Texas Fall-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS looking very similar to previous run. A tad slower and further south, but little sensible difference for us. Storms Monday night into Tuesday then cool and dry for the remainder of the week.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like the low isnt digging as deep as models indicated, which is to be expected. Severe weather will be a huge issue though.

One big thing we should be excited about is a BIG snowcover in the southern plains, will help with lower modification of the cold air masses coming through, or when a strong north wind is blowing.

[Ntxw]

FW disco


RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MUCH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON ITS HEELS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY AND MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. IF THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXTREMELY DEEP AND COLD AND COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS SINCE ANY DEVIATION IN TRACK OR INTENSITY COULD GREATLY AFFECT THE EXPECTED WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

[Ralph's Weather]

Holding out hope for a more southern track, but very glad we have social media because western Kansas should be spectacular if the forecast holds.

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't buy a north track just yet still. Though climo favors it. Between 96-144 hours usually shift zones for guidance and too far out to pin.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: I wouldn't buy a north track just yet still. Though climo favors it. Between 96-144 hours usually shift zones for guidance and too far out to pin.

Agreed on waiting to go all in on the Panhandle to Great Lakes track. Am I seeing things right in that the EC ridge is the reason for the NE track?

[Ntxw]

yeah that ridge has a role. Also guidance bundles the leading edge vortmax up north, that doesn't always pan out though sometimes the southern edge can take over.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: yeah that ridge has a role. Also guidance bundles the leading edge vortmax up north, that doesn't always pan out though sometimes the southern edge can take over.

OK, that makes sense. I was wondering why the surface low is forming on the north side. Maybe we get lucky and it actually forms on the southern side. Guess we won't know those details until later.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I propose we expand Lake Texoma by four fold

http://news.weathernationtv.com/2015/11/10/biggest-little-city-world-sees-huge-lake-effect-snow/

Didn't we try that last spring?

[Brent]

Some fantasy land things consistent from the 0z last night:

Wednesday will likely be a chilly and raw day even if there's no precip

A possible freeze for N TX around day 10-11(around November 23-24)

Big storm around Thanksgiving, the 12z is more a heavy rain event but it'll change of course.

[1900hurricane]

The ECMWF's wind profiles for the coming system look amazing. It's yet to be seen if we'll have adequate instability to work with, but I'd be absolutely thrilled to sneak a chase day in on Tuesday before the system kicks east. Just hoping a surging cold front doesn't ruin the warm sector.

[Ntxw]

12z euro hinting at a fairly decent plunge to colder weather thanksgiving week

[Texas Snowman]

I propose we expand Lake Texoma by four fold

http://news.weathernationtv.com/2015/11/10/biggest-little-city-world-sees-huge-lake-effect-snow/

Didn't we try that last spring?

Why yes, yes we did!

And I have the pictures to prove it.

[Texas Snowman]

Big storm around Thanksgiving, the 12z is more a heavy rain event but it'll change of course.

Where's Leon Lett when you need him?!?

[Brent]

So we have some agreement on that much colder air the weekend before Thanksgiving:

[Ralph's Weather]

So we have some agreement on that much colder air the weekend before Thanksgiving:

Looks great. That would have to be a solid freeze for just about the whole state.
12Z GEM showing a bit of backside snow in N TX next Saturday.

[Portastorm]

12z euro hinting at a fairly decent plunge to colder weather thanksgiving week

Oh yeah ... shows lows near 30 in the DFW Metroplex and mid 30s Austin area on Sunday morning, 11/22.

[Ntxw]

While always cautious with such range, that said Euro ensembles supports deep central conus trof. Ridge in the east and...ridge in the Gulf of Alaska! Voila -EPO! Optimistic

[weatherdude1108]

Ugh.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

TWO HIGHLIGHTS EXIST IN THE LONG RANGE WITH THE FIRST BEING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEING POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE SECOND (AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT) BEING A POSSIBLE/LIKELY STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IT IS
TOO EARLY TO GET INTO DETAILS...PLEASE STAY ADVISED ON THIS TIME-
FRAME WITH FORECAST UPDATES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY WEAK
RIDGE WHILE A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. NUMEROUS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITH IN THE BROAD TO NEARLY FLAT RIDGE
THAT...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION AS SOME SUBTLE H5 HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OCCUR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGER TROUGH AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND BACK WEST.

BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL OPEN UP ONCE AGAIN AS A NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE
WILL BE FELT. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 1.7 TO 1.9" ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MUCH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND DYNAMIC FORCING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH QUITE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS FOR A POTENTIAL ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS. THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO KARNES
CITY LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WHICH FROM EXPERIENCE INDICATES A SUPPORTIVE
ATMOSPHERE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE LOW-LVL JET
INCREASES TO NEAR 45-50KT. MODELED MASS AND DIVERGENCE FIELDS
ALSO INDICATE LIKELIHOOD OF INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS THAT THEN
GROW UPSCALE INTO A QLCS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA IN THEIR DAY 5 SEVERE
OUTLOOK. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MID-DAY TUESDAY AS A DRYLINE/COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUT-OFF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE
BASE OF IT STILL LINGERING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER MID TO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE
WEATHER SYSTEM WITH PROGGED 6-10C H925 TEMPS.

[Tireman4]

Big storm around Thanksgiving, the 12z is more a heavy rain event but it'll change of course.

Where's Leon Lett when you need him?!?

Ughh...must you bring that up....Well, here is what the Big Cat is doing...

http://www.dallascowboys.com/team/coach ... /leon-lett