Texas Winter 2015-2016

[wxman57]

Last few runs of the GFS are closer to what the Euro has been forecasting. Given the GFS' long-range performance over the past 2 months, I'd lean toward the Euro.

And he is still laughing at the forecast of snow....LOL

I'd love to see snow in Houston. There's nothing else good about winter. But we don't have a chance of any ice until perhaps mid January. I have full control of the thermostat this month...

[Brent]

Last few runs of the GFS are closer to what the Euro has been forecasting. Given the GFS' long-range performance over the past 2 months, I'd lean toward the Euro.

And he is still laughing at the forecast of snow....LOL

I'd love to see snow in Houston.

Alright who are you and what have you done with wxman57?

Fitting for a 500th post too...

[northjaxpro]

Interesting EURO run posted by Brent on the previous page showing a very potent Cold Core Cut-Off Upper Level Low taking a very far south track across the Deep South and Gulf region. That is just over a week out. It will be interesting to see if the EURO can be close with this solution. It would be some interesting weather for sure if this comes close to fruition. We will find out in the coming days.

[Ntxw]

Most guidance still show significant effects on the PV. Several attempt at a split at the lower levels near the troposphere and some warmer higher up from 10mb to 1mb. Curious the forecast of the AO come January, as it's not spent any meaningful time negative really since October.

[hriverajr]

18Z GFS... well not much to say. It is continuing the trend of the 500 mb low tracking farther north, and high pressure to north getting weaker and weaker. Same old pattern.

[hriverajr]

:uarrow: Interesting EURO run posted by Brent on the previous page showing a very potent Cold Core Cut-Off Upper Level Low taking a very far south track across the Deep South and Gulf region. That is just over a week out. It will be interesting to see if the EURO can be close with this solution. It would be some interesting weather for sure if this comes close to fruition. We will find out in the coming days.

Track that far south with current pattern is unlikely. I don't see a major pattern change either.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Interesting EURO run posted by Brent on the previous page showing a very potent Cold Core Cut-Off Upper Level Low taking a very far south track across the Deep South and Gulf region. That is just over a week out. It will be interesting to see if the EURO can be close with this solution. It would be some interesting weather for sure if this comes close to fruition. We will find out in the coming days.

Track that far south with current pattern is unlikely. I don't see a major pattern change either.

Yeah, and that is the general consensus from most credible observers, at least for the next 10 days, with no major changes seen with the current pattern. There is not much to debate on this.

Also, I emphasized that IF the EURO came close to manifesting, it would be interesting across the Deep South. Storm system probably won't track that far south. But, it is the EURO showing this, so monitor the situation nevertheless, just in the slight chance that particular model run comes close to coming into fruition.

[gatorcane]

I looked at the models and the Euro is all alone with the southern track. The Euro was showing a northern track just yesterday. Wouldn't surprise me if it goes back to then in the 00Z run, we'll see.

I can't believe how much warmer than normal air there is across the United States and Southern Canada as we head into Christmas and New Year's. You got to think the large-scale pattern will change at some point sooner than later as we have been stuck in this pattern for a couple of months now and usually pattern we are seeing doesn't last this long!

[northjaxpro]

Yeah gatorcane, one would be inclined to think that Mother Nature at some point will eventually balance things out and promote a pattern change. Unfortunately, she is in no hurry to bring down some visits from Old Man Winter so far this season.

[Brent]

Maybe a start? Hasn't been consistent though so far.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow:

Maybe a start? Hasn't been consistent though so far.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_49.png

Poof in the 06Z:

[northjaxpro]

Just like that the GFS dropped that trend in a hurry.

The NON-Winter of 2015-2016 continues on......

[wxman57]

Poof? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you!

[orangeblood]

Most guidance still show significant effects on the PV. Several attempt at a split at the lower levels near the troposphere and some warmer higher up from 10mb to 1mb. Curious the forecast of the AO come January, as it's not spent any meaningful time negative really since October.

Yep, models are FINALLY depicting a pattern change to start off 2016...the El Nino appears to be transitioning towards more of a Modoki type as winter progresses (good news for those winter weather lovers). Check out where the negative Outgoing Longwave Radiation anomalies are setting up in the central Pacific, this should be the location of where the Pacific trough sets up as we transition into the heart of winter pumping the ridge up into Western Canada....

[northjaxpro]

Poof? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you!

Yeah Heat Miser! LOL...can you turn the blowtorch off across the Eastern U.S. while you are gracing us with your humour today.

[hriverajr]

6z GFS shows the central and western part of the state getting quite chilly the afternoon after Christmas. It also shows an over running situation with rain here and there as well as potential freezing stuff over West central Texas.

It also shows the 500 mb low hanging back and then kicking slowly out and weakening, being replaced by general troughiness to the west. It is significantly different than the 0z, in placement of upper features but both indicate a significant cold front and chilly to cold air over west central Texas with the possibility of some frozen. In East Texas and Deep South Texas, it appears to be a toss up.

On to 12Z

[NDG]

CFSv2 is persistent in the EPO staying positive through January and NAO mostly positive, perhaps the PNA going positive from time to time but mostly in the neutral area.
So in another words I don't see much change in the pattern other than getting eventually "cooler" across the south central US due to a stormier pattern setting up.

[wxman57]

Poof? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you!

Yeah Heat Miser! LOL...can you turn the blowtorch off across the Eastern U.S. while you are gracing us with your humour today.

The U.S. thermostat will remain at "warm" until I win the December playoff of our year-long forecast contest. I broke "warm" in the head-to-head finals. Currently, I'm leading by 114 points, which is quite a bit. After December 31st I'll release my hold on the thermostat.

Looking at the 00Z Euro - upper 70s for Houston on Christmas Day. No freezes Dallas to Houston next 10 days. GFS indicates no freeze through the first week of January (at least). Perfect!

I'm not seeing any clear signs of a pattern change that would bring Canadian-Arctic air down to Texas through at least the first week of January.

[Brent]

12z gfs

[gatorcane]

Hmmm Brent interesting. Another image that shows the GFS bringing back the wintry stuff for Texas suddenly and we are only at 168 hours now for DFW. If the Euro can show this too in the next run, maybe, just maybe this may come to fruition. Plot thickens: