"Patricia-like" E. Pacific Monster Cross-Over to Gulf Of Mex

[chaser1]

While pondering this year's unfolding Super El Nino along with our present and unexpectedly active Atlantic Hurricane Season, my mind then snapped back to the E. Pac's recent record breaking Cat. 5 Hurricane - Patricia.

I began to wonder about a "what if scenario" lets say potentially involving Patricia's evil-twin, where it also formed in the Eastern Pacific and under similar (optimum) conditions but with one slightly different wrinkle. This particular wrinkle would result in a track across Mexico but then truly cross-over into the Gulf of Mexico still as an intact tropical cyclone. Assume such a landfall were to again occur on the Mexico coastline between (approx.) 100W - 105W with an ideal (but realistic) forward speed & motion and resulting in a true cross-over into the GOM. Exactly how intense of a tropical cyclone do you think could survive to re-emerge over water, at the point of entering the Gulf of Mexico on the Atlantic side?

(The question isnothow strong could it re-intensify after entering in the Gulf, but rather how strong of a storm/hurricane to survive the trek across land and specifically at the point of emerging over water in the GOM).

[Alyono]

One could argue Patricia DID cross over, but was transitioning into an extratropical cyclone one it reached the Gulf

[chaser1]

So does that imply that regardless how robust such a hurricane might be, if it were to make landfall that far north along the Mexican coastline, only little of the tropical cyclone's structure would survive - perhaps no more than a depression? I would have thought maybe a larger and equally strong hurricane might emerge in the GOM as a moderate to strong tropical storm, especially if moving ENE at perhaps 15-20 mph?

[Ntxw]

So does that imply that regardless how robust such a hurricane might be, if it were to make landfall that far north along the Mexican coastline, only little of the tropical cyclone's structure would survive - perhaps no more than a depression? I would have thought maybe a larger and equally strong hurricane might emerge in the GOM as a moderate to strong tropical storm, especially if moving ENE at perhaps 15-20 mph?

Not an easy feat. Mexico is very mountainous even more than Hispaniola in the 10-17k ft range. You're talking about an entire chain part of the Rocky Mountains. A more survivable path would be the through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche

[Dean_175]

I think storms have crossed before- but they would be substantially weakened- probably to tropical depression or minimal tropical storm at best. Storms like Patricia lose the gist of their strength very quickly when hitting land--moreso than weaker storms. It takes a lot of energy to keep a category 5 going, and a storm that strong will weaken below category 5 almost immediately when its energy source is cut off at landfall. So being a Patricia like storm doesn't have much bearing on how strong it will be when it emerges on the other side(an unlikely feat to begin with).

A storm can persist as a tropical depression for long distances over land- but Mexico has mountainous terrain and this presents a significant barrier for any storms passing.