Texas Winter 2015-2016

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Tireman4
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#281 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:I was looking around at various stations across the country and just look at these warm departures. In 4 days we will be halfway through December, some of these will get warmer by weekend' end. Many all time December warm records will fall at these stations.

Green Bay, WI - +13.2F
Marquette, MI - +12.5F
Minneapolis, MN - +12.6F
Chicago, IL - +8.4F
Indianapolis, IN - +4.7F
Columbus, OH - +3.6F (TheProfessor is one of the cooler warm spots in the midwest :wink:)
Philadelphia, PA - +7F
NYC, NY - +7.5F
Boston, MA - +6.4F
Washington, DC - +4.3F

And the whopper

Minot, ND - +21.4F


And to think here we were back in 2011/2012 complaining about our monthly average departures between +2 and +3s

A term some of used here "El Nino City" :lol:


As the great Porta would say...here we go!!
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#282 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:19 pm

Also starting next week pollen count goes up way up. I can already sense it in my system...mountain cedar...juniper...the hell from the hill country...take necessary precautions now!

http://www.pollen.com/allergy-forecast.asp
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Re:

#283 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:Also starting next week pollen count goes up way up. I can already sense it in my system...mountain cedar...juniper...the hell from the hill country...take necessary precautions now!

http://www.pollen.com/allergy-forecast.asp


Cedar has never really bothered me. I know I am an anomaly in that regard. :P

It is the Oak pollen that gets me every year.
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#284 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:47 pm

Tbh it feels so good to wear shorts again. and it looks like I will have to drug up when I get home, I'm allergic to just about every plant outside lol.
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#285 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:51 pm

Yeah, Pine is the worst for me..and ragweed...Gotta take Singular to get make it through my runs...
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Re:

#286 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 11, 2015 1:04 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Tbh it feels so good to wear shorts again. and it looks like I will have to drug up when I get home, I'm allergic to just about every plant outside lol.


I was recommended to take the drugs before the onslaught rather than after the fact by my doctor. Something with the histamines attaching and preventing that stage beforehand. It's done wonders for me, at the least lessen the symptoms.
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#287 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Dec 11, 2015 1:07 pm

The GFS ensembles especially the 06Z which show snow in N TX late next week. The idea of a upper low is still on the table, but the models are definitely struggling right now.
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Re: Re:

#288 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Dec 11, 2015 1:08 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Tbh it feels so good to wear shorts again. and it looks like I will have to drug up when I get home, I'm allergic to just about every plant outside lol.


I was recommended to take the drugs before the onslaught rather than after the fact by my doctor. Something with the histamines attaching and preventing that stage beforehand. It's done wonders for me, at the least lessen the symptoms.



I basically take the medicine everyday, I will just have to up my vitamins.
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#289 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Dec 11, 2015 3:19 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Yeah, Pine is the worst for me..and ragweed...Gotta take Singular to get make it through my runs...


Oh yeah! I forgot about the Pine. That reminds me every time I go to the Houston area to visit family and relatives, my nose acts up. Then when I leave, I'm good.

I'm almost positive it is the Pine trees, but not completely. Could be a combination of Pine, smog, and the stress of driving there. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#290 Postby wxman57 » Fri Dec 11, 2015 3:47 pm

WeatherNewbie wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm seeing tremendous differences in the main global models beyond about 72 hours. That doesn't give me much confidence in the forecast beyond this coming weekend.


What do you think is causing the large discrepancies?


Models typically have a hard time with a fast southern storm track.

That said, I'm not seeing much in the 12Z EC/GFS to indicate anything particularly cold across Texas. Possibly a freeze for Dallas, but not for Houston. Nothing out of the ordinary. No snow/ice. Generally above-normal temps.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#291 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Dec 11, 2015 4:46 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
331 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEEKEND OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE TWO SEPARATE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH
THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND IMPACTS OUTLINED BELOW. AFTER SUNDAY...THE
FORECAST IS LARGELY QUIET IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM
DEEPENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE SURFACE
ANALYSIS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS REVEALS A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED PACIFIC FRONT DRAPED ROUGHLY
FROM LAMPASAS TO CLEBURNE TO PARIS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY VARY BY NEARLY 30 DEGREES WITH MID 30S DEWPOINTS NEAR
WICHITA FALLS AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE IN AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD
TONIGHT...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL ACT TO PUSH THIS BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD...ALLOWING RICH GULF MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA LOCKED IN OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED DRIZZLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 DURING THIS TIME WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING FLOODING DUE TO PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTION SHOULD
MAINTAIN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WHICH COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO STRONG SHEAR IN
PLACE...AROUND 40 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER
ON SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOST OF THE
AREA IN OVERCAST SKIES AND A LARGE CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER. WHILE INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED BY
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER...THE TWO DRIVING FACTORS BEHIND DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND
LIFT DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KTS WILL USHER
IN MUCH WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES AND INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL AID IN LIFTING THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
ACTING TO REMOVE SURFACE BASED CIN. AS A RESULT...SOME SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY EVENING.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
DEVELOP WEST OF I-35 AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE
IN OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE. IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT SOME DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. DUE TO
THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND WILL POSSESS THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE SQUALL LINE ITSELF...PRIMARILY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AS
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS AS THEY
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE SQUALL LINE/FRONTAL ZONE PUSHES
EASTWARD. THIS LINE WILL BE FAST-MOVING WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LINE
THROUGH STORM MERGERS WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. ON THE OTHER HAND... COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY CAUSE
OUTFLOW TO OUTRUN THE SQUALL LINE...PRECLUDING A TORNADO THREAT
AND LIMITING WIND SPEEDS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. DUE
TO THE SPEED OF THE SQUALL LINE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER ON SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT WILL NOT TAKE
EXCESSIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO EXACERBATE FLOODING ISSUES.

ONLY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE/FRONT AS IT
CLEARS THE AREA BY MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35 AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE MODEST WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

PREFRONTAL WARMING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS
TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND CLEAR CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT
IN SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION IN PLACE AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP A SEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
.


Seasonal (Mid December) for DFW is high's in the mid 50's Low's in the mid to upper 30's :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#292 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 11, 2015 6:12 pm

18z GFS has a multi-day wet pattern starting the Sunday before Christmas through the Tue-Wed timeframe before Christmas, a quick cold shot for Christmas Eve, then a brief warmup on Christmas Day and then this dumps on Christmas Night here before spreading east after Christmas :lol:

Image
Last edited by Brent on Fri Dec 11, 2015 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#293 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Dec 11, 2015 6:13 pm

End of the 18Z GFS run is wow kinda cold with sub-freezing highs and teen lows via a great snow pack down the Plains and a 1048mb high in S KS. This is all thanks to a SSW event over NE Asia. Recent runs have shown the really cold outbreak and all are showing SSW starting next week.
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Re:

#294 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 11, 2015 6:15 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:End of the 18Z GFS run is wow kinda cold with sub-freezing highs and teen lows via a great snow pack down the Plains and a 1048mb high in S KS. This is all thanks to a SSW event over NE Asia. Recent runs have shown the really cold outbreak and all are showing SSW starting next week.


60s along the I-35 corridor on Christmas Day before the bottom drops out Christmas Night... widespread low 20s lol

:double:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#295 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 11, 2015 6:25 pm

While we wait for our first real winter threat, I thought it would be fun to do a post on one of the most epic -EPO (McFarland's signature) episodes of our lifetimes (probably most severe since 1899).

That of course is December of 1983. Can't go through a December without talking about this once in a lifetime event!

On December 11 of that year you wouldn't know that the biggest EPO blocking episode was about to unfold. Just run of the mill 500mb and a cold front. However the seeds of the event was being planted North of Alaska with arctic HP dome setting up :darrow:

Image

Then around mid month massive ridge off the west coast sends a significant front, though not true arctic in nature it was very cold for December. :darrow:

Image

Then around the 18th massive 500mb ridge 564dm began marching towards Alaska and sent down the Arctic/Siberian air mass that plunged the lower 48 into a deep freeze. Though severe this was not yet the apex of the event. :darrow:

Image

Just before Christmas the 500mb ridge "popped" over Alaska and NW Canada, the big backwards "S". 580+ close to even 590dm. These heights are something you see in the summer time near our latitude, must have been some record warmth up there at that time. Meanwhile at the surface a HP system 1064mb in Miles City, MT (lower 48 record) plunged the nation into single digits and below zero all the way down to the deep south for a long duration. :darrow:

Image

What set this event apart from others is the persistent of the -EPO. It popped and remained there for a long period of time. Notably Alaska experienced quite a mild month with very little snow or rain while the 48 plunged. McFarland's paper did not include this outbreak (because it was after the paper was written). However you can make the argument it was the granddaddy of all Mcfarland signature events.

To note 1983 was a neutral to weak La Nina year following the super El Nino of 1982. Another event that many don't know is that in 1982 El Chichon erupted in Mexico and had dramatic climate effects. It was rated VEI-5 a very major event that spewed massive amounts of sulfur dioxide. While smaller than Pinatubo the atmospheric response was just as large. 1983 went down overall as one of the coldest years (not just the december outbreak) on record for many sites.
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#296 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Dec 11, 2015 8:19 pm

That is some good stuff, Ntwx. I was a nine year old living in San Antonio when the 1983 outbreak occurred and vaguely remember the cold. If memory serves me right no winter precip fell on San Antonio during the cold spell. Even at nine I was interested in weather. If any San Antonio folks can confirm this, a quick snowfall in late 1981 or early 1982 fell and my second grade teacher let her class have an extra recess to play in the snow saying it had not snowed here in years. Anyway, the year we moved back to Dallas it snowed a foot in San Antonio in 1985. But winter 84-85 in the DFW area had two good snowfalls, one in January and early February. Ahhhh the memories.
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#297 Postby DonWrk » Fri Dec 11, 2015 9:19 pm

Excellent post ntxw. Love reading about that stuff.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#298 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:58 pm

Agreed. Excellent post NTXW. I remember our pond being frozen over down here just S of Houston in Pearland, TX at the time.
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#299 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat Dec 12, 2015 12:43 am

:uarrow:
Yes, excellent Ntxw!
Oh yeah, 1983 in San Antonio for me was a memorable freeze. During one of those intense post-frontal high pressure radiational cooling plummet nights, my brothers and I hooked up a water hose with a nozzle on the fine mist setting and set it on the basketball goal hoop. We turned the hose on and let it run all night, spraying on the patio. Went out the next morning and a large Live Oak tree limb next to the patio got some of that mist, cracked under the weight, and fell on to the frozen patio. Mom and dad weren't too happy. But we managed to slide on the patio and have our own little makeshift Winter wonderland.
:)
Both of my parents' indoor bathtub faucets froze. Really freaky! Had to pour hot water on the faucets for about 15-20 minutes before they trickled out water. COLD year!
:cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#300 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 12, 2015 1:20 am

Thanks guys :D Always fun to do one of those for the arctic blasts!

Here is a view from Himawari 8 of the big cyclone that may approach historic levels in the Bering in about 24 hours from now nearly all guidance dips below 930mb, bombogenesis. It may very well reshuffle the weather pattern across the NHEM, at the very least North America. All kinds of weather warnings in the Aleutians hurricane force winds, freezing ocean spray etc etc. Wouldn't be surprised to see an "eye" like feature with such a wound up deep system like this.

Image

Image

Rough weather and seas at Unalaska the next 24-48 hours. Repeat conditions of the Nuri Bomb for them
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