Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

Don't worry too much about surface depictions of the models for late thanksgiving week. Aside from being far out, -EPO has a tendency shove down shallow air masses

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thats hilarious. I think we can expect a cold Turkey day. Possible '93 repeat? I havent looked at the setup similarities at all, but i think Texas can expect a wild weather week.

[CaptinCrunch]

I just want to be able to light the fireplace on Thanksgiving, kick back watch football, stuff my face, and nap till the next game comes on...lol

[Tireman4]

I just want to be able to light the fireplace on Thanksgiving, kick back watch football, stuff my face, and nap till the next game comes on...lol

I just want to win a game..sigh...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS showing a 1053 MB high coming down across the border. Remember folks, this is over 300 hours away on the GFS

[BigB0882]

Do you guys think SELA is going to get in on the cold this year? It seems the last few years the ridge has parked in a position that has kept the coldest air just to our west. We would cool down but be a good bit warmer than just 3 hours due West. I hope that doesn't happen again, we need the cold every chance we can since it seems there will be plenty of moisture this year.

[CaptinCrunch]

I just want to be able to light the fireplace on Thanksgiving, kick back watch football, stuff my face, and nap till the next game comes on...lol

I just want to win a game..sigh...

I'm sorry, you must be a Cowboy fan? lol

[Tireman4]

I just want to be able to light the fireplace on Thanksgiving, kick back watch football, stuff my face, and nap till the next game comes on...lol

I just want to win a game..sigh...

I'm sorry, you must be a Cowboy fan? lol

Yep. Since 1971...proud but hurting...LOL

[Kalrany]

...

I just want to win a game..sigh...

I'm sorry, you must be a Cowboy fan? lol

Yep. Since 1971...proud but hurting...LOL

Can sympathize. My hubby and I both grew up watching the Lions lose as part of the Thanksgiving holiday. At this point, it's pretty much the tradition.

[KatDaddy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162031Z - 162130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. ONE OF THESE STORMS IN
FAYETTE/LEE COUNTIES IN TEXAS HAS ACQUIRED MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN THE
PAST HOUR. THIS CONVECTION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...LOW LCL/S...AND
SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION IN STRONGER
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. NEARBY 88D WIND PROFILERS AT GRK AND EWX
INDICATE 300-400 M2/S2 0-3 KM HELICITY...FURTHER SUPPORTING AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. WEAK/SUBTLE FORCING SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ISOLATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EVENING...BUT
THE LACK OF STRONG CAPPING ALONG WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA AND SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
WIND/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO
HOURS...AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

[Tireman4]

59
FXUS64 KHGX 161735
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS ARE STILL A MESS WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-10 STILL IN IFR
TERRITORY. ANTICIPATE THESE TO LIFT INTO THE 1500-3000FT RANGE IN
THE NEXT 3 HOURS...BUT DROP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AROUND AND MAY NEED TO AMEND TAFS
IN SHORT TERM IF THEY LOOK LIKE THEY`LL IMPACT AN INDIVIDUAL
AIRPORT. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55 KT AROUND
2000FT LATER THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT`LL
BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND ON TUE. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME LLVL WIND
SHEAR IN FUTURE TAFS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME EMBEDDED INDIVIDUAL STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
DEVELOPING LINE OF TSTMS TO OUR NW WILL IMPACT CLL AROUND ROUGHLY
12Z, INLAND I-45 TERMINALS 15-19Z, & COASTAL SITES 17-22Z. STRONG
WINDS PRIMARY HAZARD WITHIN THE LINE ITSELF. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SE TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND AT 1030 AM THE FRONT WAS APPROACHING CROCKETT. AN
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPPER AIR LEVELS SHOWED THAT SE TEXAS WAS
UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT ALTHOUGH AT 200 AND 300 MB THE BEST
DIVERGENCE APPEARED TO BE TO THE NORTH. THE BEST MOIST AXIS WAS
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT 850 AND 700 MB. LIKE
THE CURRENT HIGH RES MODELS WHICH ONLY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MADE A FEW TWEAKS SINCE ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKED MORE REASONABLE.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 64 66 47 71 / 60 80 100 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 70 75 51 73 / 40 50 100 20 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 72 75 56 73 / 20 30 90 40 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models still supporting general 2-4" rain over E TX.
GFS ensembles still a 1040mb high and a stormy southern stream. That sounds wintery to me, hopefully we get some depth to the cold because an ice storm is not what we need late Thanksgiving week.

[weatherdude1108]

Latest discussion from EWX. I may or may not come in late to work tomorrow to wait for it to pass. Wouldn't be too much fun to drive in a squall line if it's dark outside, especially if other drivers are trying to navigate it.


FXUS64 KEWX 162126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...MID LEVEL FORCING HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA MID AFTERNOON.

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND INITIALLY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT AND FORCING MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING...A SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. MODELS THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SHIFT IN THE
FORCING...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND THE SLIGHT RISK FOR TONIGHT FROM SPC
HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...AND
REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.

NEVERTHELESS...STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
50KT H85 LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL FEED VERY
RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR MID NOVEMBER.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
I-35 CORRIDOR AND EXPAND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-8 AM TUE MORNING...DURING THE MORNING COMMUTING HOURS. A BUOYANT
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1200 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN THE PRE-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT APPROACH 50 KTS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS SHOULD A MORE ORGANIZED QLCS
DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. A SECONDARY AND MUCH LOWER
THREAT (ALTHOUGH NOT ZERO) WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
IF ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE STORMS DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL PARAMETERS
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS AND A LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL
FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL EXIST. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL
IMPACT AREAS EAST OF I-35 BETWEEN 7-10 AM.

REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BY 06-12Z TUE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.8-2 INCHES ARE APPROACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES
FOR MID NOVEMBER. FORTUNATELY WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM THE
OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW...HOWEVER A QUICK 1-2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO
LESS THAN 1/2 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEST OF I-35 TO THE
RIO GRANDE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE TUE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE...
WHERE RH VALUES ARE LOWEST...WINDS GUSTY AND MUCH LESS RAINFALL
FALLS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNINGS...WITH
40S ELSEWHERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FROST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BOTH MORNINGS. A ZONAL MID AND
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS THU-FRI ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETTING LATE THU INTO FRI. LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY ALONG AND
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

[Portastorm]

I'm fairly confident the squall line will be through our area by 7 a.m. Now if you're normally out and driving around 5 or 6 am ... yeah, that's a different story! Going to be a noisy line of storms which will blow through fairly quickly but make their presence felt.

Off topic, my condolences to Tireman and his Cowboys fans ... and the Lions fan ... but I have you all beat. I'm a Browns fan! Now, there's a team that really sucks.

[TarrantWx]

Ntxw, what's your take on this? Could it enhance the cold for the Thanksgiving week storm or would any potential impacts be felt after that?

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

I'm fairly confident the squall line will be through our area by 7 a.m. Now if you're normally out and driving around 5 or 6 am ... yeah, that's a different story! Going to be a noisy line of storms which will blow through fairly quickly but make their presence felt.

Off topic, my condolences to Tireman and his Cowboys fans ... and the Lions fan ... but I have you all beat. I'm a Browns fan! Now, there's a team that really sucks.

That is too funny! Thank you for that laugh of the day.
I usually leave around 6:50am. But I did used to commute from San Antonio for over a year, leaving just prior to 6am. But not anymore thankfully, especially if there is a severe weather threat!

I am partial to college football myself vs. pro, specifically the Scarlet and the Black of Lubbock. So I can't compete.

[Ralph's Weather]

Ntxw, what's your take on this? Could it enhance the cold for the Thanksgiving week storm or would any potential impacts be felt after that?

I am not an expert on that area, but to me it looks like this storm is progged to dissipate instead of becoming a pattern altering storm. It will have to watched though as we Nuri about this time last year. (Today is the anniversary of last year's first snow.)

[TarrantWx]

Ntxw, what's your take on this? Could it enhance the cold for the Thanksgiving week storm or would any potential impacts be felt after that?

I am not an expert on that area, but to me it looks like this storm is progged to dissipate instead of becoming a pattern altering storm. It will have to watched though as we Nuri about this time last year. (Today is the anniversary of last year's first snow.)

Thanks. I didn't pull up the models myself to see what happens. I just got excited over the prospect of a major W Pac typhoon recurving into the mid-lats this time of year.

[WeatherNewbie]

It is interesting to me. The radar is blank in Carrollton right now, but it is most definitely raiding outside my window. Not sprinkles, but actual rain drops.

[TarrantWx]

It is interesting to me. The radar is blank in Carrollton right now, but it is most definitely raiding outside my window. Not sprinkles, but actual rain drops.

What radar are you using? I see radar echoes over Carrollton, albeit light, on the NWS base reflectivity.