Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Brent]

The 18z GFS turns much colder next Wednesday(below average for sure) and has a lot of subtropical energy floating around... no big storms showing up but a lot of energy around so who knows how that will pan out...

On Christmas Eve it has a plunge of big time cold down the plains with some snow in Oklahoma(and a bigtime snowstorm in Kansas) but dry in Texas

[gpsnowman]

I just want it cold for Christmas and New Years. Thanksgiving was warm and drizzly. The neighborhood leaves are just now finally peaking in color and falling and something is not right witnessing this with warm temperatures. I am willing to sacrifice a warm to normal December for a heavily active JFM around here. El Nino is strong around the country this year. Will it break?

[TheProfessor]

We were trapped under an area of heavy clouds and fog the last few days, which kept us in the low 30s to low 40 depending on if the clouds cleared. It stayed sunny all day today and we reached 51 so I was able to wear shorts again!

[Ntxw]

That does appear to be an expanding area of really dry air probably associated with a high building up east of the Hawaiian Islands although I haven't seen any heights models or data, I'm just making that assumption based off that loop.

I'm sure Ntxw will have a much better idea of what is going on there.

Yes sir you are correct! This is the ridge I've been calling TPB (teamplayersblue) ridge. It's all that warm water west of Mexico, the gradient between it and the lower pressures in the equatorial Pacific helps maintain the STJ. When that dry area (ridge) moves north that's when you raise heights over the North Pacific/EPO.

During La Nina's (-PDO cold waters) you will see trofs there and thus pumps the ridge much further east...over us. Warmth.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Strong La ninas are the worrrrrst.

[TheProfessor]

I look forward to my first La nina winter here... I don't look forward to spending that La nina at home during the Summer.

[Brent]

I look forward to my first La nina winter here... I don't look forward to spending that La nina at home during the Summer.

Let's not speak of la nina's in Texas...

[TheProfessor]

I look forward to my first La nina winter here... I don't look forward to spending that La nina at home during the Summer.

Let's not speak of la nina's in Texas...

Might just see if I can intern at the Wilmington OH NWS when a La nina summer occurs and escape the Texas heat.

[Ntxw]

No we do not like La Nina's! Especially second year Nina's. 1999 and 2011 are not welcome

[gatorcane]

nothing but warm anomalies across most of the U.S. and southern Canada...you got to go way out in the long-range GFS to see some colder anomalies.

[gpsnowman]

That is one ugly looking map. The colors are the wrong color. Maybe a trip to Miami, Mexico City or Havana could suit my winter needs.

[Brent]

nothing but warm anomalies across most of the U.S. and southern Canada...you got to go way out in the long-range GFS to see some colder anomalies.

http://i.imgur.com/6namXqg.png

Hideous. Get rid of it.

[Brent]

This is better Christmas Eve morning... pretty good consistency considering this is the 350+ hour GFS

[South Texas Storms]

The trough for this weekend is trending stronger and further south across Texas based on the latest models. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front as it moves eastward across the central and eastern parts of the state Saturday through Sunday.

[Ntxw]

The only reasoning I could find for the crazy la la gfs runs is the sub 940mb bombogenesis in the bering/Aleutians assuming it is connected.

None of the teleconnections are that supportive yet

[Brent]

Not bad

[Ralph's Weather]

The end of run storm is gone on the 06Z gfs. The main thing right now is that{vthijgs look stormy after mid month. Still no blocking to sustain a big one though.

[dhweather]

0Z GFS does have it getting cold Christmas eve, a 1048mb ridge dropping in, but as is usually the case with these true cold blasts, no moisture to be found. 540 heights down near Portastorm, but no moisture to get him the snow he deserves!

[wxman57]

:uarrow: I just want it cold for Christmas and New Years. Thanksgiving was warm and drizzly. The neighborhood leaves are just now finally peaking in color and falling and something is not right witnessing this with warm temperatures. I am willing to sacrifice a warm to normal December for a heavily active JFM around here. El Nino is strong around the country this year. Will it break?

6Z GFS says lows in the low-mid 50s and highs in the upper 60s for Christmas in the Dallas area. Of course, every single run has a different solution in the long range.

[texas1836]

While we warm up in Texas, the Middle East is having Winter record breaking fun. We seem to be the warm spot in the Northern Hemisphere.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35031257