Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile a little tidbit from NWS FW

On this day back then

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December 8-9, 1898   Widespread snow fell over the northern half of the state.  Between 6-8 inches fell from Jacksboro to Haskell, and from Temple to Palestine.  Between 4-6 inches was reported from the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex.

Of course we all know what happened later that winter in February of 1899.

[Ntxw]

It looks like the AO (even if brief) wants to finally go negative soon. PNA negative, EPO trending negative in the medium range. This coincides well with the mid month pattern flip we've been advertising since the beginning of December. WPC has also upped the rainfall totals, it is centered in far northeast and east Texas with 5-7 inches of rain (can't be cool in 2015 rain event without 5+ somewhere ). The further south the storm tracks the more rain they will likely put out.

[lrak]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/?n=whitechristmas2004

Got my surf board out took off the fins and used my Kawasaki for some super fun. The ski rope was too long and I almost put my daughter into a mesquite tree So no disturbances in the long range forecast and the temps will be too warm for this to happen again, right?

[Ntxw]

In other news, bombogenesis is forecasted to occur in the Aleutians. GFS has 930s which would make it one of the top low pressure bombs for the waters there. Euro with higher resolution showed 925mb last night. Nuri holds the lowest record at 924mb from last year.



As a result (of course) the EPO is now forecasted by most guidance to go negative as that low pressure bomb pumps ridging up into the GOA which you can see to the right of the image. Not only that it also pumps heat up into the Arctic circle likely helping with the -AO

[TheProfessor]

Would hate to be Crab fishing off the coast of Alaska or it's isles as that storm goes through.

[Ralph's Weather]

In other news, bombogenesis is forecasted to occur in the Aleutians. GFS has 930s which would make it one of the top low pressure bombs for the waters there. Euro with higher resolution showed 925mb last night. Nuri holds the lowest record at 924mb from last year.

As a result (of course) the EPO is now forecasted by most guidance to go negative as that low pressure bomb pumps ridging up into the GOA which you can see to the right of the image. Not only that it also pumps heat up into the Arctic circle likely helping with the -AO

Things are very progressive right now, but hopefully this can set up a chain reaction to create some more established blocking by Christmas.

[texas1836]

Does this mean we could have another possible Nuri type system surprise us, or is it just a dream?

[1900hurricane]

As it stands right now, Saturday looks like it could be another nighttime event, but other than that, looks like it could be decent. Hopefully this one is a little closer to home for me so I can actually get out to chase if things look good.

[TheProfessor]

Closer but hopefully no long tracked mile wide EF-3 tornadoes going through a heavier population area.

[1900hurricane]

Of course, chasing in heavier populated areas is a headache!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Constantly seeing 3 squirrels run around the yard and on the roof today. No idea what that means, but maybe they are preparing for something. Def not the 78 degree weather we are currently experiencing.

[Ralph's Weather]

The GFS long range is very inconsistent right now, but the 18Z is ending with a monster Arctic air mass for Christmas. A 1050+ mb high over Montana with daytime temps in the -10s across the N Plains. And Barrow, AK is shown with a Christmas above freezing even for their low when their average is about -5F for their high.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Does this mean we could have another possible Nuri type system surprise us, or is it just a dream?

The guidance isn't showing a tanking -EPO as of now. assuming the deepening storm happens this weekend. If it does it will cause a chain reaction at least, thus the weather pattern change. The biggest thing fighting a Nuri type conus outbreak is El Nino. The very strong El Nino doesn't like sending arctic air masses. It prefers a warmer Canada. When you don't have a tanking index to interfere the background state of super Nino's is warmth in North America except for the southern US relative to normal and other regions due to subtropical jet.

[Brent]

Steve McCauley just posted this interesting stuff on facebook:

Several of you are asking about the snowfall being forecast for us on Christmas. As many of you who follow this page know, the Stat Method of Forecasting can only go out about 15 days in the best of atmospheric conditions, so Christmas continues to be just beyond the reach of the SM.

However, there are some computer models that try to go beyond this window of time, and indeed some go out into January and beyond!

For example, one of the runs of the European Model predicts there will be no snow for Christmas, and yet there is another run of the European Model that says there could be as much as 10-18 inches of snow across north Texas come Christmas morning.

[tolakram]

I look forward to my first La nina winter here... I don't look forward to spending that La nina at home during the Summer.

Let's not speak of la nina's in Texas...

Might just see if I can intern at the Wilmington OH NWS when a La nina summer occurs and escape the Texas heat.

Why in the world would you prefer it up here? There's always a chance in el nino winters that a southern storm will ride just far enough north to dump on us, but the more south the better. Grass is always greener on the other side ... I suppose.

[Ntxw]

Steve McCauley just posted this interesting stuff on facebook:

Several of you are asking about the snowfall being forecast for us on Christmas. As many of you who follow this page know, the Stat Method of Forecasting can only go out about 15 days in the best of atmospheric conditions, so Christmas continues to be just beyond the reach of the SM.

However, there are some computer models that try to go beyond this window of time, and indeed some go out into January and beyond!

For example, one of the runs of the European Model predicts there will be no snow for Christmas, and yet there is another run of the European Model that says there could be as much as 10-18 inches of snow across north Texas come Christmas morning.

He's talking about the euro ensemble runs! The Euro batch is amazing especially after their upgrade. The ensembles run at 0.25, that's about as good as the GFS OP! The actual Euro OP is being upgraded at higher resolution running in parallel. In terms of computing and power, just spectacular. The GFS suit upgrades for the next 5 years is to catch up to what the Euro started doing..5 years ago.

[Brent]

and then there's these pretty maps:

[TheProfessor]

Why in the world would you prefer it up here? There's always a chance in el nino winters that a southern storm will ride just far enough north to dump on us, but the more south the better. Grass is always greener on the other side ... I suppose.

Oh no, I meant just interning a summer at NWS Wilmington(specifically a La Nina one), they have those opportunities for college students. I actually want to spend my career in Oklahoma area, perhaps near the SPC and University Meteorology school there. That area has become a prime spot for private sector companies.

[TheProfessor]

and then there's these pretty maps:

http://i63.tinypic.com/wb731v.png

Both the the one's on the right are my favorites, 30-40 inches in Central Ohio before winter is over would be crazy.

[Brent]

Pete Delkus has struck again:



0z GFS looks interesting just north of here on Thursday, end of next week is definitely cold.





and then looking towards Christmas the pattern still looks progressive and there's a cold snap but dry weather again timed for Christmas Eve(but again the pattern is progressive) A big snowstorm occurs to the NE as the cold air comes in.