Texas Fall-2015

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 00Z GFS looks pretty interesting next Wednesday-Thursday for northwestern Texas!

[Ntxw]

The 00Z GFS looks pretty interesting next Wednesday-Thursday for northwestern Texas!

CMC had a similar solution a few times. What a deep storm that looks at 5h as it comes out. It will keep us model watching for sure

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 00Z GFS looks pretty interesting next Wednesday-Thursday for northwestern Texas!

CMC had a similar solution a few times. What a deep storm that looks at 5h as it comes out. It will keep us model watching for sure

Indeed! The Euro has been pretty deep with the system as well.

[Ntxw]

The 00Z GFS looks pretty interesting next Wednesday-Thursday for northwestern Texas!

CMC had a similar solution a few times. What a deep storm that looks at 5h as it comes out. It will keep us model watching for sure

Indeed! The Euro has been pretty deep with the system as well.

If not that system there's a following system. Something brewing afoot with these bowling balls? Plus sometimes the models don't see the cold air aloft that works it way down with these type of things until much closer anyway. Maybe wake up the winter gang.

From the 0z GFS

[Yukon Cornelius]

What's up guys? I'm back for the winter fun! Looks like things are pretty interesting for a good winter this year.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Several storm systems to affect the region over the next week.

Strong moisture advection overnight has raised dewpoints by a solid 10-15 degrees across the region as the next storm system rapidly approaches TX this morning. Impressive mid November storm system will intensify over the Midwest today pushing cold front into this increasing moist and unstable air mass over SE TX. Strong jet stream dynamics will come into play mainly north of SE TX this afternoon and early evening allowing the capping inversion (mid level warm temperatures) to erode. Lift from the front will likely help to force surface parcels through the weakening cap by late afternoon allowing the rapid development of showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. Shear profiles will be favorable for damaging winds and even a few isolated tornadoes especially north of I-10. Expect a line of thunderstorms (possibly broken) to cross the area between 600pm and midnight.

Front will clear the coast before sunrise on Thursday with northerly flow in place and a much drier and cooler air mass. Active sub-tropical jet overhead may maintain a scattered high level deck with filtered sun both Thursday and Friday. Clouds return late Friday and…getting ready…clouds will likely remain in place for much of the next week.

Prolonged active weather event starting to shape up for next week with significantly colder temperatures and extended wet weather. Sub-tropical jet stream becomes increasingly active over the weekend. Models are pushing back the onset of rainfall more into later on Sunday now versus Saturday and this seems reasonable given the pattern setup with a slow moving upper level storm system well to our west. Will bring back rain chances and humid conditions on Sunday and increase rain chances more Monday-Tuesday. A powerful cold front looks to cross the region late Tuesday with temperatures tumbling behind the boundary as cold air builds over the northern Rockies. Upper flow looks to remain out of the SW with yet another storm system dropping into the SW US by the end of next week keeping a wet and cold pattern in place. Latest GFS guidance has a high of 58 in Houston next Wednesday.

[Ntxw]

Boy does that storm early to mid next week look interesting run by run. Way too early to determine track or dynamics but continues to be worth watching for. It's one of those systems that could sneak surprises.

[Ralph's Weather]

Boy does that storm early to mid next week look interesting run by run. Way too early to determine track or dynamics but continues to be worth watching for. It's one of those systems that could sneak surprises.

It sure will be interesting to watch. If we can get the surface low south of I-20 then N and NE Tx will be very interesting as the upper levels will support winter weather.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is really trying for a rain/snow mix. Low heads from W TX into N LA, wrapping up with a backside trowel. Surface cold isn't there but aloft its trying.

[Ralph's Weather]

12z GFS is really trying for a rain/snow mix. Low heads from W TX into N LA, wrapping up with a backside trowel. Surface cold isn't there but aloft its trying.

I have been watching this run with interest and it did not disappoint. a dynamic upper low moving directly overhead during the night is a good recipe for a quick couple inches. Consecutive years with mid-Nov snow is probably asking too much, but the trend is in our favor currently.

[Brent]

Oh my... *becomes intrigued* there is some blue over the metro.

[gpsnowman]

Goodness, and that is a week away. Times, they are a changin'.

[Brent]

Good... these 80s can't end soon enough.

[Ntxw]

Euro is trying, at least they are moving towards the idea a deepening system will go fairly far to the south. Possible some severe wx on the warm sector

[Ralph's Weather]

The nice thing about this season is that we will be able to get storms absent of major blocking, though when we do get blocking we could really get some special storms. The modeled storm for next week shows this nicely.

[aggiecutter]

Euro is trying, at least they are moving towards the idea a deepening system will go fairly far to the south. Possible some severe wx on the warm sector

Next weeks storm will probably have a major severe weather outbreak in the deep south, the dixie alley area. JB and RM of weatherbell are already talking about it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

80 knots at 850 level. Thats crazy.

[Ralph's Weather]

Watching the 18Z GFS come in looking stronger with next week's trough.

[vbhoutex]

SALUTING OUR VETERTANS AND ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY!!

What is wrong with this picture? I am in shorts and tank top. Temperature is 81f. Nothing? WRONG ANSWER!!! It is November 11th!! I should be complaining about how cold it is!!

[Ralph's Weather]

So 18Z GFS is stronger next week with the low and with the EC ridge, but it sends the low NE instead of E like the 12Z did so no winter fun this round.