Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Euro weeklies translation for tonight

This weekend's major storm will kick off a parade of storms through the new year possibly 4 significant systems between now and then, has a storm on Christmas eve. Quiet weather should come to a halt.

No significant arctic blasts, majority will be subtropical jet storm induced chill. Our old friend the Baja low will be making an appearance.

Heights remain very low meaning systems will be quite cold aloft.


Before all that, big warm up through end of this week. And for the folks in the lakes and northeast, possibly record breaking.

[South Texas Storms]

Euro weeklies translation for tonight

This weekend's major storm will kick off a parade of storms through the new year possibly 4 significant systems between now and then, has a storm on Christmas eve. Quiet weather should come to a halt.

No significant arctic blasts, majority will be subtropical jet storm induced chill. Our old friend the Baja low will be making an appearance.

Heights remain very low meaning systems will be quite cold aloft.


Before all that, big warm up through end of this week. And for the folks in the lakes and northeast, possibly record breaking.

Good translation of the latest Euro weeklies run

In other words, the Euro is agreeing with our forecast becoming more El-Nino like again. A cold and stormy weather pattern will likely continue into January as well across the southern U.S.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I saw a tweet earlier indicating JAN as being a month full of a blow torch for the Great Lakes region. If it will be anything like 1877, as it said in the article i posted earlier, they shouldnt expect much if anything up there.

[Ntxw]

I saw a tweet earlier indicating JAN as being a month full of a blow torch for the Great Lakes region. If it will be anything like 1877, as it said in the article i posted earlier, they shouldnt expect much if anything up there.

1877 is one of the all time warm years for folks in the lakes, midwest, and northeast. NYC I believe that winter had less than 10 inches of snow. To have this kind of warmth in a period dubbed the little age, you know that Nino had some power. You don't speak of 1877, 1997 in those parts it scares them to death. 1982 was saved by one storm otherwise lackluster winter for them. 1972 they watched snow to their south in Texas and the southeast. Super Nino's are not friendly for our friends up north.

In terms of ONI 1877 comes very close to the ENSO event of 2015

[gpsnowman]

I saw a tweet earlier indicating JAN as being a month full of a blow torch for the Great Lakes region. If it will be anything like 1877, as it said in the article i posted earlier, they shouldnt expect much if anything up there.

1877 is one of the all time warm years for folks in the lakes, midwest, and northeast. NYC I believe that winter had less than 10 inches of snow. To have this kind of warmth in a period dubbed the little age, you know that Nino had some power. You don't speak of 1877, 1997 in those parts it scares them to death. 1982 was saved by one storm otherwise lackluster winter for them. 1972 they watched snow to their south in Texas and the southeast. Super Nino's are not friendly for our friends up north.

In terms of ONI 1877 comes very close to the ENSO event of 2015

Just checked out the local Green Bay forecast to check on the weather for the Cowboy game on Sunday and the temps are crazy warm for that part of the country. No frozen tundra in Green Bay this week. According to the CBS affiliate in Green Bay it will be in the 40's on Sunday. I wonder if Buffalo will have had any snow by the time the Cowboys visit on December 27th? Winter is nowhere to be found.

[WeatherGuesser]

I saw a tweet earlier indicating JAN as being a month full of a blow torch for the Great Lakes region. If it will be anything like 1877, as it said in the article i posted earlier, they shouldnt expect much if anything up there.

1877 is one of the all time warm years for folks in the lakes, midwest, and northeast. NYC I believe that winter had less than 10 inches of snow. To have this kind of warmth in a period dubbed the little age, you know that Nino had some power. You don't speak of 1877, 1997 in those parts it scares them to death. 1982 was saved by one storm otherwise lackluster winter for them. 1972 they watched snow to their south in Texas and the southeast. Super Nino's are not friendly for our friends up north.

In terms of ONI 1877 comes very close to the ENSO event of 2015

Ummm, warm winters with little or no snow are VERY welcome and friendly unless you own a plowing business or ski resort.

[Ntxw]

Ummm, warm winters with little or no snow are VERY welcome and friendly unless you own a plowing business or ski resort.

Should be a good winter for you guys then! Contrary to the past 2.

Good news is the Sierra's in California will get plenty of snow the next 7-14 days measured in feet. This is how you put a big dent in their water supply shortage, snow pack is life there in the mountains. They don't depend on massive lakes like we do. Northern California will see endless days of rain. In about 3 months the drought condition there will likely look very different.

[WeatherGuesser]

Snow out there is good. They can have all they can pile up.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like that storm in the Bering Sea could be quite Epic if the GFS is right. 923mb Extratropical Cyclones are less common than Cat. 5 Cyclones according to Ryan Maue.

[Brent]

GFS now goes out to Christmas Eve and is cold and dry then(lows in the 20s at DFW just before Christmas Eve)

We will see how it trends.

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS now goes out to Christmas Eve and is cold and dry then(lows in the 20s at DFW just before Christmas Eve)

We will see how it trends.

Heights look low and this seems to be pretty consistent run to run so I think it will be chilly around then now we just need a storm to time it right.

[Ntxw]

GFS now goes out to Christmas Eve and is cold and dry then(lows in the 20s at DFW just before Christmas Eve)

We will see how it trends.

Heights look low and this seems to be pretty consistent run to run so I think it will be chilly around then now we just need a storm to time it right.

Take a look at the Euro for late week. 850s are well below 0C even -3/-4C and this is to the west and south of upper low matures right over NW,N, and NE Texas. It's warmer in areas north away from the ULL itself. One of those crazy cold core low episodes. Shift the track about 100 miles more to the south and qpf in Oklahoma over the very cold 5000ft temps I'd take those chances. As of now the track favors qpf over the panhandle and Oklahoma which the euro has quite a bit of snow up there.

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue posted a tweet talking about the Parallel EC ensembles 45-day forecast on his site. Quite a bit of difference from member to member in the extended range. For example, low in Houston ranging from 25 to 70 around Jan 16th. About 6-7 members have snow in Houston between the 10th-21st of January. Many more have snow for Dallas during that time, some up to 12-14" around the 12th of January.

[Ntxw]

check out the warmth in the Lakes wxman57, your favorite. Scary that the strong Nino analogs nailed this from many months away on the T. El Nino > Winter up there. And that is in Celsius!



The area of colder blues in the southern rockies is our cold core ULL. Image courtesy of wxbell twitter

The Lake effect snow areas are essentially barren where there should be heaps and piles of it by now. Buffalo, NY is still waiting on their first inch after blowing past the latest record.

[Ntxw]

And not to forget the subtropical jet isn't dead. It is lurking to our south waiting for systems to tap into it. Second half of this month most guidance has it ripping some 130kts + over our region. First half of this month it was aimed at Florida but should be shifting back northward soon.

[Brent]

Ryan Maue posted a tweet talking about the Parallel EC ensembles 45-day forecast on his site. Quite a bit of difference from member to member in the extended range. For example, low in Houston ranging from 25 to 70 around Jan 16th. About 6-7 members have snow in Houston between the 10th-21st of January. Many more have snow for Dallas during that time, some up to 12-14" around the 12th of January.

Interesting you mention that date... I got a little tease and checked Accuweather earlier(yes I know), but it had a snowy storm for DFW around Jan 12th-13th. Christmas is sunny and seasonal Most of the rest of the 45 day was nothing of note really(as usual I've found it usually hugs climo close and rarely has anything extreme far out).

[weatherdude1108]

And not to forget the subtropical jet isn't dead. It is lurking to our south waiting for systems to tap into it. Second half of this month most guidance has it ripping some 130kts + over our region. First half of this month it was aimed at Florida but should be shifting back northward soon.

What is that dark area in the center, north of the STJ? It looks like it is expanding in the loop. Is that just extremely dry air? Interesting image!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think its extremely dry air in my High Pressure

[JDawg512]

And not to forget the subtropical jet isn't dead. It is lurking to our south waiting for systems to tap into it. Second half of this month most guidance has it ripping some 130kts + over our region. First half of this month it was aimed at Florida but should be shifting back northward soon.

What is that dark area in the center, north of the STJ? It looks like it is expanding in the loop. Is that just extremely dry air? Interesting image!

That does appear to be an expanding area of really dry air probably associated with a high building up east of the Hawaiian Islands although I haven't seen any heights models or data, I'm just making that assumption based off that loop.

I'm sure Ntxw will have a much better idea of what is going on there.

[Ralph's Weather]

And not to forget the subtropical jet isn't dead. It is lurking to our south waiting for systems to tap into it. Second half of this month most guidance has it ripping some 130kts + over our region. First half of this month it was aimed at Florida but should be shifting back northward soon.

What is that dark area in the center, north of the STJ? It looks like it is expanding in the loop. Is that just extremely dry air? Interesting image!

That does appear to be an expanding area of really dry air probably associated with a high building up east of the Hawaiian Islands although I haven't seen any heights models or data, I'm just making that assumption based off that loop.

I'm sure Ntxw will have a much better idea of what is going on there.

That does look to be very dry air associated with the very strong (594 height) ridge over the C Pac. That looks to finally break down by early next week allowing the full on fire hose to buckle some over the West Coast and allowing some cooler air into the CONUS.