Texas Winter 2015-2016

[gpsnowman]

Yeah, December is done. But wait.....Steve McCauley mentions on his FB that some cold could be lurking around Christmas time. A warm Christmas is really a downer and I can not remember the last time we had one around here. He mentions no precip, but the day is eleven days away. Santa, can you please deliver winter cold for Christmas Eve and Christmas day? No snow is needed, just some cold air and north wind. I have been a good boy all year, I promise.

[hriverajr]

Seasonably cold right around Christmas (may exclude deep south and Southeast Texas). Fairly low heights at 500 mb. Don't expect it to hold, in and out. This will continue as long as we are in this pattern. Panhandle maybe be trace of snow. Upper mid west could get some heavy stuff.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im going to be in South Florida with family for Christmas so a warm Christmas will be expected lol. In 2009 we had Christmas there though and it was COLD. I want to say we were below freezing twice at night during the week. The wind was brutal.

[Brent]

GFS has the front coming through Christmas Eve... with temps near 70 at DFW before Christmas falling to pretty much seasonal levels on Christmas Day(highs low/mid 50s, lows in the 30s).

So we might have a pleasant Christmas while temps in the 60s could invade Eastern Canada and much of the northeast on Christmas morning.

[gpsnowman]

Seasonably cold right around Christmas (may exclude deep south and Southeast Texas). Fairly low heights at 500 mb. Don't expect it to hold, in and out. This will continue as long as we are in this pattern. Panhandle maybe be trace of snow. Upper mid west could get some heavy stuff.

Seasonably cold is just fine for Christmas. Yes the pattern is not good but I am hoping JFM are better months for sustained cold with snow. It has to be, no winter has been wall to wall warm. One front and one system will bond together and bring us winter offspring.

[Brent]

Seasonably cold right around Christmas (may exclude deep south and Southeast Texas). Fairly low heights at 500 mb. Don't expect it to hold, in and out. This will continue as long as we are in this pattern. Panhandle maybe be trace of snow. Upper mid west could get some heavy stuff.

Seasonably cold is just fine for Christmas. Yes the pattern is not good but I am hoping JFM are better months for sustained cold with snow. It has to be, no winter has been wall to wall warm. One front and one system will bond together and bring us winter offspring.

Yeah I'm just hoping for that too for Christmas... considering how warm it will be elsewhere.

One has to believe(or hope) a pattern change is just around the corner after the New Year for sure... I can't envision it being a blowtorch all winter.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Seasonably cold right around Christmas (may exclude deep south and Southeast Texas). Fairly low heights at 500 mb. Don't expect it to hold, in and out. This will continue as long as we are in this pattern. Panhandle maybe be trace of snow. Upper mid west could get some heavy stuff.

Seasonably cold is just fine for Christmas. Yes the pattern is not good but I am hoping JFM are better months for sustained cold with snow. It has to be, no winter has been wall to wall warm. One front and one system will bond together and bring us winter offspring.

Yeah I'm just hoping for that too for Christmas... considering how warm it will be elsewhere.

One has to believe(or hope) a pattern change is just around the corner after the New Year for sure... I can't envision it being a blowtorch all winter.

If it turns out to be a blowtorch all winter then every winter forecast I have seen will be 100% wrong. I don't know if that's ever happened.

[Ntxw]

Christmas Eve/Christmas will probably be changing weather from mild before to colder (seasonably) in Texas. The ENS are fairly stable with the low heights regime. Folks east of the MS will be on full blowtorch. The west will experience a much colder than usual Christmas Texas is in the transition in the middle.



The Strong-Super El Nino analog blend has performed quite nicely from waaaay out

Here are some visuals to help show my previous post. It is remarkable the persistence climo for the major El Nino's. Weak and even moderate events can deviate but the strong (ONI > +1.5C) are very consistent.

All of them featured a normal to mild December, likely because El Nino's peak around NDJ and Canada is flooded with warmth.

The post was made in late July

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The vortex in the polar region is so strong resisting any kind of high pressure blocks up there. My high pressure builds to 594 in the GFS just east of Hawaii. Thats crazy for the winter time. (I think.) In the summer we bake under 594 HP domes. If the PV wasnt so strong, i think this HP would be stretching northward into Alaska.

In Jan, i think we will get a SSW event and things will turn. I plan on ding some research on this but im short on arctic outbreaks during super nino years. Any help? Would like to look at some analogs. '97 i dont remember any at all. I think we will see lots of bowling balls come down from Canada through the four corners region if the PV weakens some. Till then, dont hold your breath for winter.

Im sorry for being anti-cold weather over Christmas though because if it snows here while im bathing in the sun and riding jet skis in Florida, heads will roll!

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:

A large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to sink southeast out of the western US the middle of next week. The trough is forecast to track across Texas next Wednesday and Thursday, causing rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. The rain is forecast to move out late Thursday. As of now, rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy. Dry and cooler weather looks to follow Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s and highs around 60 degrees. Unfortunately, a white Christmas is not in the long-range forecast for Central and South Texas.

Today's long-range forecast data does not call for any arctic air to move into our region through Christmas Weekend. However, the pattern is showing signs of turning much colder the week following Christmas. Stay tuned for more details.

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Brent]

I'm not surprised December has been warm... the surprise has been HOW warm it's been. Some places to our north and NE are on track for warmest December EVER.

and yeah... a warm December usually means a cold January or February so I'm certainly not cancelling winter... but it'd be nice to see some changes upstream that are more favorable. I think the big Aleutian low will probably help with that it just might take 2-3 weeks...

Heck all we really need is a low like this past weekend to pass south of us... we see what happened in parts of Kansas with the only cold air being the storm's air...

[Ntxw]

I remember discussing in the fall thread that 1877 and 1997 were amongst warmest winters up north. I had an inklng some folks up there would see record warmth. But many mets in the social media world kept pointing that the npac would save. The fear was the Nino was so big it would overwhelm. I thought the east coast though would see a few noreasters which they have not by now though.

[Brent]

0z GFS is warmer on Christmas again... lots of 70s for highs.

The East Coast gets a front in time but most of the south remains above normal.

this run has a big snowstorm in W TX at 300 hours(2 days after Christmas)

[WeatherGuesser]

Mild/warm for 12/23, 24, 25, 26? I'm ALL for that!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

It sure is amazing how closely webare following previous supers. The storm track should shift south as winter goes on bringing with it more cool air and maybe a shot a wintery precip.

[WeatherGuesser]

Not Texas, but since nobody else is talking about Winter,

"*NOTE: There was no measurable snow in the winters of 1952-1953, 1956-1957, and 1991-1992 so these years were not used in these statistics."

http://www.weather.gov/pah/PaducahFirstandLastDates

I'm rooting for 15-16 to be added to that list.

[TheProfessor]

I was so used to waking up in the morning and it being 60 degrees that 40 degrees felt cold.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I rememeber the winter of 2006-'07 being similar to this. I dont remember what type of winter it was but the first half of winter up till Christmas was very very warm for us and the East coast. Second half of winter was BRUTAL though. I remember reading an article at the time JB put out saying the PV would dislodge and wreck havoc for the 2nd half. Let me see if i can find that article....

[Ntxw]

2006-2007 was a canonical El Nino like the big ones sst wise. However it was a weaker one at only 1C. February was the brutal month that came after a major SSW and AO crash in January.


We should be hearing some news out of California soon, those big crashing waves, flooded canals, cars under mudslides etc. Some big storms offshore

[TheProfessor]

Early 2007 was a fun winter, I remember one storm had big fluffy flakes and dropped close to 6 inches at my house. I believe either in late 2006 or early 2007 we had a front undercut a storm and we went from a tornado warning to sleet within a few minutes.