I highlighted this index back in the fall to make or break the big Nino in winter.

The AO isn't as much a staple for very cold as the EPO, but for snow it is as good as any index.

Yep, and remember...if we want significant snow, we don't want extreme cold (lack of moisture). January/February 1978 was one of the snowiest periods in North Texas history and all occurred during a positive EPO. This 500 mb forecast on all ensembles is about as good as it gets for cold/snow in our next of the woods, doesn't guarantee you'll see snow in your backyard but the players are on the field

I say this every year, the arctic intrusions will deliver really cold air, one key ingredient for wintry weather, but the cost usually is absolutely drying out the entire column, which kills any chance of precip.

[dhweather]

Exciting times ahead. Amazing how this is so closely following what was expected as far back as the fall. The next 6 weeks have a ton of snow potential with the SE upper ridge relaxing and allowing the storm track out of the SW east through Texas instead of storms hooking sharply NE over Texas. Look for multiple strong (sub 1000 mb lows) over the northern Gulf and sustained cold to the north. Don't expect many lows in the teens, but temps will still be cold enough for snow (plenty of highs in the 28-35 range).

That ridge has been very strong and stubborn. As you've noted, the track of most systems so far has been AZ/NM to Texas, then takes a sharp NNE turn toward Illinois/Michigan.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Fast flow aloft with active southern stream jet will bring another short wave trough quickly into TX this evening. This trough is currently over southern AZ moving rapidly eastward.

A weak frontal boundary stalled overnight near the NW border areas of SE TX with dewpoints in the 40’s compared to dewpoints in the 50’s over much of the region…where fog has been widespread and dense this morning. Moisture advection is already in progress near the coast and will continue to spread inland today while approach of the SW US short wave will bring increasing lift to the region by mid to late afternoon. High resolution guidance struggle to develop thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the region…with the best chances possibly being centered more toward the Sabine River and eastward. Latest SPC outlook has trimmed more of our area out of the severe risk for late today and tonight and this seems reasonable given what the short term models are suggesting.

As lift increases after 300pm this afternoon expect to see a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm develop from near Freeport northward to near Huntsville and then eastward over the region in corridor of moisture advection off the NW Gulf. Some of these storms could be strong given elevated CAPE of 800-1000 J/kg over the area with any marginal severe threat being from large hail since storms will likely be elevated above a cooler surface layer. This system will quickly push eastward early Saturday ending rain chances.

Strong polar cold front will drop across the area early Saturday ushering in a much colder air mass. Highs on Sunday will likely struggle to get out of the 40’s and lows Monday AM could be near freezing for some areas. Next week brings less forecast confidence as an active sub-tropical jet stream will remain in place over the region with potential for coastal trough formation over the western Gulf of Mexico which could attempt to spread moisture back northward into the cold air resulting in cloudy conditions. Most models keep the coastal trough suppressed far enough south to keep rain chances south of the area. A potentially much more significant storm system will be possible by the end of next week.

[wxman57]

Interesting 6Z GFS. Big west Gulf low and heavy snow from south TX east along the Gulf coast. However, the GFS has temps near 40 in the snow area so it has no accumulation listed. The overall pattern (series of west Gulf lows) is right for a snow event along the Gulf coast, but the air needs to be colder.

Of course, the snow storm is in the 300+ hour range, where the GFS is not entirely believable.

Meanwhile, I'll enjoy the relatively warm winter day today...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wxman you beat me to the punch. While this may be very very far out, i think this storm will result in some winter weather for someone in Texas. The AO around this time will have fallen off the table, consensus is clear about that, so this low is something to keep an eye on. Its so far out, yes, but the Jan 15-22nd time frame i think we need to keep an eye on.

Also, for whatever reason, the air currently in the arctic isnt brutally cold. Maue posted a map that shows a massive high coming into Siberia @168 hrs. The cold basically sticks around in that region till the end of the run. Maybe, we can tap into this cold in the future.

[Ntxw]

Exciting times ahead. Amazing how this is so closely following what was expected as far back as the fall. The next 6 weeks have a ton of snow potential with the SE upper ridge relaxing and allowing the storm track out of the SW east through Texas instead of storms hooking sharply NE over Texas. Look for multiple strong (sub 1000 mb lows) over the northern Gulf and sustained cold to the north. Don't expect many lows in the teens, but temps will still be cold enough for snow (plenty of highs in the 28-35 range).

That ridge has been very strong and stubborn. As you've noted, the track of most systems so far has been AZ/NM to Texas, then takes a sharp NNE turn toward Illinois/Michigan.

That ridge pattern to our east is +NAO, and lower heights over Greenland. Storms take the path of least resistance so they bend up towards the lower pressures. -Nao is opposite with ridge over greenland (a block) and lower heights over the southeast. The past two winters and up to December is raging +NAO