Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

Anyone notice the area of disturbed weather in the EPAC (STJ associated) has been designated as invest 99E? I don't think it will amount to anything strong or even a TS but does show the tropical connection for the next few days.

[Shoshana]

I know everyone is all excited about Thanksgiving week ... but I am seeing forecasts of severe weather overnight Monday.

Unfortunately,because of previous cases of out of control hype, I can't figure out quite what is really expected for Austin overnight Monday.

Rain/wind? Hail? Possibly tornadoes? I don't know. You would think with more tools we would get better forecasts but it seems like even the local forecasts are less reliable.

The big show will be a squall line which will roll through town somewhere between 4-8 am Tuesday. Some hail and gusty winds (straight line wind damage potential) most likely will make up our serving of "severe." As EWX mentions there could be some rogue super cells popping up ahead of the squall line in the unstable air ... but larger threat of that appears to be to our northwest.

We'll probably see a quick 1" or so of rain.

Thank you!

[hfriverajr]

"Ntxw"]Anyone notice the area of disturbed weather in the EPAC (STJ associated) has been designated as invest 99E? I don't think it will amount to anything strong or even a TS but does show the tropical connection for the next few days.

I noticed that little swirl earlier today

[weatherdude1108]

I know everyone is all excited about Thanksgiving week ... but I am seeing forecasts of severe weather overnight Monday.

Unfortunately,because of previous cases of out of control hype, I can't figure out quite what is really expected for Austin overnight Monday.

Rain/wind? Hail? Possibly tornadoes? I don't know. You would think with more tools we would get better forecasts but it seems like even the local forecasts are less reliable.

The big show will be a squall line which will roll through town somewhere between 4-8 am Tuesday. Some hail and gusty winds (straight line wind damage potential) most likely will make up our serving of "severe." As EWX mentions there could be some rogue super cells popping up ahead of the squall line in the unstable air ... but larger threat of that appears to be to our northwest.

We'll probably see a quick 1" or so of rain.

Thank you!

Yes. Thank you Portastorm! I have been stressing over this since they began talking about it last week (memories of Memorial Day and October 30th). It looked like the main low started in Oklahoma on the Thursday GFS runs, and the latest shows the low in Nebraska. I would think a lot of the dynamics would head more to the north based on that northern shift. I am hoping anyway.

[BigB0882]

Can anyone provide a link to the GFS data for a given city? I think it lists out-put in 3 hour increments for the first 10 days or so of the forecast. I know the code for my city is BTR. I used to have this bookmarked but I have a different laptop than last winter and it is always something I enjoy looking at during the winter. I'd appreciate it!

[TheAustinMan]

Can anyone provide a link to the GFS data for a given city? I think it lists out-put in 3 hour increments for the first 10 days or so of the forecast. I know the code for my city is BTR. I used to have this bookmarked but I have a different laptop than last winter and it is always something I enjoy looking at during the winter. I'd appreciate it!

Perhaps you're looking for the following link (even better, it goes to 16 days!): http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBTR

Cheers,
TheAustinMan

[Ntxw]

The waves of light to moderate rain keeps coming across DFW. Another one now, the Airport is about a quarter of an inch away from the 50+ annual rainfall club. I was looking at the HRRR earlier this morning, nada. Even the GFS was just a few hundredths of an inch but may actually turn out to be half inch to an inch total this evening. #SubtropicalJet

[BigB0882]

Can anyone provide a link to the GFS data for a given city? I think it lists out-put in 3 hour increments for the first 10 days or so of the forecast. I know the code for my city is BTR. I used to have this bookmarked but I have a different laptop than last winter and it is always something I enjoy looking at during the winter. I'd appreciate it!

Perhaps you're looking for the following link (even better, it goes to 16 days!): http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBTR

Cheers,
TheAustinMan

That was it! Thanks so much!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the GFS data, its showing @ 925 MB winds of 54 MPH out of the south. Is it fair to assume we could expect gusts this high? Monday night into Tuesday has winds at this level over 40MPH over that period.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the GFS data, its showing @ 925 MB winds of 54 MPH out of the south. Is it fair to assume we could expect gusts this high? Monday night into Tuesday has winds at this level over 40MPH over that period.

925mb heights is about 2500ft so a little ways up there. 10m surface winds looks to be about 15-20mph sustained (not counting storm gusts). Though that high of a winds from the south at that level may signal low level jet which is usually 25-50knots

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah thats a bit too high. Looks like the low level jet no doubt. Going to be a breezy one the next couple days.

[KatDaddy]

The well advertised severe weather event to unfold across Central and NW TX this afternoon and then develop E and SE tonight across South Central, SE and E TX. Thunderstorms near the warm front across S Central and SE TX could have brief spin ups due to low level helicity this afternoon however the real concern for SE TX arrives after midnight through Tuesday afternoon. Helicity peaks between 3AM and noon with the highest threat for tornadoes ahead of the front. As the front arrives the threat will transition to damaging straight line winds as well as heavy rains. If we get a little heating tomorrow the severe weather threat will increase significantly. The severe weather and heavy rains look to push into LA between 4PM and 8PM tomorrow. A rough 12-24 hours on the way so be weather aware from this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Strong storm system approaching TX.

Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall likely tonight and Tuesday.

A powerful upper level low pressure system over the SW US will begin to move eastward today and tonight and into the central plains on Tuesday. Strong height falls are in progress over NW TX this morning and are helping to develop surface low pressure. This low pressure will deepen today as it tracks NNE and draws a strong old front southward across W TX. Over SE TX a maritime warm front has formed off the upper TX coast with a moist a tropical air mass south of this boundary and modified tropical air mass inland over SE TX. Low clouds and fog have developed north of the warm front and this will likely prevent a quick northward movement of the boundary today.

Upper winds are starting to diverge over SE TX and water vapor images show a large mass of moisture and likely a couple of disturbances heading out of MX toward TX. Expect increasing lift coupled with the warm front to begin to develop showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Backed low level winds (ESE) near/just north of the warm front become SSW winds around 4000 ft yielding good low level turning. Instability is weak with the cloud cover and fog, but wind shear is impressive so will need to watch any storms that develop near the warm front this afternoon and evening for a tornado threat.

Late Tonight/Tuesday:
Wind profiles really increase in the 300am to noon time period with strong turning over the warm sector. High resolution models now showing more development of storms (possibly supercells) in the warm sector air mass and these storms will have a higher tornado potential. Linear forcing on surging cold front will develop a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms across C TX between midnight and 600am with this line moving east across SE TX on Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours. Severe threat will transition from a higher tornado threat in the morning hours to damaging straight lines in the mid morning to mid afternoon hours. Current forecast as the front through much of the area by early to mid afternoon, but any slowing of the boundary and/or greater heating toward 80 degrees on Tuesday will result in a much more significant severe weather/tornado threat. Modest instability is the only factor keeping things from really getting out of control on Tuesday as wind profiles will be scary.

Moisture really ramps up this evening with surge of tropical air mass south of the warm front pouring into the region around sunset. Moisture level reach near record levels by late this evening and expect excessive rainfall in any of the stronger storms. A little more worried with models showing more warm sector development overnight now than yesterday which could add up rainfall totals prior to the main squall line reaching the area. Will maintain a solid 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 3-4 inches…much of which could fall in an hour or 2. Street flooding will be the main threats with the high hourly rainfall rates.

Cool and dry conditions for the rest of the week with potentially cold and stormy weather returning for the week of Thanksgiving.

[weatherdude1108]

The slight risk did include south central Texas all the way down to around Pleasanton in the 12:30am update, with an enhanced risk around DFW.
In the 7am update, south central Texas, including Austin/San Antonio area are now in the Marginal Risk category, and DFW is in the slight risk.



It scoots east into Tuesday.

[Ntxw]

A little off topic a bit, but history is being made with the El Nino. This week's Nino 3.4 hit 3C anomaly. That is the highest ever in the most important Nino region toppling 1997. In terms of absolute temperatures too 30C and 29C is the warmest the central equatorial Pacific east of the dateline has ever been in recorded history.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z NAM suggests the upper trough may be a bit slower ejecting out of New Mexico/West Texas meaning that the progression of the squall line could be a bit slower and later in the afternoon/early evening across SE and East Texas. The NAM also suggests a bit more of a neutral tilted trough that raises an eyebrow concerning the severe potential we may see across the Region.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like we are in for a stormy couple days across the state with some flooding especially east of I-35. Maybe the state gets its first snow tonight around Dalhart and maybe over the Guadalupe Mountains.

[Ralph's Weather]

It seems crazy that the models show temps dropping as low as the upper 30s tomorrow as the storms pass over E TX. Guess the dry line is going to move really far east. I think around 50 would be more reasonable, but who knows.

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD this morning:

FXUS64 KHGX 161051
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL ON FOR MAINLY TUESDAY.

SOME VIRGA MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MAY GET SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OUT OF IT BUT MORE LIKE A TRACE OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S INLAND AND 65-71 COAST. TEMPERATURES
RISING IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. 24 HR TEMPERATURE CHANGES OF 4 TO
11 DEGREES FROM YESTDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. COASTAL TROUGHING
APPARENT ON 08Z ANALYSIS AND WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE 20-40NM
OFFSHORE LIFTING NORTHWARD. EXPECT THAT WARM FRONT TO SLOW AS IT
NEARS THE COAST THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TODAY
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT MAINLY AFTER 9 AM...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM BAY CITY TO GROVETON THIS AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES
FROM AMDAR/MODELS/UA SHOWING THE BEGINNING OF A STRONGLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE EASTERLY AT THE SURFACE AND 30-35KTS AT 4KFT FROM THE
SSW. ALTHOUGH THE CAPE MAY BE SLIM TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THE
WIND PROFILES WILL POSE AN ISSUE WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY. CAN`T
RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP FUNNEL CLOUD OR EVEN A TORNADO MAINLY
NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL BRING THE UPPER JET INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE HILL COUNTRY
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM ARRIVING IN SETX PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 6 AM
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT THOUGH SETX WILL BE UNDER INCREASING LL FLOW
WITH INCREASING HELICITY WITH SOARING P.W. OF 1.8-2.2" AND THOUGH
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BETWEEN 800-700MB THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS BROADSCALE LIFT AND BY MIDNIGHT THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE...BOTH DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL BE THE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT
STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE UNDISTURBED VERY MOIST
AIRMASS. HELICITIIES SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 3 AM AND NOON FOR MOST
AREAS WITH THIS AS THE CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHEST THREAT. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT THE WIND PROFILES TO BECOME
MORE LINEAR AND THREAT TRANSITIONS TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. FAST MOVING STORMS AND LINEAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO EVERYONE GETTING 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE 74-75
DEGREE RANGE BUT IF IT GETS MUCH WARMER THAN 78 THE CAPE GETS FAR
MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY. STORMS SHOULD SWING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE EASTERN
AREAS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM...POSSIBLY SOONER. RAIN CHANCES FALL
DRASTICALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
QUICKLY FLOWING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON TAP WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S DURING THE SAME
PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN NEXT MONDAY AND HAVE TRENDED
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF THINKING THAT GIVEN THE
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE ZONAL THAT ANY FRONT SETTLING THROUGH
THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN WITH RETURN FLOW UNDERWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY.
45

&&

.MARINE...

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY/TONIGHT (DESPITE A
BRIEF LULL THIS MORNING). HAVE EXPANDED/TWEAKED WITH THE TIMING OF
THE SMALL CRAFT CAUTION FLAGS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THEN BY LATE TONIGHT..AN UPGRADE TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE BAYS. THESE VERY STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE HELPING TO FUEL POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SE TX...BUT THIS ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF TUES. IN
THE MEAN TIME...WIDELY SCT STREAMER SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OF NOTE REGARDING TIDES...PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT/
AROUND HIGH TIDE. PROJECTIONS OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG
WITH INCREASED WAVE RUN UP (FROM THE STRONG WINDS)...COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AROUND GALVESTON BAY. THERE MAY
BE SIMILAR ISSUES TUES MORNING WITH THAT HIGH TIDE AS WELL.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM) WILL
BRING LIGHT/MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID MISSIS-
SIPPI VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP A MOSTLY E/NELY FLOW IN PLACE THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 41

&&

.AVIATION...

MESSY PATTERN THIS MORNING AS WAA BEGINS TO RAMP UP. HOWEVER BEFORE
IT REALLY SETS UP...IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL. ISO STREAMER SHRAS/RA WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WILL BE KEEPING WITH VCSH/VCTS WORDING FOR STORMS
LATER TODAY (WITH THE FIRST S/WV). OTHERWISE CIGS EXPECTED TO FLIRT
WITH MVFR CAT THIS AFTN. THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF TSRAS STILL AP-
PEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TUES. 41

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 64 66 47 71 / 60 80 100 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 70 75 51 73 / 40 50 100 20 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 72 75 56 73 / 20 30 90 40 0

[weatherdude1108]

It looks like south Texas will have a Winter wonderland in early December according to this run. Freezing drizzle still forecast for Austin.