Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TheProfessor]

Those maps are gross

[Brent]

GFS again hinting at something interesting nearby on Christmas Eve(but yeah out ahead of this is a major torch, unheard of warmth in the east)



Euro has a storm in a favorable spot 2 days before Christmas:

[northjaxpro]

Look at the mammoth ridge depicted on the model runs above across the entire Eastern CONUS leading into Christmas. Should that come to fruition, many locales will set record maximums the days of Christmas week!

I guess Old Saint Nick can slip into shorts for much of the East possibly on Christmas.

[wxman57]

Ah, highs near 80 on Christmas. Good day for a bike ride in short sleeves!

Let me have my warm December so I'll win our 12-month forecast contest (I'm way ahead now). It can get as cold as you like after New Year's.

[Ntxw]

At least the ensembles bring in low heights xmas/xmas eve. That usually means incoming trof.

East of the Mississippi oh my goodness. Record warmth around Christmas. Their warm departures get warmer. Joe B is already getting rattled by it. Just incredible warmth in the northeast and lakes coming

For some it isn't just warmer than normal, it may be warmest December and in some cases, warmest departure to any month relative to normal. Once you go +10s for a monthly stuff thats some astonishing warmth.

[Tireman4]

Ah, highs near 80 on Christmas. Good day for a bike ride in short sleeves!

Let me have my warm December so I'll win our 12-month forecast contest (I'm way ahead now). It can get as cold as you like after New Year's.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_44.png

Ughhh

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Everybody hang in there, i think the second half of the winter will make up for the heat in the first half

[Ralph's Weather]

Everybody hang in there, i think the second half of the winter will make up for the heat in the first half

That is what i keep trying to tell people. Now for those around the Great Lakes I am not sure they will ever cool down this year. Just have patience waiting on the PV to break down some.

[Ntxw]

Everybody hang in there, i think the second half of the winter will make up for the heat in the first half

We will be fine here in Texas. I'm not worried about us, it is the folks in the northeast/midwest and east of the MS. I think southeast folks will benefit from Nino climo later but up north will be hard to overcome the outrageous anomalies. Imagine if they finished December average 8-10F. They would need record cold in Jan/Feb to get back to normal for winter, law of statistics that is a hard ladder to climb, and Jan looks above normal for them.

[texas1836]

From the previous mentions of El Nino in the Fall thread, I thought this was to be expected. The North would be warmer while us in the south (Except for Houston) would be cooler.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, if Nino temps start to fall like expected, i think our winters with a weak nino are better than a super super nino like we have now. Also, the PV is as cold as it has ever been, which should cause a SSW event at some point. Not worried, enjoy the warmth while we can though.

[1900hurricane]

It's too early to get concerned about anything particular, but with such dominant ridging to our east, the next strong trough coming in may bring yet another heavy rain and storm threat. The longer range 500 mb height composite is certainly suggestive of more active weather for much of us.

[wxman57]

Perhaps we should all move back to the "Fall" thread, as winter doesn't seem to be making any appearance anytime soon?

[Portastorm]

It's too early to get concerned about anything particular, but with such dominant ridging to our east, the next strong trough coming in may bring yet another heavy rain and storm threat. The longer range 500 mb height composite is certainly suggestive of more active weather for much of us.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/test8.gif

It would appear that the storm system which will roll across the CONUS right around Christmas could be a headline grabber with both severe weather down South and blizzard-like conditions further north.

[gatorcane]

Perhaps we should all move back to the "Fall" thread, as winter doesn't seem to be making any appearance anytime soon?

You're not kidding, look at the latest GFS run that shows much above normal temp anomalies for the Eastern 2/3 of the United States and Canada as we approach Christmas.

[hriverajr]

Our hope here in Texas for some winter fun (outside of Panhandle) as the winter goes on, some of the potent upper troughs/lows will drop a bit further south. At this point direct discharges of really cold air are not in the offing from the models. Continuous low pressure along the Canadian border and lack of significant high pressure there. does not allow so. It's been the same for the past three weeks or so.

[Tireman4]

Perhaps we should all move back to the "Fall" thread, as winter doesn't seem to be making any appearance anytime soon?

Oh just yuck it up sir. Ha ha ha....My allergies are killing me with this up and down stuff...A/C in December. Scandalous. Just scandalous.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looks like after slight cool shot it's right back into the 70s for the first part of next week. Kind of depressing weather for us cold lovers.

[MGC]

Need this pattern to hold the entire winter. The west coast is getting much needed precipitation. This is just what is needed to perhaps break the drought in the west. Plus, I'm really enjoying this December warmth....MGC

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE
LOWER 70S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS IN THE
WAKE OF SATURDAYS SYSTEM. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS ARE NOTED FROM WEST OF
HOUSTON DOWN THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE
PULLED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SPREAD SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. AREAS WEST OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER. COOLER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ANYTIME SOON. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POSSIBLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS BUT NO
MAJOR CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

Come on January, February, and March...yes March, I think it will be cold the first half of the month.