Texas Fall-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

Oh man! That could be a 14-incher, like San Antonio had back in 1985!

Training storms and 35 degrees could pile up quick. Fun to dream.

Oh yeah. I meant snow. They had a record snow back on January 11-13th, 1985. The temperatures were only like 27. I lived through it. That was amazing! I always dream of that day happening again.

But yeah, 35 and training storms could add up quickly.

Yea I meant snow. Hope we can get a big snow in this winter because I missed the big one in 2010 because I was still at A&M where we got little or nothing from that one.

[texas1836]

24' of snow, I'd like to see it here. This Winter would be my best bet. I've seen 12", I just need 12" more on top. What's the ratio, 10" of snow = 1" of rain? I guess it's possible during an El Nino.

[Texas Snowman]

Tweet from Joe Bastardi: "That Euro alarms me. I dont know about you, but a global model with that kind of precip pattern is ugly."

Is he talking current event with heavy rain and severe weather threat?

[aggiecutter]

Tornado Watch just issued for most of the FWD CWA.

People keep talking about future possibilities of winter weather. However, as some of us have pointed out, this late fall-winter will be known for severe weather and floods, not winter weather. Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

November is the second tornado season for sure. The HRRR did not look pretty when i looked at it a few hours ago

[Texas Snowman]

Tornado warning in Oklahoma: "@severestudios: Near Okemah, OK -- RT @Jeff_Piotrowski- Breaking debris falling from the sky on I-40. In the tornado warning now.#okwx"

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1212 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 531 IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO COOPER LINE THROUGH 8PM. JUST ISSUED NEW
ZONE PACKAGE TO INCLUDE THE WATCH AND TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE MANY SITES ARE NOW IN THE 80S. 75

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
331 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OUR UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL END THIS
WEEKEND.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A 100+ KNOT JET THAT EXTENDS
DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS WITH THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT AIDING
FORCING FROM ABOVE. A DRYLINE OVER WEST TEXAS IS AIDING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HELPING TO PUSH THIS CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNSTABLE AND HAS
ENOUGH SFC-1KM HELICITY TO PRODUCE STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS SOME
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID EVENING AT LEAST. THE ACTIVITY COMING OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY IS OF CONCERN AS IT CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THIS
SYSTEM AND THE UPSTREAM LINEAR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO
ONE EXTENSIVE BAND OF RAIN/STORMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN
CORES AND ECHO TRAINING THAT WILL PRODUCE RAIN SWATCHES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN AS IS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW. THUS...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN THIS TIME PERIOD IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...A SECOND SURGE AND MORE WIND
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE RAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AND THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH LOWS IN THE
40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

TEMPERATURES TURN WARMER TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

Raining hard here in DT FTW

[weatherdude1108]

I think there was a forecast bust here today. We got light rain this morning, and breaks in the clouds the rest of the day. There is another shot at heavy rain when the front arrives later tonight. The caveat today I heard was there was a "lid" capping the atmosphere and preventing any heavy stuff from forming. It was supposed to erode this afternoon. I see pops to our west. I'll take a good old fashion squall line with heavy rain, lightning, and wind gusts. The other threats I can do without.
It looks like the "El Nino Parade of Storms" is here.


FXUS64 KEWX 052108
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
308 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES HAS LED TO A WARM AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN
THE LOW-LEVELS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL
TAKE PLACE WEST OF I-35/NORTH OF I-10. AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS
IN STORE BY LATE EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE EVENING
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO
NORTHWARD. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS TO REMOVE EDWARDS COUNTY AS IT APPEARS THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF EDWARDS COUNTY. WE/LL
STILL MENTION RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW...IT
WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL MENTION A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT...WE
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 50-60% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS
ON SATURDAY. DRIER AIR FINALLY BRINGS A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THIS
TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

[TarrantWx]

Tornado warning for NE Tarrant County. This escalated quickly

404
WFUS54 KFWD 052217
TORFWD
TXC439-052245-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0110.151105T2217Z-151105T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
417 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 417 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH RICHLAND
HILLS...OR OVER WATAUGA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTHLAKE...TROPHY CLUB AND ROANOKE AROUND 430 PM CST.
GRAPEVINE AROUND 435 PM CST.
FLOWER MOUND AROUND 440 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
WESTLAKE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[TheProfessor]

Just had to tell my Sister where she should take shelter at my old high school.

[TarrantWx]

Tornado ripped a roof off an office building about 1 mile to my south at 35 and Meacham. Roof landed on some cars in the parking lot. Looks like a parade of supercells setting up along the cold front with baseball sized hail in Wise and Denton counties. The sun that came out this afternoon really helped destabilize the atmosphere today.

[gpsnowman]

Very strange to turn on the local channels to see tornado coverage. Weather is amazing no matter what month or what you believe. It is November 5th with rain, hail, wind, and tornadoes. Amazing. The warmth and humidity for this time of year is very rare, a spring time event normally. Amazing to watch this all unfold so suddenly. Everyone stay safe.

[TarrantWx]

Storms in Denton and Wise county have put out an outflow boundary into SE Denton, NW Tarrant, and NE Parker county. That should choke off some of the inflow into those storms. But it's something to keep an eye on for any potential OFB interaction as storms move in from the west.

[ravyrn]

Tornado ripped a roof off an office building about 1 mile to my south at 35 and Meacham. Roof landed on some cars in the parking lot. Looks like a parade of supercells setting up along the cold front with baseball sized hail in Wise and Denton counties. The sun that came out this afternoon really helped destabilize the atmosphere today.

Here's a video of it. Be warned, there's a good bit of profanity.

[TarrantWx]

Ntxw, what's your take on the AO forecasted to go 5-6 SD's positive? After being negative most of the summer and fall so far is this a flip in the trend or a small blip before it goes negative again?

[TheProfessor]

I like the 18z GFS, too bad the best part is in Fantasy land though

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, what's your take on the AO forecasted to go 5-6 SD's positive? After being negative most of the summer and fall so far is this a flip in the trend or a small blip before it goes negative again?

Crazy positive. The stratosphere is cold and there is no sign yet of anything to disturb it. And to boot the EPO is about to go very positive as well. While the models do show signs of some cold air long range there is nothing to support such outcomes in the foreseeable future. So just fun runs. Any kind of disruptions of the +AO/+EPO regime will have to start soon to save the second half of November. Don't see any at this time. Luckily we are not torching like the rest of the country thanks to the subtropical jet. Outside of our little Texas and southwest bubble, records are falling.

I would not worry too much yet. It's quite normal for the AO to actually be positive in November as the far north bundles cold. If it is still doing that by late November then I'd be a little more worried. Nuri last year definitely pumped heat up there to perturb the vortex.

As for this current system, so far the rain here at my locale has been a dud. There was a period half an hour ago of heavy rain for about 15 minutes. That was about it.

[Brent]

Bust here... 10 minutes of heavy rain

*awaits the cold air*

[Ptarmigan]

Oh man! That could be a 14-incher, like San Antonio had back in 1985!

Training storms and 35 degrees could pile up quick. Fun to dream.

Oh yeah. I meant snow. They had a record snow back on January 11-13th, 1985. The temperatures were only like 27. I lived through it. That was amazing! I always dream of that day happening again.

But yeah, 35 and training storms could add up quickly.

I look forward to a huge freeze.