Disturbance near Hispaniola/SE Bahamas - is Invest 94L

[gatorcane]

Shear is decreasing over the system and out ahead of it where it is projected to go:

[northjaxpro]

This is why imo we will see this system develop over the next 72 hours. Conditions look rather favorable once this system gets north of Hispaniola.

[cycloneye]

7 PM EST up to 50% in 5 days.

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northeastern Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles into the
Atlantic is associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough
and a west-northwestward moving tropical wave. Some gradual
development of this disturbance is possible by early next week when
it is forecast to be near or east of the Bahamas. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over the Lesser
Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[northjaxpro]

Up to 50% development chances in 5 days on the 7 a.m. TWO by NHC. Should be Invest 94L shortly.

[cycloneye]

Recon for Monday afternoon if Necessary.

Code: Select all

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
      NEAR 24.0N 74.0W AT 09/1800Z.

[Evil Jeremy]

Very curious why this has not been tagged as an invest yet. Anyways, doesn't look as healthy this morning, convection scattered. Given the time of year, I think 50% is a tad too high. At the worst, we will have a weak Tropical Storm re-curving around the Central Bahamas. If recon flies for this (or 93L), that has to be considered a vacation for them compared to Patricia.

[SouthDadeFish]

The GFS has consistently shown development once the disturbance passes Hispaniola. The interaction with the upper level low should aid in triggering convection and I think 50% is a very reasonable chance for genesis. Kate on the way?

[CourierPR]

The GFS has consistently shown development once the disturbance passes Hispaniola. The interaction with the upper level low should aid in triggering convection and I think 50% is a very reasonable chance for genesis. Kate on the way?

What will be the time frame, in your opinion?

[cycloneye]

1 PM EST:

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northeastern Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles into the
Atlantic is associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough
and a west-northwestward moving tropical wave. There are no signs
of organization at this time. However, some gradual development of
this disturbance is possible by early next week when it is forecast
to be near or east of the Bahamas. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over the Lesser Antilles, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[gatorcane]

The GFS has been showing development going back at least a week ago on its runs. Should it develop, kudos to the GFS as it was the first model to show development.

[chaser1]

Just as an aside while we're looking to the east, there's another rather interesting spin down low around 10N and 50W. This wave is moving west at a nice clip and if it survives may be something also to look at in a week or so, perhaps in the W. Carib.

[emeraldislenc]

Still no invest? Maybe by Sunday. The wave to the east has flared up good point!

[gatorcane]

convection is on the increase. Should be an invest soon.

[fci]

50% and no Invest.
Wow.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the models have shifted a little bit west with the ECMWF ensemble mean MSLP anomaly and GFS operational bringing a low/wave through the Central and NW Bahamas though the ECMWF operational is still just east of the Bahamas.

Latest SAT image shows convection on the increase and a distinct WNW motion of this system.

I am expecting an invest designation any moment now.

[emeraldislenc]

Will it be an invest tonight?

[Hammy]

Model support looks to be decreasing. Euro shows a weak short-lived depression and GFS doesn't really show much of anything now.

[jinftl]

Potential formation area of cone covers part of hispanola now



An area of cloudiness and showers extending northward from the
east-central Caribbean Sea across the Dominican Republic and Puerto
Rico is associated with a surface trough. There are no signs of
organization at this time, however some gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern and central
Bahamas. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent



windows screenshot

[AJC3]

The thread is now locked as this disturbance has been designated Invest 94L

94L thread: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117696