Texas Winter 2015-2016

[hriverajr]

Euro is a good bit farther north with the snow - up in Kansas and as far south as the northern TX Panhandle.

18Z gfs is a bit farther north with placement of the 500 mb low

[Brent]

The 0z GFS is much warmer and basically a flood setup to close out Christmas weekend into Monday.... Even up I-35 in Oklahoma is mostly rain

Lots of different solutions to come I'm sure

[South Texas Storms]

The 0z GFS is back to a more southern track of the potent storm system across Texas next weekend.

[Ntxw]

The 0z GFS is back to a more southern track of the potent storm system across Texas next weekend.

This would at the least create a flooding rains event in the warmer sector. That signal regardless of track has been there

[South Texas Storms]

The 0z GFS is back to a more southern track of the potent storm system across Texas next weekend.

This would at the least create a flooding rains event in the warmer sector. That signal regardless of track has been there

Yep, and possible heavy, wet snow on the backside of the low.

[TheProfessor]

Though the Nino has brought the usual warmth for the Northern U.S the last few GFS Runs is showing 3-4+ inches of precipitation for the Midwest through 240 hours which is highly unusual for this time of year if it happens.

[Ntxw]

Though the Nino has brought the usual warmth for the Northern U.S the last few GFS Runs is showing 3-4+ inches of precipitation for the Midwest through 240 hours which is highly unusual for this time of year if it happens.

It's definitely unusual up there. Pwats should not be that high and precipitation main form should be snow vs heavy rain. Shows the amount of warmth that has been, able to hold on to lots of warm, moist air.

[Ntxw]

Euro is definitely going the southerly route. Aside from the wintry side with a trowal and heavy wet snow winds 20-30mph notwithstanding, widespread 3-8" of rain in and near the Red River valley down to I-20 corridor

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z and 6Z GFS are not good solutions for us. They take the storm from N Mex to MO. Not sure I can recall a closed upper low cutting NE like that before.

[hriverajr]

Absolutely no consistency in run to run surface features on the GFS. It's nuts at the moment. At the 500 mb level, that would be a very unusual track with the low. IF this came to pass, peeps back east would start jumping off the ledges.

[wxman57]

Last few runs of the GFS are closer to what the Euro has been forecasting. Given the GFS' long-range performance over the past 2 months, I'd lean toward the Euro.

[Ralph's Weather]

Agreed at it it being an odd track but then again we are in a very unusual pattern with a persistent upper ridge over the east.

[Ntxw]

Agreed at it it being an odd track but then again we are in a very unusual pattern with a persistent upper ridge over the east.

The guidance in general is fairly consistent that the trof will dig into Northern Mexico. Where and how it ejects out is the lack of consistency

[Ntxw]

Euro and Ensembles are beginning to show stratosphere Polar Vortex split especially at the lower levels near the troposphere.

[Tireman4]

Last few runs of the GFS are closer to what the Euro has been forecasting. Given the GFS' long-range performance over the past 2 months, I'd lean toward the Euro.

And he is still laughing at the forecast of snow....LOL

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro and Ensembles are beginning to show stratosphere Polar Vortex split especially at the lower levels near the troposphere.

There we go.

I think this storm will end up being another Panhandle hooker. Setup just isnt there for us yet! It will come though

[Ptarmigan]

I tried finding data for Texas in 1877-1878. There was another strong El Nino in 1888-1889. There is data out there.

You can try these.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... .day.v2.pl
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... 0thc.v2.pl

Thanks for sharing that. I did the dates for 1877-1878 DJF and they were disastrous. December has the warmth like now for the lakes, then in January it cooled a little bit especially for the southeast states. Feb then turned on another torch for the middle of the country that spread eastward.

The key to a 1957/1965/1977 type flip seems to be the EPO region of Alaska. Hopefully we can erase the Nino +EPO tendencies. It seems to be ok as long as the low heights change to higher heights there regardless of how far east the Aleutian wants to extend.

Colder flips

http://i64.tinypic.com/33o7gv8.png

Stays warm

http://i65.tinypic.com/5ur1aq.png

The 1877-1878 El Nino was very strong, especially in Region 1+2. The EPO that time was positive, which means there is troughing over Alaska. We cannot discount the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). There is also West Pacific Oscillation (WPO), which is over Eastern Russia. It is like the EPO as they tend to be correlated.

[hriverajr]

And with the 12Z GFS, any manufactured cold air goes *POOF*. the 500 mb low weakens rapidly as it kicks out as well.

[Brent]

What happened to winter?

The GFS now doesn't even have a freeze at DFW through 384 hours...

[Brent]

Look at the Euro now!