Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TexasF6]

The 12Z GFS is definitely drier for much of Texas, with the moisture confined farther south. For Austin, it indicates more low-level dry air and less precip. It also predicts no freeze for Dallas south through Houston for the next 2 weeks.

King Euro shows a 1051HP moving down the plains ushering in cold wx into Texas? No freezing wx seems highly unlikely.

[Portastorm]

The 12Z GFS is definitely drier for much of Texas, with the moisture confined farther south. For Austin, it indicates more low-level dry air and less precip. It also predicts no freeze for Dallas south through Houston for the next 2 weeks.

Indeed ... I also noticed it forms the coastal low further offshore and to the east. It's about 5 degrees warmer too during the key periods (periods this weekend where the potential exists for freezing precip in the Austin area) than the 0z run. Considering how much the operational runs have bounced around -- at least in their surface depictions in my area -- I don't have much confidence in this weekend's forecast beyond saying it is going to be wet to some degree and much below normal temperatures.

[Snowman67]

The 12Z GFS is definitely drier for much of Texas, with the moisture confined farther south. For Austin, it indicates more low-level dry air and less precip. It also predicts no freeze for Dallas south through Houston for the next 2 weeks.

King Euro shows a 1051HP moving down the plains ushering in cold wx into Texas? No freezing wx seems highly unlikely.

Can you send a link where I can see that? Thanks.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS is definitely drier for much of Texas, with the moisture confined farther south. For Austin, it indicates more low-level dry air and less precip. It also predicts no freeze for Dallas south through Houston for the next 2 weeks.

King Euro shows a 1051HP moving down the plains ushering in cold wx into Texas? No freezing wx seems highly unlikely.

I'm looking at a Dallas area meteogram from the ECMWF ensembles and no freeze is indicated through January 13th. The operational run is warmer than the ensembles.

[aggiecutter]

Storm chasing can be very dangerous. This happened to Jeff Piotrowski Saturday night in east Dallas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc6q8nsnG_4

[dhweather]

Storm chasing can be very dangerous. This happened to Jeff Piotrowski Saturday night in east Dallas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc6q8nsnG_4

I think he was in Collin County when it happened, but nonetheless, what a degenerate to attack someone that stops to try and help you. Jeff later tweeted the Collin SO had arrested and put the thug in jail.

[orangeblood]

The 12Z GFS is definitely drier for much of Texas, with the moisture confined farther south. For Austin, it indicates more low-level dry air and less precip. It also predicts no freeze for Dallas south through Houston for the next 2 weeks.

King Euro shows a 1051HP moving down the plains ushering in cold wx into Texas? No freezing wx seems highly unlikely.

Here is where the big issue lies between the GFS and Euro, check out the discrepancies between their MJO forecasts.....

[TexasF6]

The 12Z GFS is definitely drier for much of Texas, with the moisture confined farther south. For Austin, it indicates more low-level dry air and less precip. It also predicts no freeze for Dallas south through Houston for the next 2 weeks.

King Euro shows a 1051HP moving down the plains ushering in cold wx into Texas? No freezing wx seems highly unlikely.

Can you send a link where I can see that? Thanks.

There are several great sites. I subscribe to weatherbell.com and often check tropicaltidbits as well. Pivotal is very nice too.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=sc&dpdt=

[hriverajr]

What are the odds of no freeze for Dallas and Houston for the next two weeks? Gfs been going back and forth for last 36 hours on frozen precipitation chances.

[hriverajr]

12z is still holding on for snow near Del Rio

[Ralph's Weather]

What are the odds of no freeze for Dallas and Houston for the next two weeks? Gfs been going back and forth for last 36 hours on frozen precipitation chances.

I would say very unlikely. Though there may not be one until around the 10th or so.

[Ntxw]

The pattern for delivery is decent to good. With split patterns though what might be missing is the really cold air, but that's not unusual. Eventually as climo shifts it will likely deliver. The really cold stuff (until post Jan 10) will be under the freak Kara Sea ridge. Once that hooks over with the -EPO then we roll the Siberian express. By no means is it warm now, cold in fact. Just the lack of freezes (if they dont come) from clouds via STJ

[hriverajr]

What are the odds of no freeze for Dallas and Houston for the next two weeks? Gfs been going back and forth for last 36 hours on frozen precipitation chances.

I would say very unlikely. Though there may not be one until around the 10th or so.

I was being a bit rhetorical....lol

[Ralph's Weather]

I was being a bit rhetorical....lol

I figured as much, but some out there may see the recent model runs and take it as gospel. The cold is coming and even now we are not seeing any warm weather.

[orangeblood]

The pattern for delivery is decent to good. With split patterns though what might be missing is the really cold air, but that's not unusual. Eventually as climo shifts it will likely deliver. The really cold stuff (until post Jan 10) will be under the freak Kara Sea ridge. Once that hooks over with the -EPO then we roll the Siberian express. By no means is it warm now, cold in fact. Just the lack of freezes (if they dont come) from clouds via STJ

Ntxw - if you have access, go check out the end of the Euro Control Run

Drops the hammer down towards the end of week 2, some 35-45 F below normal crashing down into the southern plains. Still in fantasy land but it fits the narrative of this evolving pattern....

[wxman57]

What are the odds of no freeze for Dallas and Houston for the next two weeks? Gfs been going back and forth for last 36 hours on frozen precipitation chances.

I would say very unlikely. Though there may not be one until around the 10th or so.

I'd say if it doesn't happen by January 2nd then the odds are 60% or greater of no freeze over the next 2 weeks.

Just checked the 12Z EC ensembles, they say the coldest days will be Jan 1-2 (low of 33-34 in Dallas). After then, steady warming to the 13th.

[weatherdude1108]

Storm chasing can be very dangerous. This happened to Jeff Piotrowski Saturday night in east Dallas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc6q8nsnG_4

I think he was in Collin County when it happened, but nonetheless, what a degenerate to attack someone that stops to try and help you. Jeff later tweeted the Collin SO had arrested and put the thug in jail.

WTF is wrong with people?!?! Unbelievable. Chaser offers help and almost gets stabbed. He must have gotten hit with a 2"x4". Glad they got him.

[Brent]

The 12Z GFS is definitely drier for much of Texas, with the moisture confined farther south. For Austin, it indicates more low-level dry air and less precip. It also predicts no freeze for Dallas south through Houston for the next 2 weeks.

King Euro shows a 1051HP moving down the plains ushering in cold wx into Texas? No freezing wx seems highly unlikely.

I'm looking at a Dallas area meteogram from the ECMWF ensembles and no freeze is indicated through January 13th. The operational run is warmer than the ensembles.

That doesn't seem very likely to me unless it's just cloudy... it ain't gonna be warm like most of December...

[wxman57]

That doesn't seem very likely to me unless it's just cloudy... it ain't gonna be warm like most of December...

There just isn't any really cold air to come down to Texas over the next couple of weeks. I agree that January won't be nearly as warm as December, but low temps look above-average for Texas. Highs will be below-average, though.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

That doesn't seem very likely to me unless it's just cloudy... it ain't gonna be warm like most of December...

There just isn't any really cold air to come down to Texas over the next couple of weeks. I agree that January won't be nearly as warm as December, but low temps look above-average for Texas. Highs will be below-average, though.

Well, the good thing is, it doesn't take really cold air to see frozen/freezing precipitation.