2015 Global model runs discussion

[wxman57]

The GFS is trying to develop something near the NE Leewards in the medium to long range and has been doing so for the past few days of its runs. The CMC and NAVGEM shows it as well while the ECMWF shows an area of disturbed weather developing but no development.

GFS:
http://i.imgur.com/WpHvkfW.gif

EC:
http://i.imgur.com/v8pihGc.gif

That's a totally different system in the 12Z EC. The GFS develops a wave that passes north of the NE Caribbean early next week. The Euro develops a wave on a front that moves off the East U.S. Coast.

[gatorcane]

Wxman I am talking about the disturbed weather the ECMWF graphic is showing north of Puerto Rico, not the system much further north that is stronger. That area north of Puerto Rico seems to originate from the same wave the GFS is developing:

[gatorcane]

Well there still appears to be some model support for the tropical wave currently well east of the Leewards. The GFS and NAVGEM insist that it will develop near the NE Leewards and recurve north of the Leewards.

The ECMWF/GEM/JMA bring a weaker vorticity WNW through the NE Leewards or Caribbean. On that path we would expect this wave to bring some good rains to the Caribbean islands.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS with another run showing development north of the Leewards.

[Frank2]

Yes, possible since there is disturbed weather down there this evening from two waves in the central Caribbean - both are moving very slowly westward...

A fair amount of lightning associated with the one just to our southeast as well...

[gatorcane]

The EC has jumped on board with the wave east of the Leewards

[gatorcane]

Past couple of runs of the GFS shows a mess forming in the SW Caribbean in the long-range. Looks like a moisture surge into the SW/Western Caribbean due to a powerful frontal system that moves across the United States with front moving all the way down into the NW Caribbean:

[Weatherwatcher98]

Past couple of runs of the GFS shows a mess forming in the SW Caribbean in the long-range. Looks like a moisture surge into the SW/Western Caribbean due to a powerful frontal system that moves across the United States with front moving all the way down into the NW Caribbean:

11 days

[chaser1]

Past couple of runs of the GFS shows a mess forming in the SW Caribbean in the long-range. Looks like a moisture surge into the SW/Western Caribbean due to a powerful frontal system that moves across the United States with front moving all the way down into the NW Caribbean:

11 days

Seems perfectly fitting with a front draped down into the W. Carib., especially given that Mother Nature is still convinced that we're in October (not November lol). Curious to see how consistant each updated run remains as well as if/when the Euro jumps on it.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Latest run still shows it, but it is further north and deepening, after it crosses Florida. When the euro bites I will watch it.

[blp]

The GFS continues to develop an area in W.carribean in the 10 day range now the FIM has joined in. Season might not be over yet.




Also long range CFS has it as well.

[FireRat]

Jeez blp that GFS run has one HUGE storm down there!

[blp]

Jeez blp that GFS run has one HUGE storm down there!

The good news is that image is the FIM model not the GFS, sorry if that was confusing.

Also, the GFS last two runs seems to pushed back and even dropped the idea so might be another phantom. I should have waited till after 00z run to post, I jumped the gun.

[FireRat]

Cool no problem blp, thanks for the clarification and the update. I guess we'll see what happens, if this is just a phantom or more. The area still warrants some attention as we head into next week IMO

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi tweeted this morning that he thinks there may be one more storm coming.

[CourierPR]

Is that unsettled weather in the western Caribbean possibly a candidate for future development?

[chaser1]

Is that unsettled weather in the western Caribbean possibly a candidate for future development?

I'd say "yes" if strictly considering the healthy appearance of the wave and the generally favorable conditions that have allowed 11 named storms to form so far this season.

On the other hand there is no model support and I'm guessing that's most likely due to its proximity to interaction with land (Central America/Yucatan). There is a weak front across Florida but little to no upper support, the result of which would normally pull that wave up and to the northwest. Instead, here we are in this late odd-ball season and still having strong waves progressing westward by Easterly tradewinds that typically slacken by mid November (heck, sometimes by early October). So, unless this wave can find a way to gain some latitude or maybe re-emerge in the Bay of Canned Peaches (kidding, "Bay of Campeche" that is), than I doubt it'll have the time and space to develop.

[CourierPR]

Does anyone think we will see one more storm? Bastardi thinks one may be on the horizon in the 7-12 day period.

[WPBWeather]

Does anyone think we will see one more storm? Bastardi thinks one may be on the horizon in the 7-12 day period.

Good chance we will. I say that because JB has made many good points that countered the conventional "wisdom" for El Nino years over the past months and because too many models have failed in genesis this year.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z gfs and canadian have what appear to be a TD/TS near the Bahamas at 210hrs and 240hrs respectively


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