Disturbance near Hispaniola/SE Bahamas - is Invest 94L

[cycloneye]

Made a thread about this area as the models show it and now NHC begins to mention it.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Models are not too bullish.

7 AM EST.

An area of low pressure could form near or to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[northjaxpro]

It seems like more the middle of summer than early November right now. Two areas of interests in the North Atlantic basin this morning. Quite remarkable!! Actually, imo, this system near the Leeward Islands currently has the better prospects of potential development the next couple of days as shear looks to be not terribly bad in this area in the next 3-5 days or so.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS turns the vorticity west towards the Bahamas, while the GEM has it doing a loop just east of the Bahamas. The NAVGEM turns the vorticity west too while weakening it in the Bahamas. This suggests some more ridging might be present than previously thought but shear might be there too as the GFS weakens the low as it turns west.

Heading west on the 12Z at 108 hours, 850MB vort below:

[cycloneye]

1 PM EST:

An area of low pressure could form near or to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[northjaxpro]

Latest GFS turns the vorticity west towards the Bahamas, while the GEM has it doing a loop just east of the Bahamas. The NAVGEM turns the vorticity west too while weakening it in the Bahamas. This suggests some more ridging might be present than previously thought but shear might be there too as the GFS weakens the low as it turns west.

Heading west on the 12Z at 108 hours, 850MB vort below:

Westerlies will pick up after about 5 days or so which will likely impart shear on this system. Any potential development would best have to occur over the next 3- 5 days imo before shear increases again. There is a building High forecast to come down later into this weekend into the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region, so there may be enough ridging to pull this tropical wave more west in the coming 5- day period.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF recurves but it seems like a close call to me as the ridge builds in to the NW.

[cycloneye]

That is JB's take.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 11m11 minutes ago  State College, PA
area in ne Caribbean going to be an east side weighted gale center in 3-5 days just e Bahamas.Like Patricia in gulf, may get no respect

[gatorcane]

One would think an invest tag is in the future for this system where we can get some more model runs, saved loop with the area just east of the Leewards. Models have had a develop and recurve bias this season so wouldn't surprise me if they shift more west.

[Weatherwatcher98]

One would think an invest tag is in the future for this system where we can get some more model runs, saved loop with the area just east of the Leewards. Models have had a develop and recurve bias this season so wouldn't surprise me if they shift more west.

Nice curvature

[northjaxpro]

Well, this area is beginning to look a bit more interesting as the day has progressed. Shear is still present over the system currently. However, this disturbed area near the Leeward Islands has definitely expanded in size and the upper level low to the west of the system apppears to be gradually weakening as it drifts west. Shear is forecast to be at marginal levels (15-20 kts) the next 72 hours or so. This would not be crippling shear and if this plays out, there may be some potential for this system to gradually develop this weekend as it moves northwest.

I think this area could be invest tagged within the next 24 hours. Still tracking the tropics as we near the end of the first week of November. Definitely worth monitoring.

[cycloneye]

7 PM EST up to 30%.What you said northjaxpro is spot on.

A large area of cloudiness and showers near the Leeward Islands
extending eastward for several hundred miles is associated with the
interaction of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave. Although
upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for development over
the next couple of days, heavy rain is possible in the Leeward
Islands while the system moves through the area. By late in the
weekend, when the system is forecast to be near or north of Puerto
Rico, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable, and some development of the disturbance is possible early
next week while it moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Hurricaneman]

Im surprised they didn't go 10% in 48 hrs based on the look

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[Hammy]

Is this the system that was showing up as a hybrid system last week?

[Hurricaneman]

Is this the system that was showing up as a hybrid system last week?

I think so but its more likely to be tropical

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[fci]

Surprised it's 30% and not tagged yet.

[northjaxpro]

If the current trends I am seeing continues, it will be designated an invest within the next 24 hours, as I stated above earlier. Definitely by Saturday. NHC expects the main potential development of this system to occur starting Saturday as it heads near or just north of Puerto Rico.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS is back to a recurve but the 12Z had it getting trapped by a ridge that builds in over the SE United States. The 12Z moved it west while weakening it. I can't believe we are even tracking something this late in the season out there. Meanwhile, summer-like conditions continue across Florida...not looking like November out there at all. No doubt this powerful El Nino is causing some interesting weather patterns as we head deeper into fall.

[northjaxpro]

The High Pressure forecast to build down into the Mid -Atlantic by Sunday and continuing early next week may be a key factor down the road with this potential system. It could cause this system to be blocked for a short time and meander around in weak steering just east of the Bahamas Sunday -Tuesday period. However, an inverted coastal trough is forecast to develop Sunday as a significant northeast wind surge develops off the SE GA / NE FL area. The coastal trough, should it develop, is then expected to lift off east of the Carolinas early next week. This inverted trough may provide the alley to move this potential tropical system out to sea early next week.

Keep in mind that westerly shear also will pick up again after the next 120 hours, so if this system develops, it will probably be a lopsided cyclone, with most of the strongest convection and energy being on the eastern side of this system.

[cycloneye]

7 AM EST:

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from near the
Lesser Antilles eastward for several hundred miles is associated
with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a west-
northwestward moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are currently
not conducive for development. However, environmental conditions
are forecast to become more favorable late in the weekend, when the
system is forecast to be near or north of Puerto Rico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over the Lesser
Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent