Texas Winter 2015-2016

[orangeblood]

El Nino this week held steady at 2.7C. NINO 1+2 fell dramatically which means tropical forcing will center near the dateline. This is favorable for conus cold and roaring stj

Check out the MJO Forecast, complete opposite phases of what brought all the warmth in December. This pattern is ripe for cold to overwhelm!!

[Ntxw]

Dont sleep on the storm of during the 10th +/-. GFS is quietly putting down a red river to Oklahoma snowstorm and potent front behind it. All over the place.

[orangeblood]

Dont sleep on the storm of during the 10th +/-. GFS is quietly putting down a red river to Oklahoma snowstorm and potent front behind it. All over the place.

Yeah, the Arctic Front depiction looks very suspicious on this run....stalls and backs it up before the LP moves along the boundary. How many times over the years have we seen these models correct south and sometimes, quite significantly!

[gatorcane]

Well the CMC is not backing off

[Ralph's Weather]

For the first time this year we are going to be rid of the SE ridge causing things to shoot off NE over TX so now eastern TX and the rest of the South can start to get in on the fun. There is sure some mighty cold air coming down next week.

[TheProfessor]

12z GFS has some snow showers for me in Ohio through out the run. Looks like the 12z CMC has a really good snow band just west of Columbus this weekend.

[orangeblood]

Dont sleep on the storm of during the 10th +/-. GFS is quietly putting down a red river to Oklahoma snowstorm and potent front behind it. All over the place.

Yeah, the Arctic Front depiction looks very suspicious on this run....stalls and backs it up before the LP moves along the boundary. How many times over the years have we seen these models correct south and sometimes, quite significantly!

12Z Canadian has the storm further south - along I-20. GFS along I-40. Still see no reason to stray from the Canadian, has nailed this pattern change!

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z Canadian has the storm further south - along I-20. GFS along I-40. Still see no reason to stray from the Canadian, has nailed this pattern change!

A blend of Canadian and Euro seems to be the best call this winter. GFS is is very unstable right now and has been that way for a while.

[Portastorm]

12Z Canadian has the storm further south - along I-20. GFS along I-40. Still see no reason to stray from the Canadian, has nailed this pattern change!

A blend of Canadian and Euro seems to be the best call this winter. GFS is is very unstable right now and has been that way for a while.

That seems like a reasonable course of action. I know some here are favorable to the CMC in saying that it has been consistent. Yes, consistency is important. But you can have medium range modeling that is consistently wrong. I would be reluctant to bank a forecast solely on the CMC.

[Ntxw]

Cmc beat the euro on the last blizzard on the track of the ULL and surface even going out to 24-48hrs. Euro was northern and western side vs verification.

Both the Euro and GFS have recently gone through upgrades so its hard to gage them

[TheProfessor]

if the low were to be 50 miles southeast on the 12z CMC now only would I might see some snow here before I leave, but I would also see a decent snow storm in Central Ohio.

[Lagreeneyes03]

DFW made some mention of wintry precip this weekend as well.

THE WEEKEND SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BOTTOM OUT UNTIL AFTER THE RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END.

Of course not. "Cold Rain". Always.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What is the probability of severe cold entering north Texas and how cold are we actually talking about? Chances of winter precipitation? I know being a ways out its hard to tell exactly but owning a lot of livestock and especially calves, extreme cold could be very dangerous to the young ones. I'm wondering if I should go ahead and start planning or not.

[Ralph's Weather]

What is the probability of severe cold entering north Texas and how cold are we actually talking about? Chances of winter precipitation? I know being a ways out its hard to tell exactly but owning a lot of livestock and especially calves, extreme cold could be very dangerous to the young ones. I'm wondering if I should go ahead and start planning or not.

You are looking at potentially multiple nights in the teens and a couple shots of light snow. If you get snow cover then maybe single digits. Sub-freezing highs possible also. The likelihood of at least one hard freeze for you is very good. Moisture should be limited, but light snow is possible up there next week.

[dhweather]

Well the CMC is not backing off

http://i.imgur.com/y0zIenN.png

CMC often is really right or really wrong, no in between. It was on the money for the Feb/Mar 2015 wintry weather. And bless its heart, in the summertime it spins up a lot of CAT 5's IN THE GULF!!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

What is the probability of severe cold entering north Texas and how cold are we actually talking about? Chances of winter precipitation? I know being a ways out its hard to tell exactly but owning a lot of livestock and especially calves, extreme cold could be very dangerous to the young ones. I'm wondering if I should go ahead and start planning or not.

You are looking at potentially multiple nights in the teens and a couple shots of light snow. If you get snow cover then maybe single digits. Sub-freezing highs possible also. The likelihood of at least one hard freeze for you is very good. Moisture should be limited, but light snow is possible up there next week.

Thanks man, I appreciate it. Looks like I've got my work cut out for me for a few days.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble 500mb Ensemble Mean forecast for Day 7.........Winter is Coming!



Northern Hemisphere View...Could it tap into Siberian Air??

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So close according to the models from there being a winter storm in Texas. At the moment i like the Euro most, CMC, then GFS. The pattern looks beautiful on all of them though for next week.

One thing i did last night was look at analogs that are popping up over the 6-10 day period. One of them was an analog for a sizeable ice storm we had here in houston in '97.

A lot of football left winter lovers!

[hriverajr]

"LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW AN ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AFTER JANUARY 12TH. THE CENTER OF
THE COLD AIR SEEMS HEADED TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BUT WE
COULD STILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE AIR MASS AND HAVE MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES."

EWX seems to be looking at the 6z GFS....

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Gotta love the last paragraph from the NWS Lub...


OUR NEXT TOPIC OF INTEREST IS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN ALONG WITH ANOTHER WAVE...THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE A TAD
STRONGER THAN WEDNESDAY/S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS WILL FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING SO
EXPECTING TO SEE MIXED PHASE PRECIP WITH A RETURN TO ALL LIQUID
DURING THE DAY. STILL A WAYS OUT...SO TIMING IS AN ISSUE ON THE
ARRIVAL BOTH THE WAVE AND THE COLD AIR AND THE DEPTH OF THAT COLD
AIR. THAT LEADS US INTO THE FINAL TIDBIT...NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN ARCTIC BLAST...GFS WANTS TO MAKE IT COLD...EURO WANTS
TO PUT US IN THE FREEZER BEHIND THE ICE CREAM! WE WILL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY TO SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
DON/T PUT THE MITTENS AWAY.