Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

Leon Lett 93'-94'...hmm not an analog but an interesting winter no less. I think thats the only winter in which DFW received frozen precip every month from October-March and had frequent blast. However no signature storm but plenty of smaller events. Likely helped by Pinatubo's eruption a few years earlier

[gpsnowman]

If you Metroplexers remember, Halloween 1993 saw some frozen stuff falling with temps in the upper 20's. I remember being in a park in Lewisville TX doing something young kids do while witnessing sleet coming down. And then a month later the snow/sleet storm on Thanksgiving. What a fall that was. And then the Cowboys lost to Miami 16-13 on a Pete Stoyanovich field goal if I recall correctly. Leon Lett, sheesh.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS similar with next storm, but a bit different beyond. Arctic front on Friday followed by highs in the 40s for the weekend with a nearly statewide freeze Sunday morning. That is followed shortly by another cold blast. All dry which is hard to believe in a season that rains at every opportunity.

[Ntxw]

I want to see a few more runs to continue the idea to buy, but this has merit if the pattern is true.

This is where we are now, lots of low heights in Alaska and NW Canada and lack of Arctic/Siberian air



This is where we head after a couple of systems

Heights gradually rise around Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska or -EPO



Ridge bridge establishes from the GOA, North Central Canada, and far eastern NA. Supports cold trof in our region. Notice we hang on to the -PNA along with the -EPO. Would dive colder air down the Rio Grande and not southeastward.



If a true block occurs (models won't see one until much closer range if there is) then I'd be thinking of an early season cross polar flow regime Thanksgiving week.

[srainhoutx]

Lengthy and detailed evening briefing from Jeff:

Potential for high impact storm system next Monday and Tuesday.

Yet another El Nino enhanced storm system will move into the SW US and then eastward across TX early next week. Forecast models continue to show an impressive upper level storm system and very strong surface low to affect the state early next week. Sub-tropical jet will remain in place over TX this weekend with a disturbance currently over MX likely to move across the area on Friday…it should be too dry at the surface for any rainfall.

Upper level system will drop down the US west coast and into the SW US on Sunday and really begin to intensify. This intense deep longwave trough will force strong surface pressure falls over NW TX Sunday night into Monday with an impressive mid-November cyclone developing over the central and southern plains. Strong low level jet of 40-60kts develops over coastal TX Monday transporting significant deep layer moisture northward. Upper jet stream is overhead and expect thunderstorms to erupt Monday afternoon in a very highly sheared air mass. Low level jet will be crossed with a powerful 90-120kt mid level jet stream over the area resulting in strong veering of the wind field with height and strong vertical shear. Forecasted low level shear parameters for late Monday into next Tuesday are impressive. Main question is the amount of instability in the warm sector over the region. Dewpoints likely to surge into the lower 70’s and with strong mid level cooling likely as the strong upper level trough tilts negative allowing the mid level cold pool to eject across the warm sector resulting in good instability. Parameters are certainly pointing toward a potentially significant severe weather episode…including tornadoes given all the wind energy…this is something that needs to be watched very closely over the coming days. Some of our worst tornado outbreaks in SE TX have been in the month of November and the worst was in November 1992 when multiple strong tornadoes including a F4 moved across Harris County. Parameters become even more favorable early Tuesday morning with a strong cold front slicing into a highly sheared and moderately unstable air mass. Upper jet goes into a strong split structure over SE TX allowing good lift of the pre-frontal air mass. A squall line with wind damage will be possible along with discrete supercells ahead of the line. If these supercells root near the surface they will likely become tornadic given the strongly sheared air mass.

Moisture advection and low level inflow will be very impressive on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the cold front. Concern for discrete supercell formation in the warm sector with both a severe and flash flood threat. While system looks overall progressive, potential for supercell training could allow rapid build up of rainfall totals as well as multiple rounds of severe weather. Similar event setup on 11-17-2003 which resulted in multiple tornadoes and flash flooding from several training HP supercells over Fort Bend and Harris Counties. Moisture levels peak around 1.8-2.0 inches which is near maximum levels for mid November. Storms will certainly be capable of some intense rainfall rates.

This system deserves attention over the next 72 hours as impacts across much of east TX Monday and Tuesday could be significant.

Very cold air mass surges down the backside of this system with blizzard conditions likely from Colorado into the TX panhandle and eastward into the plains. Cold air mass will plow southward over TX behind the storm system on Wednesday. Secondary potential stronger surge of modified arctic air appears poised to blast southward toward the end of next week with very cold temperatures possible by the weekend before Thanksgiving. ECMWF 850mb temperatures running some significant cold anomalies for that time period…so something to watch.

[Brent]

Well the highlight around Thanksgiving of this GFS run is a hurricane in the Eastern Gulf

[Ntxw]

-EPO signal is getting stronger on Ensembles about the 20th-25th. Guidance are starting to pop 1045-1050mb highs in Western Canada.

But if the Euro and Ensembles are correct it will be followed by an even deeper -EPO the days following into Thanksgiving

[Ralph's Weather]

-EPO signal is getting stronger on Ensembles about the 20th-25th. Guidance are starting to pop 1045-1050mb highs in Western Canada.

But if the Euro and Ensembles are correct it will be followed by an even deeper -EPO the days following into Thanksgiving

I like hearing that. For this next storm the GFS has E TX getting 3+ inches early next week and areas west of there around an inch. As a side note according to the GFS Denver is in line for 4 feet of snow from this storm.

[Ntxw]

I like hearing that. For this next storm the GFS has E TX getting 3+ inches early next week and areas west of there around an inch. As a side note according to the GFS Denver is in line for 4 feet of snow from this storm.

If it occurs, it would be the alignment we all hoped for with the NPAC and El Nino. -EPO, Hudson Bay block, and screaming STJ.

It is also a big travel week.

[Portastorm]

I like hearing that. For this next storm the GFS has E TX getting 3+ inches early next week and areas west of there around an inch. As a side note according to the GFS Denver is in line for 4 feet of snow from this storm.

If it occurs, it would be the alignment we all hoped for with the NPAC and El Nino. -EPO, Hudson Bay block, and screaming STJ.

It is also a big travel week.

Seems like it has been a number of years since we've had a messy Thanksgiving week of weather in Texas. Anecdotally I seem to recall several of them back in the 90s where parts of West Texas/Northwest/Panhandle Texas saw wintry weather and south central and southeast and east Texas saw severe weather followed by cold air. Always made for anxious times for those who had to travel for the holiday.

[Portastorm]

So I've developed a new avatar for myself which pretty much says it all:

via Imgflip Meme Maker

[weatherdude1108]

So I've developed a new avatar for myself which pretty much says it all:

https://i.imgflip.com/u34mk.jpgvia Imgflip Meme Maker

Most excellent (and appropriate) avatar sir!

[ndale]

So I've developed a new avatar for myself which pretty much says it all:

https://i.imgflip.com/u34mk.jpgvia Imgflip Meme Maker

Do I detect a note of frustration, but being from the Austin area I feel your pain.

[KatDaddy]

This might be your year Porta to see some snow!!!!

[TheProfessor]

So I've developed a new avatar for myself which pretty much says it all:

https://i.imgflip.com/u34mk.jpgvia Imgflip Meme Maker

Austin would be the Only city in Texas to not see snow if a storm like the one in the Day After Tomorrow were to occur. (though the storm is not naturally possible with out the intervention of God) lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS continues to cut off this massive low with the ridges connecting over the top of the low, also continues with a cold -EPO blast during turkey week

[Brent]

GFS continues to cut off this massive low with the ridges connecting over the top of the low, also continues with a cold -EPO blast during turkey week

Continues to hint at a storm around Thanksgiving too... it would NOT be a warm storm on this run.

[aggiecutter]

This might be your year Porta to see some snow!!!!

Not gonna happen!

[TheProfessor]

If that Low next week were to stall and die 200-300 miles further east I would see a ton of rain here.

[Ralph's Weather]

For next week the ensemble shows 3 inches of rain for E TX and over an inch across just about the whole state. 4 of 21 12Z GFS Ensembles are showing some snow across N and E Texas for Thanksgiving week.