Texas Fall-2015

[Brent]

GFS over 6" of rain at DFW forecast between Wednesday and Sunday and the CMC looks pretty similar... I think we're shifting from a wintry threat to a flood threat, although it doesn't look it'll fall all at once at least.

[JDawg512]

Didn't get to freezing at my house, was just a couple of degrees above.

[TarrantWx]

Close but no cigar on the CMC. I'm pretty confident that given the pattern we'll in, everything will line up for us at least once or twice this winter. When it does, I wouldn't be surprised to see a high impact winter storm given the availability of moisture thanks to our friend the STJ. I'm still holding out for another snowmaggedon a la 2010.

[Ralph's Weather]

Close but no cigar on the CMC. I'm pretty confident that given the pattern we'll in, everything will line up for us at least once or twice this winter. When it does, I wouldn't be surprised to see a high impact winter storm given the availability of moisture thanks to our friend the STJ. I'm still holding out for another snowmaggedon a la 2010.

Agreed that one is coming for our area at some point as the pattern is too good for it not to. This storm looks like it will set up too far inland for all but NW TX and it looks like mainly ice any way as it is a -EPO system. We may have to wait on a SSW event to give us a -AO for us to get a good event.

[Shoshana]

Didn't get to freezing at my house, was just a couple of degrees above.

One of my gauges hit 32f last night but the other didn't. Nearby weather stations did hit 32, so it was possible that it did freeze here.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the next storm system with its associated cold core upper low digging much further South into Mexico around December 2nd-3rd. All three of the dynamic models bring that cold core upper low across Mexico into Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Keep an eye on the next storm system with its associated cold core upper low digging much further South into Mexico around December 2nd-3rd. All three of the dynamic models bring that cold core upper low across Mexico into Texas.

This set of systems reminds me a lot of what has happened the last couple seasons with a Arctic front bringing some rain and cold then a piece gets left back and when it ejects is when we get our winter weather. With a +PNA and -EPO the cold seems to dam up along the Rockies and the main chunk slides to the Great Lakes. As long as something gets left out west we still have a chance though after the main show. And this year there looks to be ample moisture in the atmosphere thanks to El Nino for those upper lows to do their thing.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the next storm system with its associated cold core upper low digging much further South into Mexico around December 2nd-3rd. All three of the dynamic models bring that cold core upper low across Mexico into Texas.

This set of systems reminds me a lot of what has happened the last couple seasons with a Arctic front bringing some rain and cold then a piece gets left back and when it ejects is when we get our winter weather. With a +PNA and -EPO the cold seems to dam up along the Rockies and the main chunk slides to the Great Lakes. As long as something gets left out west we still have a chance though after the main show. And this year there looks to be ample moisture in the atmosphere thanks to El Nino for those upper lows to do their thing.

Watch the Day 8+ and Day 11+ Analogs issued this afternoon and see if some of the memorable events like December 2009 start showing up. There are a parade of storms crossing the Pacific and a re curving Typhoon that will be transitioning to extra tropical over the weekend into next week. The pattern looks rather active through at least mid December.

[1900hurricane]

This is still days in advance, but I don't think there is too much risk for significant winter weather outside the panhandle for this weekend. Guidance keeps tapering the upper air support off for the cold air push. 500 mb heights actually rise over much of the state from now to this weekend on the latest round of 12Z guidence, with the upper level energy getting caught up west of the four corners area. The cold airmass is basically not going to have any help from anything and will modify considerably by the time it digs into the heart of Texas.

This is just some personal speculation, but I think people are more likely to see a significant winter storm this year from a system where the upper level energy is driving the bus through top-down cooling. Just as an example (not at all suggesting that it'll verify), but the modeled incoming system at the end of today's 12Z ECMWF run looks more exciting to me than the upcoming system in terms of wintery impact. In my mind at least, bowling balls > Arctic airmass with no upper air support.

[JDawg512]

This is still days in advance, but I don't think there is too much risk for significant winter weather outside the panhandle for this weekend. Guidance keeps tapering the upper air support off for the cold air push. 500 mb heights actually rise over much of the state from now to this weekend on the latest round of 12Z guidence, with the upper level energy getting caught up west of the four corners area. The cold airmass is basically not going to have any help from anything and will modify considerably by the time it digs into the heart of Texas.

This is just some personal speculation, but I think people are more likely to see a significant winter storm this year from a system where the upper level energy is driving the bus through top-down cooling. Just as an example (not at all suggesting that it'll verify), but the modeled incoming system at the end of today's 12Z ECMWF run looks more exciting to me than the upcoming system in terms of wintery impact. In my mind at least, bowling balls > Arctic airmass with no upper air support.

I agree with your assessment. Even the highs for this weekend look to be warmer than previously forecast. It's definitely more of a rain/flood situation.

[srainhoutx]

This is still days in advance, but I don't think there is too much risk for significant winter weather outside the panhandle for this weekend. Guidance keeps tapering the upper air support off for the cold air push. 500 mb heights actually rise over much of the state from now to this weekend on the latest round of 12Z guidence, with the upper level energy getting caught up west of the four corners area. The cold airmass is basically not going to have any help from anything and will modify considerably by the time it digs into the heart of Texas.

This is just some personal speculation, but I think people are more likely to see a significant winter storm this year from a system where the upper level energy is driving the bus through top-down cooling. Just as an example (not at all suggesting that it'll verify), but the modeled incoming system at the end of today's 12Z ECMWF run looks more exciting to me than the upcoming system in terms of wintery impact. In my mind at least, bowling balls > Arctic airmass with no upper air support.

These sort of bowling ball cold core upper lows that notoriously travel along or just N of the I-10 Corridor have thrown many a forecasting curveball over the years. Many of our surprise wintry mischief events have come from such features in my years of watch Texas weather. This weekend was always more of a heavy rain event due to the EPAC TC making landfall near the Baja Peninsula. Way too warm aloft for anything other than a cool/cold rain except for the Higher terrain of New Mexico. Taos, Red River and Angel Fire could be measuring snowfall by the feet in this pattern.

[Ralph's Weather]

Yep, we got excited by models showing the Arctic high diving down the Plains, but as we have neared the event the PNA has gone more and more positive and even the EPO is less negative than originally expected and the AO/NAO are spiking. Eventually I will learn to not get excited by systems related to Arctic fronts. It is almost always the southern stream upper lows that give us our exciting winter weather with the occasional perfectly timed Gulf low, but those are better for the Deep South than Texas.

[Kelarie]

Well I am in Hobbs, NM which is about 5 minutes from the Texas border...this is the latest from this area

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow into Tue PM will serve to promote low level thermal ridging and unseasonably warm wx. Flow will back to sw on Wed in response to a cold mid level low moving into the Great Basin region,
but it will still be unseasonably warm. This backed mid level flow will be the beginning of pattern favorable for precip that will persist Thur-Sat. The sw flow aloft will persist thru this entire period Thur-Sat and will tap into a rich plume of Pacific moisture, possibly even some of the remnant moisture from a soon to be tropical cyclone near w coast of Mexico. In general moisture can be seen through increasing mid level theta-e values and more specifically in the precipitable water. Precipitable water values are advertised
to go sky high and by 00Z/Fri NAEFS indicates values of +4 standard deviations! Not only that, but these values will have a good chance to persist for a good 48hrs. Persistent sw flow aloft such as this
is a good set-up for shrtwv trof/s to get caught up in. Models do show that there are periods when the 3h jet intensifies. To complicate matters even further there will be a cold front (modified Arctic)
that will move into the CWFA north of I-20 by 12Z/Fri and windy, wet and cold will be a good description for areas along N of I-20 Fri AM. The front will move through the Rio Grande by 00Z/Sat. Thru Fri PM looks like precip would be all liquid, with possible exception being far n Lea Co where -FZRA will be possible
starting around 00Z/Sat. Model disagreement becomes larger by 12Z/Sat and persist thru the day while GFS keeps all precip liquid, except n Eddy/N Lea Co where -FZRA would be favored. Surface T/Td
data indicate a little room for evaporative cooling, again moreso with the ECMWF. Based on 7h temps being so warm precip type will be either be RA or FZRA late Fri night-Sat night. In general with
such high atmospheric moisture content we tend to side toward the warmer side of the solution for most areas. ATTP Lea Co and NW PB would be the areas most susceptible to FZRA and that would be in
the Fri night- Sat night time frame. With travel around the Holiday weekend and area football games a close watch will need to be kept on forecast, as it could change over the next few days.

There is good agreement that precip will exit the ern areas around
12Z Sunday followed by a cold Pacific front Monday.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I could really do without the rain. I got briskets and turkeys to smoke and lots of hunting to do!

[wxman57]

I could really do without the rain. I got briskets and turkeys to smoke and lots of hunting to do!

The rain may hold off until Thursday night from the Dallas area south to Houston. Friday/Saturday/Sunday would be the main rain days.

[ravyrn]

Hey wxman57,

I recently reformatted and don't have my meteogram stuff set back up yet. Do you mind sharing meteograms for Alpine and San Angelo, TX? I've got a friend with children at each of those places who'll be coming in for the Holidays to East Texas, and want to help them decide when the best time to travel back home would be to avoid any ice issues.

[Texas Snowman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
406 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
/FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/
ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MULTIPLE WEATHER INGREDIENTS COMMONLY
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRESENT OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN
CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO PUSH BACK THE START OF
LIKELY RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THANKSGIVING DAY MORE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND TO INCREASE AVERAGE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA INTO THE 3 TO
5 INCH RANGE. COLD AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

/WEATHER OVERVIEW/
THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER WILL BE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION BY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENT. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REX BLOCK IN
CANADA WILL DISLODGE A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. THIS STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
AND BECOME SITUATED ALONG AN AXIS FROM DFW TO DEL RIO WHICH WILL
KEEP THE COLDEST AND SUBFREEZING AIR WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE TOP OF THE COLD FRONT. IF ALL OF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...NEWLY
NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST
TO BE PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND REACH THE BAJA COASTLINE
SATURDAY WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE DYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT OVER THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY. THE UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY BEGIN TO LUMBER EASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

/FORECAST DETAILS...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IS ONLY RESULTING IN
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND VIRGA. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING...BUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES DURING THE DAY LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE AREA RESULTING IN
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST...SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS
LOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTH
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD GET TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S OVER
THE SOUTH...BUT MID 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RED RIVER.

/FORECAST DETAILS...THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY/
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH THANKSGIVING DAY. INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH OKLAHOMA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
FORCED FROM THESE FEATURES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS OKLAHOMA BUT HAVE
INDICATED THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION THANKSGIVING DAY...SO
HAVE INDICATED PRIMARILY SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY CONCERNS
TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...GENERALLY ONLY 12 HOURS
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTEST MODEL /THE CANADIAN/ AND THE
SLOWEST /THE NAM/. HOWEVER THESE 12 HOURS WILL MAKE OR BREAK THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE WITH SHALLOW COLD FRONTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE FRONT
WILL HAVE A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BEHIND IT. WHAT IS
CLEAR IS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY...AND
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SET EARLY IN THE DAY. USUALLY THESE TYPES OF
COLD FRONTS ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT
THE NAM IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE BEST MODEL TO USE. WITH THE NAM BEING
CURIOUSLY SLOW WILL SIDE WITH A CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR NOW.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND HAVE INDICATED VERY HIGH POPS OVER THE AREA. AGAIN
INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 1.75 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE AND
THE MOIST ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME SITUATED ALONG A DFW TO DEL RIO LINE. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CONTINUING OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE COLDEST AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SUBFREEZING AIR IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER AS THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
MUCH MORE SHALLOW AND SUCCUMB TO MODIFICATION VIA LONGWAVE
RADIATION FROM SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CLOUD WATER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE REGION...HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH ABOVE MORNING LOW TEMPS...WITH
40S EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A FINAL ROUND OF DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKES
LANDFALL IN MEXICO AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND FORCING
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ROUND OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO DROP
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SW TO NE AXIS ROUGHLY NORTH
OF I-20 WEST OF DFW AND NORTH OF I-30 EAST. RAIN SHOULD FINALLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS RAIN FALLING ON SATURATED
SOILS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING.

/EXTENDED OUTLOOK/
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY...BUT SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP POPS LOW.

[cycloneye]

James Spann ‏@spann · 14m14 minutes ago  Hoover, AL
Moisture from TS Sandra in the Pacific will increase flooding potential over TX/OK this weekend

[KatDaddy]

The last cool morning across SE TX until after Thanksgiving as increasing clouds and warming temps begin. Lows in the 60s and highs in the 70s approaching 80 for Thanksgiving. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thanksgiving day through the Thanksgiving weekend thanks to an active SW flow aloft and disturbances ahead of the next front which looks to move slowly across the area. Severe weather and flooding do not look to be threat for SE TX. Flooding could become a concern for portions of Central and NTX Thanksgiving weekend as the slow moving cold front combines with newly named TS Sandra's moisture from the EPAC.

[Ralph's Weather]

Besides the potential flooding and maybe some winter weather for the Panhandle this weekend there does not look to be much of anything exciting in the models.