Texas Fall-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

I got 0.96 in my gauge.

Forecast is looking fairly dry for the next 7 days. Seems like the storms are moving further north than you would think with a strong El Niño in place.

Yea, the storm track does appear to be further north than I expected, but the models are flipping a ton on things even at that range. Hopefully they can start honing in on things before long. Some runs show storms crossing south of I-10 and some around I-70 at that range. It is starting to look like we will get a Baja upper low late next week and those are always tricky to forecast.

[TheProfessor]

I got 0.96 in my gauge.

Forecast is looking fairly dry for the next 7 days. Seems like the storms are moving further north than you would think with a strong El Niño in place.

Yea, the storm track does appear to be further north than I expected, but the models are flipping a ton on things even at that range. Hopefully they can start honing in on things before long. Some runs show storms crossing south of I-10 and some around I-70 at that range. It is starting to look like we will get a Baja upper low late next week and those are always tricky to forecast.

I literally go Dejavu from reading this post, idk why, I'm hoping for the low this weekend to move a bit further south, I might see an inch of snow out of it this weekend as of right now, further north in Souther Michigan they might see 6-8 inches.

[TheProfessor]

Saw on another forum the EPO will have a major tank at the end of the month, might be a fun time period.

[Ntxw]

Saw on another forum the EPO will have a major tank at the end of the month, might be a fun time period.

It's already in the process of doing so. This is the backing for a colder (surface) regime as we head towards the latter half of TG, models notwithstanding with their back and forth.

I like to follow the ensembles in these cases and they portray the low level cold air pushing anyway regardless of the upper pattern with big HP. Heights generally rise by this weekend in the GOA, which gives us a cold front (first 30s for many here). Then a deeper plunge of the EPO just before TG.

The GFS for what it is worth is showing a true -EPO block

[Ralph's Weather]

Saw on another forum the EPO will have a major tank at the end of the month, might be a fun time period.

It's already in the process of doing so. This is the backing for a colder (surface) regime as we head towards the latter half of TG, models notwithstanding with their back and forth.

As we have seen the past couple winters, a significantly negative EPO almost always equals a strong surface high down the Plains which will almost always drive surface cold down through Texas. This year we have an active STJ over top of that cold. So ignoring the models struggling with this wild November pattern I expect that the period from Nov. 25th through early Dec will give us an early shot of winter with cold days and plenty of storms tracking over us.

[Ntxw]

As we have seen the past couple winters, a significantly negative EPO almost always equals a strong surface high down the Plains which will almost always drive surface cold down through Texas. This year we have an active STJ over top of that cold. So ignoring the models struggling with this wild November pattern I expect that the period from Nov. 25th through early Dec will give us an early shot of winter with cold days and plenty of storms tracking over us.

It's the nature of the upper pattern that gives them fits. McFarland's paper insists Ridging into Alaska and/or NW NA with zonal flow down in the conus. Zonal flow above often is shown as a milder flow from the Ocean by guidance, however as the ridging in Alaska/GOA often pushes low level cold anyway thus the shallow nature of -EPO blasts.

[Ntxw]

Also as of today, due to the rains last night, DFW joined the 50" annual rain years club currently sitting in 3rd wettest year all time.

[Ralph's Weather]

As we have seen the past couple winters, a significantly negative EPO almost always equals a strong surface high down the Plains which will almost always drive surface cold down through Texas. This year we have an active STJ over top of that cold. So ignoring the models struggling with this wild November pattern I expect that the period from Nov. 25th through early Dec will give us an early shot of winter with cold days and plenty of storms tracking over us.

It's the nature of the upper pattern that gives them fits. McFarland's paper insists Ridging into Alaska and/or NW NA with zonal flow down in the conus. Zonal flow above often is shown as a milder flow from the Ocean by guidance, however as the ridging in Alaska/GOA often pushes low level cold anyway thus the shallow nature of -EPO blasts.

This seems to add up to possible icing issues late next week if things come together as expected. Late TDay week is a terrible time for that so hopefully it stays above freezing at the surface or we get more blocking than expected and the cold is deeper. Still way too far out to know those details. I am just happy to have something to watch.

[Ntxw]

This seems to add up to possible icing issues late next week if things come together as expected. Late TDay week is a terrible time for that so hopefully it stays above freezing at the surface or we get more blocking than expected and the cold is deeper. Still way too far out to know those details. I am just happy to have something to watch.

I'm not certain about storms, it's kind of hard to tell this far out but it's usually around when you change air masses. I just don't doubt the ability of the EPO to push cold, if says cold it will probably get cold...it never fails. Unless they are out to lunch and it ends up +EPO but that appears unlikely with strong Ensemble support

[weatherdude1108]

As we have seen the past couple winters, a significantly negative EPO almost always equals a strong surface high down the Plains which will almost always drive surface cold down through Texas. This year we have an active STJ over top of that cold. So ignoring the models struggling with this wild November pattern I expect that the period from Nov. 25th through early Dec will give us an early shot of winter with cold days and plenty of storms tracking over us.

It's the nature of the upper pattern that gives them fits. McFarland's paper insists Ridging into Alaska and/or NW NA with zonal flow down in the conus. Zonal flow above often is shown as a milder flow from the Ocean by guidance, however as the ridging in Alaska/GOA often pushes low level cold anyway thus the shallow nature of -EPO blasts.

This seems to add up to possible icing issues late next week if things come together as expected. Late TDay week is a terrible time for that so hopefully it stays above freezing at the surface or we get more blocking than expected and the cold is deeper. Still way too far out to know those details. I am just happy to have something to watch.

Ah yes. The image of Texans' dreams. But this is after TG week.

[Ntxw]

I got 0.96 in my gauge.

Forecast is looking fairly dry for the next 7 days. Seems like the storms are moving further north than you would think with a strong El Niño in place.

I've seen over the past week (at least here) rain falling when rain was not supposed to fall. Stringent on the subtropical jet. In fact I got about just as much rain Sunday evening as I did last night. Don't sleep on invest 90E, another newly designated invest in the EPAC expected to recurve and cross paths. It is likely to further develop.



I don't know if it's from this invest but nearly all global guidance predicts a tropical storm to Hurricane in this area by this weekend moving towards Baja then Texas

[CaptinCrunch]

A couple things to note, the Ice pack in the arctic circle has grown faster this year than years past. This has translated to faster and higher snow pack across all of Alaska and most of northern Canada. The early forecast for those regions were above avg temps and above avg precip for the coming winter, however the over all temperature has actually been colder than forecasted so far.

November 16th 2014


November 16th 2015


North America November 16th 2014


North America November 16th 2015


As with the U.S. the Rockies are seeing higher snow totals this early season which also bolds well for sustaining arctic air as it pushes south this winter. It took a while for El Nino to get it's act together, but the results can clearly be seen in the above images. It's not your average El Nino, so I wouldn't expect your average El Nino results, think bigger.

[Ntxw]

A couple things to note, the Ice pack in the arctic circle has grown faster this year than years past. This has translated to faster and higher snow pack across all of Alaska and most of northern Canada. The early forecast for those regions were above avg temps and above avg precip for the coming winter, however the over all temperature has actually been colder than forecasted so far.

Actually most of North America has been very warm, record warmth. From far northern Canada down to the gulf coast east of the Rockies for all of November so far. Colder than average has been southern Alaska down the Pacific coast of Canada and the western US. Very warm anomalies have centered the upper plains centered in Minnesota. This is your typical canonical El Nino for winter but it isn't normal for November though. The high snowfall areas is because there seems to be ample moisture in the atmosphere to produce snow (warmer than normal in Canada is still cold enough for snow) where it is typically drier. Probably residual effects of El Nino pumping copious moisture into the water budget of the globe. It's not a coincidence high snowfall years are El Nino's.

Through the first half of Nov to date



However this will change the second half of November

[Ralph's Weather]

The early snow growth before the Arctic air gets let loose should help keep the surface cold. The GFS shows additional snow growth filling in the Northern Plains and South Central Canada Thanksgiving week. That will help even more than the current snow that is primarily to over the West.

[vbhoutex]

Frontal passage at my house in W. Houston brought gusts to 36mph torrential rain and a 20 degree drop in less than 5 minutes. We have now gone from 76f an hour ago to 52f.

[Ntxw]

GFS for Thanksgiving day at 500mb. There's probably a massive surface cold front somewhere



This was the Nuri blast , Ridging was a little deeper into Alaska/NW Canada but not too far away

[Brent]

12z GFS says temperatures will not get out of the 40s around N TX this weekend. Front plows through around daybreak Saturday. Close call for a freeze/frost on Sunday morning.

Looking at Thanksgiving it has a front moving through Oklahoma in the afternoon with temperatures in the 70s around DFW but 30s in Kansas.

Highs on Black Friday this run verbatim is mid 40s as the front moves through Thanksgiving Night.

As for rain it has widespread light rain on Wednesday then the rain clears out for Thanksgiving and the front Thu/Fri is dry this run til it gets down into C TX where it sparks some light rain.

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS for Thanksgiving day at 500mb. There's probably a massive surface cold front somewhere
This was the Nuri blast , Ridging was a little deeper into Alaska/NW Canada but not too far away

Pretty similar look. I went and compared surface temps in the source region for that system (Alaska and NW Canada around 11/5/14) to now and it is colder up there now and snow cover is/will be better on the Plains so the potential is certainly there for a late month cold blast.

[Ntxw]

Example of zonal -EPO blast from the CMC. 500mb heights are high thinking zonal flow is warm but look at the surface, the freeze line is coming from Oklahoma. Models just thinks the upper flow blasts everything east but in reality and the surface HP shoves it due south.






This if it were to occur would be an Arctic outbreak TG through that weekend

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Near identical look to it. Thanks for the posts Ntx. Is the VERY fast snow advance in Siberia adding to the much colder troposphere temps up there? Seems to be a big deal to some. If my amateur knowledge is correct, this could lead to a SSW in 6 weeks or so. Not sure about the timing.

Front came through here and like my Houston comrade said, temp dropped very fast. Went from 78 to 58 in a heartbeat. I never actually saw it in the 50's. Getting blustery showers now. Will take it!